UFC 260: Stipe vs Ngannou 2

[Sono07]

Anybody else think Twood quit against Colby? Either that or he had money on Covington r5, seems like the guy wanted out of there to me.

Post title reign Woodley always seems like the same story to me.
"I'm not about to let some young guy make a name off me, I'm letting my hands go this time"
he says addressing the young prospect about to make a name off him before letting nothing go but time off the round clock.

Maybe we see a renewed effort here but I don't think Tyron even has the will to fight these days. I imagine he is here to cash one or two more show money checks and go the way of JDS, from top tier to stepping stone followed by the unemployment line.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see a whole lot of skill in azaitar. The only thing he does, is run forward in a straight line throwing overhands with his head held low. Barriault has a decent high guard, good chin and likes throwing uppercuts. I could see him catch Azaitar with one of those or outcardio him.
I think the line is pretty accurate, don't see much value on the ML. Just a low level sloppy brawl kinda fight.

Most of his(Barriault) losses were close fights against legit opp. Azaitar last fight was in 2018 and he gasses out by the 3rd with few strikes. 2016 he has a lack luster fight against a 10-10 opponent, also agree with Barriault's guard and he also has a decent 1-2 straight, I see him winning by the middle of the 2nd round and finishing him in the 3rd when Azaitar begins to gas out.

 

[Kazda1]

I think there’s a large skill gap between azaitar and power bar. I’m willing to risk 2 units on it despite the red flags. Probably double the bet size if azaitar was coming fresh off the Miranda win and the layoff never happened

penne and goldy isnt as big of a gap and it’s wmma. Penne is 38 years old and also a Usada victim. She lost her last fight to a somewhat similar fighter in Danielle Taylor

pass. Need better odds to take a chance

If you think Danielle Taylor is similar to Goldy, you're crazy. This is gonna be like the Alexis Davis fight a few weeks ago.

@Sono07 this is why I like wmma betting so much. There's often these mistakes that look like skill similarities people aren't willing to dig into. I get the argument he's making, but it's not a valid one in my opinion.


@Captain Chesapeake saying you need better odds to take a chance on Penne under these circumstances when Barriault could be poised to run away with a fight you're willing to take a chance on in which a guy clearly blows his load too early is hilarious. At least Penne is more than even money right now without you having to pay the slightest of juice.

Not a bad comparison with Dom. Seemed like Stipe used alot of footwork and head movement in the first fight. My biggest read here is Francis knows what to expect from Stipe now and Miocic won't be able to keep his distance or at least have as much room to work as he needs. DC coming on strong with strikes later against Stipe was a very bad look in my opinion. DC is skilled but he is undersized at HW at least as a striker and doesn't have near the level of physicality of that Ngannou does

Tough sell on Lewis. Blaydes might be his best win and Francis stopped him twice. Not to meantion JDS KOed Lewis and Francis smashed JDS. Not really relevant here but I think Gane is about to be in, or on his way to the number 1 contender slot very soon.

Francis is afraid of Lewis. Blame Stipe for it. There will always be that "What if?" in the back of Francis' mind. Either he's not going to get up from being taken down or just picked apart. Accuracy is going to kill Francis this fight. He's not going to have the chance to club some dude turning his back from him this time.

Anybody else think Twood quit against Colby? Either that or he had money on Covington r5, seems like the guy wanted out of there to me.

Post title reign Woodley always seems like the same story to me.
"I'm not about to let some young guy make a name off me, I'm letting my hands go this time"
he says addressing the young prospect about to make a name off him before letting nothing go but time off the round clock.

Maybe we see a renewed effort here but I don't think Tyron even has the will to fight these days. I imagine he is here to cash one or two more show money checks and go the way of JDS, from top tier to stepping stone followed by the unemployment line.

Woodley's been quitting ever since Usman.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

If you think Danielle Taylor is similar to Goldy, you're crazy. This is gonna be like the Alexis Davis fight a few weeks ago.

@Sono07 this is why I like wmma betting so much. There's often these mistakes that look like skill similarities people aren't willing to dig into. I get the argument he's making, but it's not a valid one in my opinion.


@Captain Chesapeake saying you need better odds to take a chance on Penne under these circumstances when Barriault could be poised to run away with a fight you're willing to take a chance on in which a guy clearly blows his load too early is hilarious. At least Penne is more than even money right now without you having to pay the slightest of juice.



Francis is afraid of Lewis. Blame Stipe for it. There will always be that "What if?" in the back of Francis' mind. Either he's not going to get up from being taken down or just picked apart. Accuracy is going to kill Francis this fight. He's not going to have the chance to club some dude turning his back from him this time.







Woodley's been quitting ever since Usman.

I typically skip over your posts so w/e. I’m not bothering to debate with someone who’s posts I don’t read

Ive put about zero minutes of tape in penne vs goldy

not interested

 

[Kazda1]

I typically skip over your posts so w/e. I’m not bothering to debate with someone who’s posts I don’t read

Ive put about zero minutes of tape in penne vs goldy

not interested

No worries. It's all discussion. I generally read every comment in here from anyone as long as you make sense and you're not arguing the logic behind hail mary parlays. No shots fired at anyone, just saying. But hey, it's wmma. Some of us enjoy it, others not so much.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

No worries. It's all discussion. I generally read every comment in here from anyone as long as you make sense and you're not arguing the logic behind hail mary parlays. No shots fired at anyone, just saying. But hey, it's wmma. Some of us enjoy it, others not so much.

Weren’t you talking about betting penne big? I would highly discourage you from doing that. 1-2 units at most unless you have inside information

 

[TrueAscension]

Luque is going to kick Woodleys legs off his body and end his career
Ngannou might need to find a safe house or a relative to stay with because he might be wanted for murder..

 

[Kazda1]

Weren’t you talking about betting penne big? I would highly discourage you from doing that. 1-2 units at most unless you have inside information

Big in the word I'm confident she wins. Not sure dollar amount what I'm going to do yet

 

[Sono07]

@Sono07 this is why I like wmma betting so much. There's often these mistakes that look like skill similarities people aren't willing to dig into. I get the argument he's making, but it's not a valid one in my opinion

I can definitely see the value in wmma. The way I tape fights I do find it harder to breakdown at times personally. Seems like you get more inconsistencies and usually the skills are lower level. Cheyanne Buys knowing her opponents one offensive tool and being completely helpless against it Saturday is a decent example, especially since it was a very predictable and preventable gameplan.

Also it is alot easier for me to focus on tape if I enjoy the fights I'm watching. Example being Luque this weekend. I'm pretty set on my side of that fight but I may finish watching all his UFC fights through anyway party because I genuinely enjoy them so much. Luques corner calling for head movement before he used a beautiful slip and counter to turn Niko Price into one eyed Willy is so satisfying. That and analyzing his technical improvements and overall progression is much more engaging than listening to two low level ladies slap box and bark out kiai's while fighting for a head and arm throw. Stuff like that hurts my soul a little, especially when I tape a fighter, decide she has the winning skill set and then watch her get thrown ass over tits like she like she forgot judo was a thing.

Not to sound like the typical "wmma bad" Sherbro but some of the low level stuff is a choir to a watch even live. When wmma is good it's great and when it's bad its usually terrible. Like Zhang vs JJ I've seen that fight at least 3 times and I'll glad watch it at least once or twice more to prepare for Weili's fight and because it is an amazing scrap. Trouble for me is sorting through the chaff to find the value in alot of low level wmma.

As far as Penne vs Goldy I don't know them well at all(like the rest of the wmma roster). I will say at a glimpse just from my system/criteria Penne being close 40 is worrisome. Couple that with the fact she probably hasn't cut to 115 in nearly 4 years and her timing could be off from inactivity. For me that is alot to think about before I even get to a technical breakdown. That massive reach advantage is nice though and DWCS call ups are often fade material. I may try to break that fight down before Saturday but there are alot of question marks already. Harder for me to find an edge with the unknowns especially considering those divisions are not not my forte or at least are harder for me to engage with than others.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Luque is going to kick Woodleys legs off his body and end his career
Ngannou might need to find a safe house or a relative to stay with because he might be wanted for murder..

I have to agree with you on that one about Luque finishing Woodley.
I would say this fight problary will finish ITD in round one or two is nice. But i think the Assassin could end this fight early.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

Jared Gooden looked pretty decent in his debut fight against Jouban despite losing. Is this Nurmagomehov that good or are the oddsmakers just respecting his name? I remember him getting tapped quick in his UFC debut, looks like most of his wins in the PFL were against journeyman type guys, there might be value on Gooden at +180

 

[Kazda1]

Jared Gooden looked pretty decent in his debut fight against Jouban despite losing. Is this Nurmagomehov that good or are the oddsmakers just respecting his name? I remember him getting tapped quick in his UFC debut, looks like most of his wins in the PFL were against journeyman type guys, there might be value on Gooden at +180

Does anyone know if this Nurmagomedov related to Khabib?

 

[MixMartialFarts]

Does anyone know if this Nurmagomedov related to Khabib?

I think I remember them saying it was his cousin before his debut.

 

[rev0lver]

Seeing a lot of "Francis worked on his wrestling" but where have we actually seen it? How many times have we seen "x fighter's been training this aspect nonstop" just for them to fail at it in the end? Yeah there's no question Francis has stupid ko power but no one should be surprised if we see the same result again. I don't see why I shouldn't take a dog who 50-44'd the same guy 3 years ago.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

I'm a little rusty on Woodley's older fights and I may skip them since he is basically a different fighter now. Has he ever utilized a heavy kicking game before? He seems like a heavy handed wrestle boxer/power puncher to me. Honestly I think it would be a horrible idea for Woodley to kick here against the tai stylist.

Woodley is probably very heavy on his lead leg to generate his power. That and Luque is a solid kicker himself and could probably check Tyron easily with his tai stance. Luque is like a bigger maybe more technical Munhoz. Constant forward movement and pressure, great chin, and loves/excels at attrition fighting. Honestly I'm pretty high on Luque here. I think Twood stays glued to the cage and gets his leg chewed to shreds here. I don't think he can weaponize his wrestling his wrestling for any meaning amount of time either. I think Luque could either just win a points fight from mid with combos or shut down Twoods boxing even more like Munhoz did to Rivera recently.

Now that I think about it outside of a big right hand Edgar "beating" Munhoz is probably the closest comparison for what Woodley would need to do here. Stay active from range /Nope, mix in his takedowns /doubtful, and make Luque miss while chasing him around. Twoods is only going two directions here left or right on the cage, I see no way Woodley wins the moment by moment exchanges to score points her. Ko or bust to me and I'd say he is bust already.

Condit/WB

Wasn't exactly a "heavy" gameplan but he implemented them.

Realistically if Luque KO is +150 or better, I'm playing it.

And goddamnit, TheWeasle just made a video being a stan for Francis. Confidence decrease.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Seeing a lot of "Francis worked on his wrestling" but where have we actually seen it? How many times have we seen "x fighter's been training this aspect nonstop" just for them to fail at it in the end? Yeah there's no question Francis has stupid ko power but no one should be surprised if we see the same result again. I don't see why I shouldn't take a dog who 50-44'd the same guy 3 years ago.

He's 3 years older now, pushing 40, with a much worse chin than back then, much worse cardio (him and DC gassed horribly the last 2 rounds and it was mainly wall n stall) and reflexes

 

[rev0lver]

He's 3 years older now, pushing 40, with a much worse chin than back then, much worse cardio (him and DC gassed horribly the last 2 rounds and it was mainly wall n stall) and reflexes

You trust Francis's cardio vs wrestling in the late rounds though?

 

[ExitLUPin]

You trust Francis's cardio vs wrestling in the late rounds though?

Definitely not but I don't see it going to the late rounds. Stipes head movement, reflexes and specially chin aren't the same level as when they first fought and I gotta think Francis at least would do better against the reactive doubles this time

 

[Sono07]

@Kazda1 Just getting the lay of the land on Penne or at least how she has spent some her time away but I don't like it so far. Does her recent battle with USADA worry you at all? Apparently she spent her retirement savings and started a gofundme page just to fight the charges and this was just a month or two ago.
Her history of panic attacks is slightly concerning as well.

●Penne, who in 2015 fought Joanna Jędrzejczyk for the UFC strawweight title, said she no longer experiences the panic attacks that sidelined her career. After much “self-work” and consultations with mental health professionals and an endocrinologist, she’s confident she could “put my best foot forward.”

I'm trying to use my rose-colored glasses here but the flags still look red. USADA issues, questionable mentality, financial trouble. Couple all that with the fact she started an Onlyfans for what I can only assume is a way of solving her financial issues can only mean one thing. I ahh need to do some more... extensive research?...... be right back fellows...

 

[Kazda1]

@Kazda1 Just getting the lay of the land on Penne or at least how she has spent some her time away but I don't like it so far. Does her recent battle with USADA worry you at all? Apparently she spent her retirement savings and started a gofundme page just to fight the charges.
Her history of panic attacks is slightly concerning as well.

●Penne, who in 2015 fought Joanna Jędrzejczyk for the UFC strawweight title, said she no longer experiences the panic attacks that sidelined her career. After much “self-work” and consultations with mental health professionals and an endocrinologist, she’s confident she could “put my best foot forward.”

I'm trying to use my rose-colored glasses here but the flags still look red. USADA issues, questionable mentality, financial trouble. Couple all that with the fact she started an Onlyfans for what I can only assume is a way of solving her financial issues can only mean one thing. I ahh need to do some more... extensive research?...... be right back fellows...

I agree. It's all concerning. I looked into it all. I'm willing to go down in flames on this one. Even if it makes no sense, sometimes certain plays just come down to them being situational I guess. This happens to be one for me.