UFC on ESPN 7 Overeem vs Rozenstruik

[325underdog]

Not seeing much talk about Rob Font. Seems like a 5 star lock? @ApplesVild i know you are big on Font. Actually it was your post earlier that got me on board.

 

[null]

oh I didn’t meant like an actual argument lol. Just a saying. I feel like Struve’s specialty is the arm triangle and I can see that happening pretty easily against Rothwell so I was curious why you felt so strongly that it wouldn’t happen

In Rothwell's career he's been subbed only twice in 48 pro fights. I don't recall the circumstances of both without going back and watching them. But he doesn't spend a lot of time on his back to even be in a position to be arm triangled. Usually fighters that are much worse grapplers and who end up on their back succumb to an arm triangle by a fighter who is a far superior grappler like Struve or Jacare or someone like that working over some shitty grappler once they get them down. That's not really the case here so I don't know why you would envision such a specific thing happening. Struve does have long limbs so he's always a danger even off his back though. I would say a triangle victory off his back is more likely than an arm triangle but neither one is all that likely. This probably is a lame heavyweight gasfest that mostly ends up being contested on the feet anyway. Rothwell late stoppage or decision are the most likely outcomes in my opinion, followed by Sturve KO if he finally learned how to use his reach after all these years and Struve submission followed by Struve decision in dead last likelihood.

 

[ApplesVild]

Quarantillo sub at 10.00... Kilburn KO at 8.00... Worth a sprinkle

 

[BigNick100]

Not seeing much talk about Rob Font. Seems like a 5 star lock? @ApplesVild i know you are big on Font. Actually it was your post earlier that got me on board.

Font is far from a lock here, value on Simon imo.

 

[BigNick100]

Friends don't let friends bet two dinosaur HW's at the tail end of their careers, easy pass fight imo.

 

[Xuh]

Ladd ITD 3.50
Calvillo ITD 4.20 (appropriately) (or SUB 5.0)
Jandiroba ITD 3.50 (or SUB 4.25)

Bet all three, only need 1 to hit for profit

 

[TrueAscension]

In Rothwell's career he's been subbed only twice in 48 pro fights. I don't recall the circumstances of both without going back and watching them. But he doesn't spend a lot of time on his back to even be in a position to be arm triangled. Usually fighters that are much worse grapplers and who end up on their back succumb to an arm triangle by a fighter who is a far superior grappler like Struve or Jacare or someone like that working over some shitty grappler once they get them down. That's not really the case here so I don't know why you would envision such a specific thing happening. Struve does have long limbs so he's always a danger even off his back though. I would say a triangle victory off his back is more likely than an arm triangle but neither one is all that likely. This probably is a lame heavyweight gasfest that mostly ends up being contested on the feet anyway. Rothwell late stoppage or decision are the most likely outcomes in my opinion, followed by Sturve KO if he finally learned how to use his reach after all these years and Struve submission followed by Struve decision in dead last likelihood.

Ya I mean if I hadn't watched Rothwell's last fight, I'd say he knocks Struve out in less than a minute so maybe I am suffering from recency bias a bit here. Its a pass fight for me but I like your analysis hence the question to ya. BOL on your bets brotha,.

 

[ill800]

Ya I mean if I hadn't watched Rothwell's last fight, I'd say he knocks Struve out in less than a minute so maybe I am suffering from recency bias a bit here. Its a pass fight for me but I like your analysis hence the question to ya. BOL on your bets brotha,.

yea he looked awful in his last fight. But he’s still better than struve

 

[Hellowhosthat]

In Rothwell's career he's been subbed only twice in 48 pro fights. I don't recall the circumstances of both without going back and watching them. But he doesn't spend a lot of time on his back to even be in a position to be arm triangled. Usually fighters that are much worse grapplers and who end up on their back succumb to an arm triangle by a fighter who is a far superior grappler like Struve or Jacare or someone like that working over some shitty grappler once they get them down. That's not really the case here so I don't know why you would envision such a specific thing happening. Struve does have long limbs so he's always a danger even off his back though. I would say a triangle victory off his back is more likely than an arm triangle but neither one is all that likely. This probably is a lame heavyweight gasfest that mostly ends up being contested on the feet anyway. Rothwell late stoppage or decision are the most likely outcomes in my opinion, followed by Sturve KO if he finally learned how to use his reach after all these years and Struve submission followed by Struve decision in dead last likelihood.

One was against Gonzaga (no shame there) and the other was nearly 15 years ago.

I dont see Struve subbing Ben, Struve catches people with no grappling chops and Ben is a decent grappler who's been in with multiple black belts.

 

[Oblivian]

Do people see Wiman getting subbed here? He's never been subbed and has a tricky ground game. I can definitely see him getting finished, but I think a sub is pretty damn unlikely unless he's completely rocked.

 

[BatBoyJG]

Not seeing much talk about Rob Font. Seems like a 5 star lock? @ApplesVild i know you are big on Font. Actually it was your post earlier that got me on board.

Don't do it, listen to @BigNick100 and I.

 

[ApplesVild]

I favour Font but it could just as easily be a case of Ricky getting the takedowns early and often. His striking sucks though and Font has decent power and a sharp jab so really take your pick.

I just think it's going to be easier for Font to improve his TDD and get it to a respectable level than it is for Ricky to bridge the striking gap.

We'll probably know pretty early which way the fight is going to go and live betting maybe the way to go.

 

[BatBoyJG]

Podcast breakdown I did for this weeks fight card. Give it a listen, and tail or fade.

 

[thehighking]

Rather than trying to guess who's going down...why not go with the safer Under 1.5 rounds.

Let's talk about Yana and Ladd. WHY is Ladd such a big fav? I'm all over Yana on this one.

EconoReem could take the fight well past the first round though

 

[BigNick100]

Font clearly has a path and it wouldn't surprise me if he does win.

But Simon presents things that have been a problem for Font in the past, which is pressure and making Font have to fight on the back foot. Plus the the td's threat is there and Simon is relentless with them and will fight for your money. The td threat could very well make Font hesitate on when to throw as well.

Pressure is a problem for Font because he has a very boxing heavy style and needs to plant his feet to throw effectively. But when pushed on his back foot his striking suffers because of it. He could have improved that area, or even improved his tdd and stuff td's and box Simon up because he clearly has the better hands.

But I wouldn't want to bet on Font when we really haven't seen him have success against that style, which is why I think the value is on Simon as a dog.

Plus Simon has wanted Font for a while now, called him out after the Yanya fight, so he clearly is confident going up against Font.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Font backers aren't extremely turned off by Simon's fight with Jackson? Best parallel to the type of frame Font has and the style imo. Best parallel to Simon for Font would have been...Munoz?

 

[Sono07]

I've been trying to avoid the ME hell I may still. Watching some of the media it looks like the Reem has been training with Curtis Blaydes.
Not sure how not sure how Jair's grappling is but anyone think Overeem trys a wrestle have offense?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I've been trying to avoid the ME hell I may still. Watching some of the media it looks like the Reem has been training with Curtis Blaydes.
Not sure how not sure how Jair's grappling is but anyone think Overeem trys a wrestle have offense?

He would be wise to do so. Rozen got taken down and scrambled on pretty easily by Junior Albini dude. JUNIOR ALBINI.

 

[BigNick100]

Font backers aren't extremely turned off by Simon's fight with Jackson? Best parallel to the type of frame Font has and the style imo. Best parallel to Simon for Font would have been...Munoz?

Ya, I made that point to someone that tried dismiss that fight has any similarity to this fight, and that Simon was super relentless in that fight in particular, attempted 20 td's and was just pushing forward the whole time.

Short notice for Jackson or not that was still a impressive win for Simon, and I think Jackson has a really bright future ahead of him.

 

[SolarSeiko]

I've been trying to avoid the ME hell I may still. Watching some of the media it looks like the Reem has been training with Curtis Blaydes.
Not sure how not sure how Jair's grappling is but anyone think Overeem trys a wrestle have offense?

Didn't True Acension say Jairzinho by TKO or something a few pages back, I can't argue against that guy. He shut me the fuck up about Israel vs Robert.