UFC 254 - Khabib vs. Gaethje - Official thread

On topic of some closer odds, anyone leaning strongly on the Whittaker Cannonier fight at pickem? And also Volkov at -190 seems extremely safe for under 200 and parlay filler left and right

Struve be Tai is pickem odds, but that HW matchup does seem like betting on a literal coin flip with two bad Heavys
 
Yes Justin is better than Poirier imo... not that it has anything to do with this fight whatsoever.

Interesting. Not saying you're wrong, but I'd be really interested to see what the line would look like now. Dustin did have some dicey moments vs Hooker.
 
Interesting. Not saying you're wrong, but I'd be really interested to see what the line would look like now. Dustin did have some dicey moments vs Hooker.

I think Dustin has taken a lot more damage recently. Note the word recently lol.
 
Yep, spot on. And honestly, as great as Gaethje has looked lately (and he's looked great, Whitman has made some amazing adjustments) do we even think he's better than Poirier? Who would make a huge bet on Justin at even odds vs Dustin right now? Not me, no way. Not that I don't think Justin could win, but I have no clue if his revamped version is better than Dustin or not.

I don't know if Gaethje is better than Poirier right now (I do tend to think if the version of Gaethje that fought Ferguson, with his vastly improved discipline and cardio, was to fight Dustin, it's very likely that he would win), and while they are similar fighters at face value, there are differences and I think it's fair to question how well Khabib will deal with those differences.

Justin is a far better wrestler on paper than Dustin, and we have essentially no idea how well that wrestling has transferred to MMA at his level, since we haven't seen it. If this turns into a classic Khabib fight with a ton of grappling exchanges, obviously he should have a huge advantage. But if Justin can counter Khabib's wrestling even slightly better than others have, his chances improve significantly.

Justin also has shown that he will come forward, no matter what. Poirier and others have been unable to keep the fight in the center of the cage. Khabib typically won't even attempt his tds until he has his opponent backed up to the fence. Moments where the fight is in open space, should favor Justin imo.

Lastly, leg kicks. No one has attacked Khabib's legs over an extended period. Mostly, because they've been on their backs but also because of the fear of the td. Gaethje throws his legs kicks at boxing range, which in theory, should make them more difficult to catch.

It's very possible that Khabib deals with all of these things without issue. Justin may not even have the defensive bjj to stop Khabib from subbing him the first time he gets taken down. But, I think there are some unknowns here. Personally, I'm not a fan of big bets in these situations. I'm not sure if you're advocating for a bet on Khabib, but I wouldn't touch him at his current price.
 
Also I'm just using Aldo to put a visual representation in your head on weapons you need to fight Khabib and why they'll work if you do them well. Kinda arm in the air throw-y to watch tape and put mind to keyboard after thinking a bunch to be met with "lol". Nancy boy feels on my part I guess.
 
I don't know if Gaethje is better than Poirier right now (I do tend to think if the version of Gaethje that fought Ferguson, with his vastly improved discipline and cardio, was to fight Dustin, it's very likely that he would win), and while they are similar fighters at face value, there are differences and I think it's fair to question how well Khabib will deal with those differences.

Justin is a far better wrestler on paper than Dustin, and we have essentially no idea how well that wrestling has transferred to MMA at his level, since we haven't seen it. If this turns into a classic Khabib fight with a ton of grappling exchanges, obviously he should have a huge advantage. But if Justin can counter Khabib's wrestling even slightly better than others have, his chances improve significantly.

Justin also has shown that he will come forward, no matter what. Poirier and others have been unable to keep the fight in the center of the cage. Khabib typically won't even attempt his tds until he has his opponent backed up to the fence. Moments where the fight is in open space, should favor Justin imo.

Lastly, leg kicks. No one has attacked Khabib's legs over an extended period. Mostly, because they've been on their backs but also because of the fear of the td. Gaethje throws his legs kicks at boxing range, which in theory, should make them more difficult to catch.

It's very possible that Khabib deals with all of these things without issue. Justin may not even have the defensive bjj to stop Khabib from subbing him the first time he gets taken down. But, I think there are some unknowns here. Personally, I'm not a fan of big bets in these situations. I'm not sure if you're advocating for a bet on Khabib, but I wouldn't touch him at his current price.

No in looking at odds, they seem close to where I'd cap it. So value really isn't there. For those who got Khabib -240 or whatever, I think they got value. Now, probably a pass.
 
Khabib has always had rough weight cuts. Abulmanap (Rest in peace old man) has said cutting the weight is harder than being in the Octagon. I can timestamp a video of him saying that if you want. When Khabib won the title from Ragin' Al, he started his camp (intending to fight Tony Ferguson) at 187 pounds then fast forward to 11 days before the fight hes walking around 174. His lived shut down or whatever before UFC 209. I'm super not surprised at the very least he looked underwhelming but looking rough has never stopped Khabib from looking fresh while imposing his will.

You know who would be an awful match up for Khabib? Jose Aldo. Also can do and has done ALLLLL the things you need to hit Khabib without being hit and avoiding extended grappling. You dont have to be on the ground to be losing to Khabib.

Anyway, Jose Aldo can pivot when someone his marching forward on him with strikes. Sometimes then sends you into and open angle and Aldo hits you while your looking at Joe Rogan and he's looking at the side of your head. Gaethje...I don't really see doing very often. Mostly I've seen him go back in a straight lines when defending strikes. He does move side to side at a distance and can escape at angles and I've also seen him get way better foot position on say Tony Ferguson...but....to say he can matador Khabib bum rushing his hips? He would have to show something new to me.

Aldo can limp leg! The good news is so can Gaethje AND so can Ragin' Al. Al defended many many Khabib lauch and your leg TD's in open space with a simple limp leg. I'm confident Gaethje has that ability.

Aldo has a good whizzer! A great one in fact. Watch him use it vs Chad Mendes especially (idk which fight. Watch em both theyre awesome). JG has a whizzer but uses it sparingly choosing to explode his hips to expose his back and wall walk. DP is a good wall walker too and he spent minutes at a time trying to get off the fence. The fence is lava don't touch the fence.

Aldo is a good hand fighter! You're not getting your hands around Jose Aldo for very long no sir. Aldo can tie one of your arms with a whizzer and have wrist control on the other in the clinch and escape super duper easily. I might be wrong but I don't think I've EVER seen Gaethje do this. He needs to able to do that if he needs to and Khabib pretty much gets everyone to the fence.

In short Gaethje is not Aldo...

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but will give Khabib and good account of himself and may even threaten Khabib drastically standing up. Gaethje has a meeeeeeean left hook and uppercut and he swings bloody hard (I'm not English.) We learned from Tony that he could swing like that for long long time too.
He might not have an exaggerated pivot like Aldo but in the Tony and Cowboy fight he has shown that ability. Also the fact he stays low on his punches is going to help alot.
 
Not impressed much with the dude Brazilian Cowboy is facing. Not impressed at all.

I mean its Oliveira so who knows. But he seems to have progressed to a point that he should handle this guy imo

i don't think we'd be seeing pick 'em odds if shavkat rakhmanov was named john williams. i think the kazakh fighter is going to get stuck at distance and picked apart. i like the way cowboy has been fighting more methodically lately.
 
Ferguson (3 years ago, not now) was a totally different matchup than Justin is. Because Tony offers something off his back, and had showed absolutely elite cardio. There was far more logic in thinking that version of Ferguson would beat Khabib imo.

Justin hasn't shown that elite level cardio that Tony had 3 years ago. Justin's TDD is fine, but it's not special. He was taken down in some WSOF fights (getups were good though). It is very difficult not seeing this fight go similarly to Khabib/Dustin. Just as with the Dustin fight, there may be a moment where Justin has his chance to land something big. Dustin stung Khabib in one exchange, though didn't hurt him badly obviously. But Dustin even told his corner that he couldn't keep Khabib off him. I'm not sure why people think this will be any different. Nor do I understand the thinking in that Khabib will be the one who tires first. His cardio looked good in the extreme heat vs Dustin, while Dustin wilted from being forced into all those grappling exchanges.

And quite frankly, assuming Khabib gets Justin down (pretty good assumption), I'm not sure Justin has the skills off his back to survive even as long as Dustin did.

I wouldn't count out Gaethje, he's clearly put it all together. But I think capping Khabib -300 to -350 makes sense. And I think 3rd rd finish seems about right.

Totally agree. I also think Dustin is more of a natural athlete than Justin. Justin is built like a brick shit house. If Dustin couldn't shrimp and squirm out of bad spots I am even more doubtful that Justin being so heavy set will be able to.
 
On topic of some closer odds, anyone leaning strongly on the Whittaker Cannonier fight at pickem? And also Volkov at -190 seems extremely safe for under 200 and parlay filler left and right

Struve be Tai is pickem odds, but that HW matchup does seem like betting on a literal coin flip with two bad Heavys

Volkov? Jeez no way would I pay juice on him. Harris almost had Overeem out of there. He's shown he can close distance and land big shots on the inside vs taller guys. I mean I'd probably pick Volkov to win straight up but not laying 2-1 on him. Esp with HW where one shot changes everything. Volkov looked like -500 vs Black Beast for all but the last few seconds of that fight and then..boom, goodnight.

Agree on Tai/Struve. I just don't trust Struve's chin or Tai's ability to not get grapplefucked. Coin toss.

Bobby seemed so tentative for a lot of the fight vs Till. He won (rightfully so imo) but that was because as the fight went on, Till also got extremely tentative. I lean Cannonier but just slightly so.
 
On topic of some closer odds, anyone leaning strongly on the Whittaker Cannonier fight at pickem? And also Volkov at -190 seems extremely safe for under 200 and parlay filler left and right

Struve be Tai is pickem odds, but that HW matchup does seem like betting on a literal coin flip with two bad Heavys

Both not fights I would bet but I lean Tai since he is about 1000x more durable than Struve. At HW durability is a major factor.

I feel like this is Cannonier's time. His head is in the right place and he wants to go out there and kill. Whittaker going through his depression and now he is "back". It is a very close fight that I won't bet but if I had to choose I would go with Jared.
 
Of course Khabib had to cheat to make weight. Such BS. Just like his teammate, Daniel Cormier, and him cheating on the scales. And the UFC won't say shit.
 
Pulled the trigger on Whittaker. £100 @ evens.

It's one of them where I'd kick myself for days if I didn't and he wins.

We'll see.
 
I think Khabib just drowns Justin like he's been talking about... Khabib via DEC is the prediction. Still gonna bet Justin tho. Too powerful, fearless, well coached to pass up on him at almost 3/1.
 
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