UFC on ESPN 19 Hermansson vs. Holland

[DabanggData]

Nice detailed analysis as always everyone, thanks

UFC Vegas 16, Saturday, December 5, 2020
parlay

Taila Santos -200
Ilia Topuria -225

Gian Villante -210 "The half-pound Gian burger consists of fresh ground turkey mixed with bell peppers, onion and yogurt. It comes with lettuce, tomato, pesto mayo and cheese, just a few jalapeno peppers to "add a kick," as the menu says"
Jordan Leavitt -400, 4 inch reach advantage
Movsar Evloev -550

Parlay +372

 

[Broe.]

I don't really see a path to victory for Hermansson. Is he gonna take Vettori down and submit him? I mean Vettori is so strong and has such good tdd I highly doubt Hermansson will be able to take him down. Other than that what is Hermansson gonna do? outstrike him at range? How well has Hermansson done that vs decent strikers (Cannonier, Ferreira, Thiago Santos). I guess he could heal hook Vettori in some way but that is such a low percentage move. I think it is really crazy so many people wanna bet on Hermansson. Vettori is improving every fight and his gastank has improved significantly over time. I feel he is a tough matchup for any fighter in the MW division.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I don't really see a path to victory for Hermansson. Is he gonna take Vettori down and submit him? I mean Vettori is so strong and has such good tdd I highly doubt Hermansson will be able to take him down. Other than that what is Hermansson gonna do? outstrike him at range? How well has Hermansson done that vs decent strikers (Cannonier, Ferreira, Thiago Santos). I guess he could heal hook Vettori in some way but that is such a low percentage move. I think it is really crazy so many people wanna bet on Hermansson. Vettori is improving every fight and his gastank has improved significantly over time. I feel he is a tough matchup for any fighter in the MW division.

Vettori has no ko power, cardio is on Hermansons side too. If the fight was 3 rounds I would bet Vettori but in 5 round fight Hermanson is the right side.

 

[rille31]

I don't really see a path to victory for Hermansson. Is he gonna take Vettori down and submit him? I mean Vettori is so strong and has such good tdd I highly doubt Hermansson will be able to take him down. Other than that what is Hermansson gonna do? outstrike him at range? How well has Hermansson done that vs decent strikers (Cannonier, Ferreira, Thiago Santos). I guess he could heal hook Vettori in some way but that is such a low percentage move. I think it is really crazy so many people wanna bet on Hermansson. Vettori is improving every fight and his gastank has improved significantly over time. I feel he is a tough matchup for any fighter in the MW division.

Take him down and pound him.

 

[2020Tracked]

Vettori had shown good over all take down defence but he was taken down 3 times by shoeface and they where all bodylocks and trips, the exact same way Herm likes to get his takedowns.

No saying it means he will get them, Vettori is definitely improved in all areas

 

[Broe.]

Vettori had shown good over all take down defence but he was taken down 3 times by shoeface and they where all bodylocks and trips, the exact same way Herm likes to get his takedowns.

No saying it means he will get them, Vettori is definitely improved in all areas

That is true but that was 4 years ago. Vs cezar ferreira who I think is a better wrestler than Shoeface he stuffed all takedown attempts.

 

[Richard Cruz]

Didn't really think much to this card at first glance but after taping a few fights this is going to be a grapplers delight, so many great wrestling and BBJ match ups here.

I think Damon Jackson is a live dog.

it’s a possibility Jackson big brothers him or get clipped with a right hand. I’m hoping this plays out in the clinch and on the ground. Waiting for the odds to improve on Jackson.

 

[rev0lver]

I know most of you are probably not looking at Landwehr-Evloev that seriously, but I think it's worth noting that Landwehr has spent most of the past 3 years beating a streak of high-level Russian dudes in m-1

 

[loller90278]

I know most of you are probably not looking at Landwehr-Evloev that seriously, but I think it's worth noting that Landwehr has spent most of the past 3 years beating a streak of high-level Russian dudes in m-1

i think his odds of winning are better than what the bookies have. Don't think he'll win but he's a dog with no quit in him. It might be more competitive than the bookies think.

 

[DonQ94]

I don't really see a path to victory for Hermansson. Is he gonna take Vettori down and submit him? I mean Vettori is so strong and has such good tdd I highly doubt Hermansson will be able to take him down. Other than that what is Hermansson gonna do? outstrike him at range? How well has Hermansson done that vs decent strikers (Cannonier, Ferreira, Thiago Santos). I guess he could heal hook Vettori in some way but that is such a low percentage move. I think it is really crazy so many people wanna bet on Hermansson. Vettori is improving every fight and his gastank has improved significantly over time. I feel he is a tough matchup for any fighter in the MW division.

I think Hermansson has the better striking, primarily his jab. He is quicker and more mobile than Vettori. Grappling wise it's very close, but yeah. I'll gladly take Jack at dog odds after that assessment.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I know most of you are probably not looking at Landwehr-Evloev that seriously, but I think it's worth noting that Landwehr has spent most of the past 3 years beating a streak of high-level Russian dudes in m-1

did you watch those fights where he was “winning”?

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I think Hermansson has the better striking, primarily his jab. He is quicker and more mobile than Vettori. Grappling wise it's very close, but yeah. I'll gladly take Jack at dog odds after that assessment.

Hermanson striking better than vettoris ? I would highly disagree

 

[rev0lver]

did you watch those fights where he was “winning”?

Yeah, some of them were rough with comeback ko's. But they're testaments to his toughness and scrappyness. You can't tell me a 5 fight winstreak against experienced, high-level Russians is all chance. And Evloev either gets rocked or put in compromising situations in virtually all his fights. Give Nate a chance when he's outmatched and he loves to take it.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Yeah, some of them were rough with comeback ko's. But they're testaments to his toughness and scrappyness. You can't tell me a 5 fight winstreak against experienced, high-level Russians is all chance. And Evloev either gets rocked or put in compromising situations in virtually all his fights. Give Nate a chance when he's outmatched and he loves to take it.

i thought he lost both of those decisions clearly.

I think evloev is far superior in almost every aspect of mma.

I was never really impressed with landwehr. If I remember right I thought he lost to Darren elkins, and he basically got the nod because of Elkins scare tissue

 

[DonQ94]

Hermanson striking better than vettoris ? I would highly disagree

Maybe better is an overstatement. But I think Vettori is not much of a threat, a bit slow with no power and little variety. I feel like Hermansson can wear him out from the outside with jabs and leg kicks.

 

[Broe.]

I think Hermansson has the better striking, primarily his jab. He is quicker and more mobile than Vettori. Grappling wise it's very close, but yeah. I'll gladly take Jack at dog odds after that assessment.

I totally disagree. I know mma math doesnt mean much but look at how Ferreira was kicking Hermansson's ass in the striking and then compare that to Vettori totally owning Ferreira in the striking department. Hermansson beat up a lot of old and slow fighters and his stand up has definitely improved but his striking is still not good.

 

[Langinbang187]

I think Hermansson has the better striking, primarily his jab. He is quicker and more mobile than Vettori. Grappling wise it's very close, but yeah. I'll gladly take Jack at dog odds after that assessment.

Vettori certainly isn't fast, but he's faster than Hermansson, and he's a much, much better striker.

 

[2020Tracked]

I totally disagree. I know mma math doesnt mean much but look at how Ferreira was kicking Hermansson's ass in the striking and then compare that to Vettori totally owning Ferreira in the striking department. Hermansson beat up a lot of old and slow fighters and his stand up has definitely improved but his striking is still not good.

Vettori got washed up Ferreira though, who hasn't fought since. Vettori lost to Ahkmedov who just lost to washed up five fight losing streak Weidman.

You can't really MMA math it. Herm got Ferreira as his second fight in the UFC, Vettori also lost his second fight in the UFC to a dangerous Brazilian BJJ guy. These things happen

 

[sonhow]

Vettori lost to Ahkmedov

I missed the fight but official books have it as a draw.

 

[BigSteve]

after tape its crazy how similar Hill and OSP are. Hill is like a more technical version of OSP. Same high, 1inch difference in reach, both southpaws, both have chins up and hands down, both hit hard. Hill has way better output way better cardio. Obviously I am ignoring the ground game. I see no way OSP wins a decision here, clipping and subbing Hill is his only way to victory