UFC 244 Masvidal vs Diaz

In this thread.
"Look at my marvelous units and impeccable ROI" impressive sherbros.


Still some dull convo for such sharp fellows. I'm here for the fat lines not to see you guys blow your wads all of the thread.
Master bettors/ masterbaters you be the judge.
 
Any one see a strong PTV for Acre? Kinda liking the DawaDude here haven't finished this one up though
 
Any one see a strong PTV for Acre? Kinda liking the DawaDude here haven't finished this one up though
Yea, arce has pretty good hands and takedowns

dawadude is a slug off his back

dunno if I want to play it though
 
Any one see a strong PTV for Acre? Kinda liking the DawaDude here haven't finished this one up though

I am only worried about his grappling. Hakeem got taken down by Bochniak and had a "close" fight with him. I dont remember why it was split, i had Hakeem pretty clearly. Acre has used his grappling before to win rounds and get chokes. I didnt like how easy Bochniak scored the 2 takedowns he got.
 
Yea, arce has pretty good hands and takedowns

dawadude is a slug off his back

dunno if I want to play it though

Appreciate it, yea I may have to pass if he hasn't been brushing up on his grappling.
I'm still scarred from watching Michael Johnsons level change based narcolepsy kick in after a single TD was landed.
Only picked the flake because I thought he had a solid ground game.

I am only worried about his grappling. Hakeem got taken down by Bochniak and had a "close" fight with him. I dont remember why it was split, i had Hakeem pretty clearly. Acre has used his grappling before to win rounds and get chokes. I didnt like how easy Bochniak scored the 2 takedowns he got.
Probably the TD and Bochniak getting control time from "walking down" Daw. decent bobbing and weaving from Bochniak but he barely threw/landed from what I remember. Probably says more Boch's offense than Daw's defense though.
 
Glad someone else agrees there I really think we could see another Gane v Mayes type style match up.
Luque fights in burst, WB has always been a sniper. If you give him range he will try to land bombs/or at least probe for points through all but the best guard.
Still think the best value could
WB dec/points with something like Luque inside the distance. The guy is strong and has solid boxing/grappling.
Perry impressed me more in their fight.
Barberena gave him a hard time not too long ago and he threw some lazy shots.... some of which landed clean.
Same Barberena that got light up and KOed by a body shot or something from Randy Brown?

My main issue with betting against Luque is he's always coming hard. I don't see him standing off Wonderboy and giving him time to work, he gets stronger every round. I maybe lean towards a Wonderboy decision, but the 3rd round could well be squeaky bum time.
 
My main issue with betting against Luque is he's always coming hard. I don't see him standing off Wonderboy and giving him time to work, he gets stronger every round. I maybe lean towards a Wonderboy decision, but the 3rd round could well be squeaky bum time.
My main thing is his volume. Yeah the guy is strong and hits hard I think he suffers a trade off for that muscle mass though.
He reminds me slightly of Yoel a bit willing to use his high guard and look for big counter shots too while waiting for a chance for a big blitz attack.
After those blitz attacks he is back to waiting behind his block for another big chance.
Not saying Luque has bad cardio but I do think WB has a big edge in cardio/volume.
Luque seems to throw very little when he is meet with another technical striker.
79 total strikes in 3rs against Graves, 64 total strikes in 3rs against Edwards (grappling probably affected that one).
He threw 180ish total against Perry but only land like 85 ish (Perry won that anywhere but Latin America).
It was 2016 but in 5rs Thompson threw 274 total strikes against Mcdonald even if only 124 landed that is a hell of a pace to keep and still manages the energy for his crazy post fight flips.
Just think his pace, lack of constant pressure play into WB'S game well here.
Not exactly insider info but that open workout from WB showed his cardio seems to be on point.
That and I really like the end where he talked about having his mouth guard shaved in the front to allow him to breath more without having to unclinch jaw and risk being caught while getting air.
Same mouth piece he seems to have had for all his fights ( nothing crazy on that last bit but I thought it was cool, wondering if Pettis caught him breathing in?)
 
Before everyone gets carried away with Walker RD1



Though obviously the chance of it lessens the later it goes


Love the guy in the red shirt standing up and yelling "KURWA" after Mackowiak gets kneed.
 
Hate to stat cap but I'm at work and probably won't get to really tape much more until tomorrow.
Likeing the Hakeem D. more from the stats, in his past 3 or 4 fights Hakeem had been takendown 2 times on 17 listed attempts. Both times by Bochniak despite Boch attemping 12 TD's in just that fight.
Acre has 2 successfull TDS out of 7 in his last 3 fights.
Not doubting he can wrestle but pressure grappling doesn't seem to be a big part of Acre's game.
 
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I'm actually on Till here despite backing Gastelum vs Rob and Izzy.

It's always quite a gamble when someone with questionable cardio moves up a weight class, but I think Till's striking is just going to be so much more fluid.

Gastelum hits like a truck, and has wrestling to boot, but we seldomly see him use that wrestling.

Everyone on here has been proclaiming how Kelvin is a terrible matchup for Till, but I actually think it's the other way around.

I'll elaborate more on it later in the week.

Funny how Gastelums wrestling is legit but got outwrestled by Weidman.

Funny how Gastelum hits like a truck but couldnt finish the most chinny fighter in the division (Weidman).

I'm on Till as well. I think the 3 rounds favors him. If he KOd Masvidal this line would be closer to -120-150 for Gastelum. -200 is insanity.
 
Funny how Gastelums wrestling is legit but got outwrestled by Weidman.

Funny how Gastelum hits like a truck but couldnt finish the most chinny fighter in the division (Weidman).

I'm on Till as well. I think the 3 rounds favors him. If he KOd Masvidal this line would be closer to -120-150 for Gastelum. -200 is insanity.

Yeah but.. He didn't KO Masvidal. I don't even know what that means. If Masvidal never KO'ed Ben Askren and got submitted he wouldn't be fighting Nate Diaz this week? What are you talking about.
 
Funny how Gastelums wrestling is legit but got outwrestled by Weidman.

Funny how Gastelum hits like a truck but couldnt finish the most chinny fighter in the division (Weidman).

I'm on Till as well. I think the 3 rounds favors him. If he KOd Masvidal this line would be closer to -120-150 for Gastelum. -200 is insanity.
Getting outwrestled by Weidman doesn't mean his wrestling is automatically bad. Weidman's a big All American Wrestler, Renzo Gracie black belt and ADCC champ and Gastelum still wasn't held down easily and dropped Chris early in the fight. Gas also dropped or KOd every guy he's fought since going back to 185, he's clearly got solid power.

You're playing some weird MMA math there using Gastelums loss against a completely different opponent to justify a bet.
 
Funny how Gastelums wrestling is legit but got outwrestled by Weidman.

Funny how Gastelum hits like a truck but couldnt finish the most chinny fighter in the division (Weidman).

I'm on Till as well. I think the 3 rounds favors him. If he KOd Masvidal this line would be closer to -120-150 for Gastelum. -200 is insanity.

So getting outwrestled by Chris Weidman means that your wrestling isn't legit? Don't really see how his power is even up for debate.

 
Gas basically killed Wideman at the end of the first

Till is shite, all hype. He knocked out Cowboy and that is it, what else has he done that's shown him to be high level?

His career is a knock out over Cowboy. A hometown decision over Wonderboy that a lot of people would say he lost but either way it was razor close and then somehow a title shot? No idea why that ever happened. He gets embarrassed, easily beaten and throws about 5 strikes the whole fight. Then he comes back to face Masvidal and gets flat lined.

How does anything about his performances make people think he can take on a legit middle weight top 3 fighter at this stage in his career? I don't think Kelvin is amazing, he's just good at what he does, but I still think he's miles ahead of Till.

He probably gets knocked out again in a similar fashion
 
Yeah but.. He didn't KO Masvidal. I don't even know what that means. If Masvidal never KO'ed Ben Askren and got submitted he wouldn't be fighting Nate Diaz this week? What are you talking about.

I'm saying in MMA unlike other sports is very unforgiving. If Masvidal fought Till /7x Till maybe wins 4/5? But in that one fight he lost.

Till had him rocked and couldnt put him away.

My point is people (especially on here) overreact to what the outcome just was. It's called recency bias and it's a huge factor in sports betting.

I think we get good value on Till here because of his KO to Masvidal. Additionally I think we also get great value for Diaz because of Masvidals string of KOs.
 
I'm saying in MMA unlike other sports is very unforgiving. If Masvidal fought Till /7x Till maybe wins 4/5? But in that one fight he lost.

Till had him rocked and couldnt put him away.

My point is people (especially on here) overreact to what the outcome just was. It's called recency bias and it's a huge factor in sports betting.

I think we get good value on Till here because of his KO to Masvidal. Additionally I think we also get great value for Diaz because of Masvidals string of KOs.

They'll both lose
 
Gas basically killed Wideman at the end of the first

Till is shite, all hype. He knocked out Cowboy and that is it, what else has he done that's shown him to be high level?

His career is a knock out over Cowboy. A hometown decision over Wonderboy that a lot of people would say he lost but either way it was razor close and then somehow a title shot? No idea why that ever happened. He gets embarrassed, easily beaten and throws about 5 strikes the whole fight. Then he comes back to face Masvidal and gets flat lined.

How does anything about his performances make people think he can take on a legit middle weight top 3 fighter at this stage in his career? I don't think Kelvin is amazing, he's just good at what he does, but I still think he's miles ahead of Till.

He probably gets knocked out again in a similar fashion

How can someone be shite yet at the same time have a "razor close" fight with one of the best fighters in the world?

wut

Till is legit, and the move to 185 is a good one. I'm not saying he'll win, but he definitely CAN win.

inb4 location
 
@ill800 got a little tape in on Arce
Highly highly recommend his last fight vs Erosa if you haven't seen it already.
Arce was a -800 favorite in that bout and it looked a whole lot more like a pickem to me.
He doesn't seem to fight rangey strikers well at all. Eroasa walked him down for most of that fight until he was Koed.
Erosa was begging to be slept that whole fight dropping his hands and literally walk forward with tubeman arm punches for most of the bout.
He had way to much success doing that putting Arce to the cage despite just standing in front of him with his hands at his hip with a tall man defense.
Not sure what the price is but Dawodu Ko might be worth a stab, I think Arce gets blasted by a better striker here only way I think he wins is lay and pray grappling if he can even get Hakeem down (still digging at his TDD but the stats look good)
 
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