UFC 254 - Khabib vs. Gaethje - Official thread

BigSteve said:
I feel like you might be missing some recent tape based on this analysis. Justin changed his style up long before Ferguson, he has perfected it by now. He dosen't do the shell guard anymore either. He pretty much has his hands down, bounces on his toes and pot shots from a distance. He is in and out and has great footwork which means Khabib will have to time him on the take down, or the leg kick. When you step into his boxing range he has much improved head movement and and hooks coming up from weird angles with power. He also throws going backwards now and with awkward timing. ( Koed Cerrone with it and pieced up Ferguson who was eating every combo for 5 rounds ). Khabib has always been hittable and has that weird defence where his chin is up and he just flinches with his elbows. Todays Geathje has a much better style of beating Khabib than 3 fights ago.

Now grapplng wise its silly to assume Khabib wont get him down. But we have seen Dustin, Connor, Barboza, Al and even Micheal Johnson stuff a couple of his takedowns. Some of them were stuffed easy by Johnson and Barboza because Khabib actually dosen't always have the best entries, he has to rush in wildly just to get a hold on you. Once he has a solid hold his chances increase. Barboza was able to matador his way out early but we all know he sucks with pressure and being stuck up against cage.

Geathje has been wrestling since 4, so he says. We have seen him fight a different gameplan in the 5 round fight against Ferguson, being much more technical landing almost everything on a very hittable Ferguson. He wants to be a champ now so he has adapted. That was also his first ever short notice fight, and he looked fine over the whole 5 rounds. Yes he says he never uses wrestling because it makes him tiered, but i am gona make lil assumption here and say he has had a full camp of wrestling for this match. He is not trying to cram a lifetime of wrestling in camps like most of Khabibs opponents, he is just polishing something he was always good at. All this being said I think theres a bit of value on Geathje for me, he is in his prime, hits like a truck, has a great scrambling and anty wrestling style. Enough for a cheeky unit for me
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Being an elite grappler is a totally different thing than having a good American wrestling background. Khabib and Demian Maia are great examples of people that crushed in MMA and didn't have an American style wrestling background. It is just a different skill set and the way Khabib chain grapples is on a different level (obviously). I really don't put too much value on an American wrestling background until I see that athlete execute it in the cage. There are so many American dudes with supposed high level wrestling chops where it doesn't seem to translate well in MMA.
 
jfrito said:
You clearly have been being spoon fed the bs that b schaub spews on a daily basis. Justing has good wrestling tdd, power, technique, wrestling himself, subs himself, and khabib doesnt have ko power. Khabib tires mid 3rd, Jusin catches him, tkos him, and new.
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I make it a point to avoid any content by Brendan Schaub. That dude just makes me cringe. I actually do agree with your synopsis though. Justin's best chance to win is KO/TKO of a tired Khabib in the 3rd or 4th round. I would say his chances of winning are around 5-1 or 6-1. I will celebrate if Justin pulls off the upset as we get to see them fight again in what would be an epic rematch.
 
HockeyBjj said:
Cutelaba a +250 dog? This is a rematch from February with that really weird finish where Cutelaba blocked like 8/10 blows and the ref got scared just becuase Ankalaev was spamming telegraphed head kicks Cutelaba took to the forearms.

What were the odds going into that Feb matchup?
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Before that match began the two had to be separated. Both corners came into the cage and were all fired up pre fight.

cutelaba was hurt but was defending strikes trying to recover and the fight was stopped

the odds increased because cutelaba did nothing and looked very much outclassed standing.
 
I see way too many '''smart'' people being on Gaethje here, reminds me of the many times people were on Ferguson to beat Khabib, while that fight never materialized I think we all know what would have happened there, and I think deep in everybody's mind we know what will happen on saturday. If the line was even money wouldn't everyone hammer Khabib?
 
As much i respect Gaethje i see to many being on Gaethje.
This fight be a difficult one for Gaethje. Knowing what kind of fighting style Khabib wants to use in his fights.
I am not saying your wrong to back Gaethje but it will be a difficult one.
 
Broe. said:
I see way too many '''smart'' people being on Gaethje here, reminds me of the many times people were on Ferguson to beat Khabib, while that fight never materialized I think we all know what would have happened there, and I think deep in everybody's mind we know what will happen on saturday. If the line was even money wouldn't everyone hammer Khabib?
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but it’s not
 
Broe. said:
I see way too many '''smart'' people being on Gaethje here, reminds me of the many times people were on Ferguson to beat Khabib, while that fight never materialized I think we all know what would have happened there, and I think deep in everybody's mind we know what will happen on saturday. If the line was even money wouldn't everyone hammer Khabib?
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I would still bet Gaethie, his wrestling background, ko power and better stand up will make it difficult for Khabib.
 
Broe. said:
I see way too many '''smart'' people being on Gaethje here, reminds me of the many times people were on Ferguson to beat Khabib, while that fight never materialized I think we all know what would have happened there, and I think deep in everybody's mind we know what will happen on saturday. If the line was even money wouldn't everyone hammer Khabib?
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its all about value so thats a silly question.

I personally always thought Khabib would flatten Ferguson, and I bet Geathje against Fergie too. Styles make fights.
Nobody is going to submit Khabib, you have to KO him, in my opinion.
 
Broe. said:
I see way too many '''smart'' people being on Gaethje here, reminds me of the many times people were on Ferguson to beat Khabib, while that fight never materialized I think we all know what would have happened there, and I think deep in everybody's mind we know what will happen on saturday. If the line was even money wouldn't everyone hammer Khabib?
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Profitable betting, in most cases, requires finding discrepancies between implied probability and actual probability. If the line was even money, it would imply that Khabib has a 50% of winning. The current line implies that he has a 77% chance of winning, which is a massive difference. Khabib's actual probability of winning can be debated, but an "if the line was even money" argument isn't really relevant.
 
t6p said:
Profitable betting, in most cases, requires finding discrepancies between implied probability and actual probability. If the line was even money, it would imply that Khabib has a 50% of winning. The current line implies that he has a 77% chance of winning, which is a massive difference. Khabib's actual probability of winning can be debated, but an "if the line was even money" argument isn't really relevant.
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Of course I get that. But lots of people are convinced Gaethje has the upper hand here. Which is just ridiculous imo.
 
Broe. said:
Of course I get that. But lots of people are convinced Gaethje has the upper hand here. Which is just ridiculous imo.
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They are playing the numbers. Right now Justin is around +275. Depending on how you cap the fight some people will play that line. If Justin keeps increasing as a dog eventually everyone would bet him once the price is right based on how one sees the fight playing out. Justin does have a path to victory since he hits like a truck...
 
Broe. said:
Of course I get that. But lots of people are convinced Gaethje has the upper hand here. Which is just ridiculous imo.
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Fair enough. Out of curiosity, where do you cap Khabib?
 
Bet365 has Cutelaba r1 @ +750. Looking at his record he almost exclusively finishes in r1 when he wins. You could take his r1 prop and almost use it as a ML play.
 
Anyone know exactly how long Tai has been at training AKA? I imagine Javier Mendez makes him put the hours in if he is a new teammate....February of 2020 is first reference I can find
 
LEMONZEST said:
Bet365 has Cutelaba r1 @ +750. Looking at his record he almost exclusively finishes in r1 when he wins. You could take his r1 prop and almost use it as a ML play.
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Will this fight even still happen? i remember this fight has being booked at least three times now.
 
Broe. said:
I see way too many '''smart'' people being on Gaethje here, reminds me of the many times people were on Ferguson to beat Khabib, while that fight never materialized I think we all know what would have happened there, and I think deep in everybody's mind we know what will happen on saturday. If the line was even money wouldn't everyone hammer Khabib?
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As one of the "smart" people betting on Gaethje, I would say you are making a lot of presumptions on what would have happened in a fight that didn't materialize and are pretty silly to hypothesize an even money scenario on Gaethje/Khabib.
 
Main_Card_MMA said:
Honestly, Park and Robertson were the easiest, safest money I've made in a while.
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We must have wildly different ideas on what "easy money" is, and this is coming from someone who called the Robertson-Botelho fight exactly.

Still, a -220 favorite who decisively loses round 1 and has her only path to victory repeatedly thwarted that stanza is definitely not "easy money", and again, this is coming from someone who thought it was very likely Botelho would win round 1 but lose the fight.
 
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