UFC on ESPN 19 Hermansson vs. Holland

Crimp_Keeper said:
arguing semantics is a waste of time. You were definitely critical of my bet on Holland which is why you said what you said.

I like most of y’all but sometimes, some of you have a hard time admitting when you’re wrong.

In any event I’m not gonna keep shitting up this thread we’ve all made our points let’s get back to the topic at hand.
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fair
 
Hermansson vs Holland cancelled

What a shit show
 
Fuck i was hoping to see vettori smash Souza
 
Jacare facing holland instead, i guess they just did a complete switch around lol.
 
Really bad they switched because I was pretty confident in Hermanson winning against Holland and Vettori winning against Jacare.
 
Jacare will probably be +160 or so, there's value there.

OSP +155 is enticing.

I think it's safe to just fade Villante at this point.
 
Didn't really think much to this card at first glance but after taping a few fights this is going to be a grapplers delight, so many great wrestling and BBJ match ups here.

I think Damon Jackson is a live dog.
 
2020Tracked said:
Didn't really think much to this card at first glance but after taping a few fights this is going to be a grapplers delight, so many great wrestling and BBJ match ups here.

I think Damon Jackson is a live dog.
Click to expand...
hmm topuria really impressed me in his debut, this could be a case of topuria winning rounds 1 and 2 and then gassing in round 3. But I am pretty confident in Topuria.

Santos should smash too tbh. She is for wmma standards a great striker and also physically strong. She should have no problem picking de la rosa apart from range and also stuffing her takedown attempts.
 
Broe. said:
hmm topuria really impressed me in his debut, this could be a case of topuria winning rounds 1 and 2 and then gassing in round 3. But I am pretty confident in Topuria.

Santos should smash too tbh. She is for wmma standards a great striker and also physically strong. She should have no problem picking de la rosa apart from range and also stuffing her takedown attempts.
Click to expand...

Topuria really impressed me as well, great performance, but Jackson also impressed me.

Came in short notice against a high level grappler and athletically much more gifted fighter and beat him at his own game, showed some real grit and toughness and will to win.

I give Jackson the clear experience edge, the size advantage, the more seasoned and matured fighter.

I also didn't like how often, Zalal got his arms round Tapuria's neck, he even locked in a guillotine in the third but was too tired to do anything with it. I think if you put yourself in that position with Jackson once to often and he will pop your head off your shoulders.

I don't think that Tapuria can't win, he certainly can, but I don't feel the line is correct. It was only 3/4 fights ago Tap was fighting 0-0 opponents, Jackson's already been to the top level in LFA and has double the fights.
 
oof at first glance this is a much harder card for betting than yesterdays for me.

initial thoughts:
  • villante is more of a meme than a fighter but collier has no business being in the UFC at heavyweight at this stage in his career. Villante at -210 honestly doesn't seem too bad. That said, villante can and has lost fights he should have won.
  • i'm super high on jimmy flick. I'll even go as far as to say hes in top 5 in terms of MMA bjj. On the other hand, Durden definitely has a path to victory by picking him apart on the feet and stuffing takedowns but I think flick will tire him out and get a sub in R3. If flick is around -140 i'll start hammering him
  • OSP at +140 could be a value bet by utilizing his wrestling. It could be a vintage von flue choke for him OR he could shit the bed as he's known to do
  • Damon Jackson could be a value bet. Topuria is good, but he's a little too untested to be -220 against a decent guy like jackson. I'll need to tape this further
  • Dolidze/Allen seems like a pick 'em fight to me. Both guys are fairly similar to one another. Decent hands, decent wrestling, both PED users. If anything i'd prop bet this as going over 1.5 rounds. If I had to guess, i'd say Dolidze gets him down and chokes him out
 
imagine betting on osp that fight will end in 1 round by suband... you win :D this literally hapended to my friend once
 
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