UFC 254 - Khabib vs. Gaethje - Official thread

[PuertoRican]

Alvarez missed weight at 159.
Oliveira missed weight at 173.

 

[PuertoRican]

I won't be there for this event, but I might be at some future ones. Do you know a lot about the Vegas books? I bet at Westgate and sometimes The D, but do others have as many line options as Westgate? Circa/The D kinda sucks for line options and has limited me on parlays. I've never live bet in Vegas and don't know if they even offer it for fights.

I usually stay at The D, and I'll be there this weekend.

Westgate has the most options, but I have money in 6 books (Westgate, Circa, Caesars, MGM, Wynn, William Hill), which allows me to shop around. If you want to do real live betting during the middle of a round, then you want to use William Hill. If you want to parlay props, you use MGM. If you want to parlay totals, then most books offer that option. Caesars currently has the worst options out of the 6 books I use.

Circa is good if you want to bet the smaller MMA events, like Dana White's Contender Series, LFA, etc. The other books usually only carry UFC.

 

[BigSteve]

Alvarez missed weight at 159.
Oliveira missed weight at 173.

of course, 2 guys im betting against lol

 

[SBJJ]

Not impressed much with the dude Brazilian Cowboy is facing. Not impressed at all.

I mean its Oliveira so who knows. But he seems to have progressed to a point that he should handle this guy imo

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

I usually stay at The D, and I'll be there this weekend.

Westgate has the most options, but I have money in 6 books (Westgate, Circa, Caesars, MGM, Wynn, William Hill), which allows me to shop around. If you want to do real live betting during the middle of a round, then you want to use William Hill. If you want to parlay props, you use MGM. If you want to parlay totals, then most books offer that option. Caesars currently has the worst options out of the 6 books I use.

Circa is good if you want to bet the smaller MMA events, like Dana White's Contender Series, LFA, etc. The other books usually only carry UFC.

Thanks. I don't follow the others close enough so forget Circa. I love The D; the girls are hot. Do MGM, William HIll and Wynn have options for method of finish/rounds on the undercard? I usually play ML or over/unders, but I hedge or make small plays with props.



Joey Odessa likes Kenney. Gives me some confidence even if the line is high, but he overvalues wrestlers.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Not impressed much with the dude Brazilian Cowboy is facing. Not impressed at all.

I mean its Oliveira so who knows. But he seems to have progressed to a point that he should handle this guy imo

Interesting.

I respect your opinion, you're an OG on these boards.

I think I remember you posting a 15k slip on WB vs Woodley in their first fight.

Anyways, I see an opponent in Shavkat that matches up with Oliveira extremely well. Good stand up, good ground game, and better cardio.

He hits hard, can match Oliveira wherever the fight goes, and has more of a chance to finish this fight in rounds 2/3 if it makes it there.

And everytime that I think Oliveira has progressed, it seems like he takes a step backwards in his next fight.

He looked good against Sobotka, so I fully expect him to lose his next two.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Khabib looked very weak on weigh in, confidence increased in Justin

 

[BigSteve]

Dan Hardy just mentioned Shakirova made the Olympics, I assume for wrestling. She then got into a fight with the girl she beat in qualifying, and got banned for 2 years. I only wish she wasen't so undersized.

 

[SBJJ]

Interesting.

I respect your opinion, you're an OG on these boards.

I think I remember you posting a 15k slip on WB vs Woodley in their first fight.

Anyways, I see an opponent in Shavkat that matches up with Oliveira extremely well. Good stand up, good ground game, and better cardio.

He hits hard, can match Oliveira wherever the fight goes, and has more of a chance to finish this fight in rounds 2/3 if it makes it there.

And everytime that I think Oliveira has progressed, it seems like he takes a step backwards in his next fight.

He looked good against Sobotka, so I fully expect him to lose his next two.

Shavkat looked pretty slow from what I saw and found himself in serious trouble against lower competition.

I agree that Cowboy could blow his wad and choke. But ill be ready to hedge live if I end up on him pre fight. I also like the fact he missed weight. Usually a bad sign but not for him imo.

Gone are the days of 10 or 20k bets. A large bet for me now is a grand, maybe 2. I just do not follow the sport the way I used to. And do not have the time or energy to hunt down lines or casino hop. But there are very few things that give you a feeling like have tens of thousands on a fight. A new car or oatmeal and Ramen for the next month

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Alvarez missed weight at 159.
Oliveira missed weight at 173.

Oliveira Missing weight is not the first time that this happened dang. I might take a shot at some of the underdog.

 

[Mortex2]

I am going to be the only degenerate betting Justin G.
300$ to win
200$ to win by KO/TKO.
will post later. but this will be my main play. The odds are just too good to pass.

 

[xhaydenx]

Probably doing 2k on Murphy and Mavrick to both win in a parlay. Might throw Kenney in there as well, but not sure yet.

 

[Card]

Alex Oliveira (173*) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (171)
Joel Alvarez (159.5**) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (155.5)

* Oliveira missed weight and will forfeit 20 percent of his fight purse to Rakhmonov

** Alvarez missed weight and will forfeit 30 percent of his fight purse to Yakovlev

 

[carolinagrapple]

Anyone betting the main needs to watch khabibs weigh in...I thought he was about to pull the DC towel trick. He also held the commissioner's hands to steady himself.

Also Alvarez was visibly shaking while flexing.

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020...-justin-gaethje-weigh-in-results-video-stream

 

[HockeyBjj]

I still have early money at -250 on Khabib, but anyone trying to find a reason to hit that button at ~+260 on Gathje, Khabib looked genuinely shocked that he made weight and looked like he did take himself as low as he could go without risking (another) hospital visit trying to make weight. Khabib looked like he expected the guy to announce his weight at 155.4 and then it was Allah himself who shifted it to 155 on the money

 

[mkess101]

I see way too many '''smart'' people being on Gaethje here, reminds me of the many times people were on Ferguson to beat Khabib, while that fight never materialized I think we all know what would have happened there, and I think deep in everybody's mind we know what will happen on saturday. If the line was even money wouldn't everyone hammer Khabib?

Ferguson (3 years ago, not now) was a totally different matchup than Justin is. Because Tony offers something off his back, and had showed absolutely elite cardio. There was far more logic in thinking that version of Ferguson would beat Khabib imo.

Justin hasn't shown that elite level cardio that Tony had 3 years ago. Justin's TDD is fine, but it's not special. He was taken down in some WSOF fights (getups were good though). It is very difficult not seeing this fight go similarly to Khabib/Dustin. Just as with the Dustin fight, there may be a moment where Justin has his chance to land something big. Dustin stung Khabib in one exchange, though didn't hurt him badly obviously. But Dustin even told his corner that he couldn't keep Khabib off him. I'm not sure why people think this will be any different. Nor do I understand the thinking in that Khabib will be the one who tires first. His cardio looked good in the extreme heat vs Dustin, while Dustin wilted from being forced into all those grappling exchanges.

And quite frankly, assuming Khabib gets Justin down (pretty good assumption), I'm not sure Justin has the skills off his back to survive even as long as Dustin did.

I wouldn't count out Gaethje, he's clearly put it all together. But I think capping Khabib -300 to -350 makes sense. And I think 3rd rd finish seems about right.

 

[HockeyBjj]

^agree. I don’t see what Gaethje brings to the table Porier didn’t. They’re both very similar fighters. Excellent boxing, damage dealers, good enough TDD to keep their fights standing against most people.

But Khabib obviously isn’t most people. And it’s not like Gathje has never been taken down before. Would a 10% better version of Porier have made that matchup look much different?

 

[mkess101]

^agree. I don’t see what Gaethje brings to the table Porier didn’t. They’re both very similar fighters. Excellent boxing, damage dealers, good enough TDD to keep their fights standing against most people.

But Khabib obviously isn’t most people. And it’s not like Gathje has never been taken down before. Would a 10% better version of Porier have made that matchup look much different?

Yep, spot on. And honestly, as great as Gaethje has looked lately (and he's looked great, Whitman has made some amazing adjustments) do we even think he's better than Poirier? Who would make a huge bet on Justin at even odds vs Dustin right now? Not me, no way. Not that I don't think Justin could win, but I have no clue if his revamped version is better than Dustin or not.

 

[TrueAscension]

Yes Justin is better than Poirier imo... not that it has anything to do with this fight whatsoever.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Khabib has always had rough weight cuts. Abulmanap (Rest in peace old man) has said cutting the weight is harder than being in the Octagon. I can timestamp a video of him saying that if you want. When Khabib won the title from Ragin' Al, he started his camp (intending to fight Tony Ferguson) at 187 pounds then fast forward to 11 days before the fight hes walking around 174. His lived shut down or whatever before UFC 209. I'm super not surprised at the very least he looked underwhelming but looking rough has never stopped Khabib from looking fresh while imposing his will.

You know who would be an awful match up for Khabib? Jose Aldo. Also can do and has done ALLLLL the things you need to hit Khabib without being hit and avoiding extended grappling. You dont have to be on the ground to be losing to Khabib.

Anyway, Jose Aldo can pivot when someone his marching forward on him with strikes. Sometimes then sends you into and open angle and Aldo hits you while your looking at Joe Rogan and he's looking at the side of your head. Gaethje...I don't really see doing very often. Mostly I've seen him go back in a straight lines when defending strikes. He does move side to side at a distance and can escape at angles and I've also seen him get way better foot position on say Tony Ferguson...but....to say he can matador Khabib bum rushing his hips? He would have to show something new to me.

Aldo can limp leg! The good news is so can Gaethje AND so can Ragin' Al. Al defended many many Khabib lauch and your leg TD's in open space with a simple limp leg. I'm confident Gaethje has that ability.

Aldo has a good whizzer! A great one in fact. Watch him use it vs Chad Mendes especially (idk which fight. Watch em both theyre awesome). JG has a whizzer but uses it sparingly choosing to explode his hips to expose his back and wall walk. DP is a good wall walker too and he spent minutes at a time trying to get off the fence. The fence is lava don't touch the fence.

Aldo is a good hand fighter! You're not getting your hands around Jose Aldo for very long no sir. Aldo can tie one of your arms with a whizzer and have wrist control on the other in the clinch and escape super duper easily. I might be wrong but I don't think I've EVER seen Gaethje do this. He needs to able to do that if he needs to and Khabib pretty much gets everyone to the fence.

In short Gaethje is not Aldo...

but will give Khabib and good account of himself and may even threaten Khabib drastically standing up. Gaethje has a meeeeeeean left hook and uppercut and he swings bloody hard (I'm not English.) We learned from Tony that he could swing like that for long long time too.