UFC 260: Stipe vs Ngannou 2

[svmr_db]

And goddamnit, TheWeasle just made a video being a stan for Francis. Confidence decrease.

I thought Weasle made some good points, anything you specifically disagreed with?

 

[Deleted member 316645]

I thought Weasle made some good points, anything you specifically disagreed with?

Oh I agreed with almost everything.

But historically I disagree with so many of this dude's picks in main events and I turn out to be right that it worries me.

 

[Sono07]

Seeing a lot of "Francis worked on his wrestling" but where have we actually seen it? How many times have we seen "x fighter's been training this aspect nonstop" just for them to fail at it in the end? Yeah there's no question Francis has stupid ko power but no one should be surprised if we see the same result again. I don't see why I shouldn't take a dog who 50-44'd the same guy 3 years ago.

It didn't work for Cory Anderson against Jan the second time did it? Similarities between both Jan and Franicis, both are the heavier hitters, both men know what to expect coming in after the first fight, and both Anderson and Stipe have suffered KO losses since the first fight. Both Jan and Ngannou have nearly twice the experience from the first time as well at least in terms years in pro mma (probably more like 35-40% but semantic's I guess)

Why not bet the dog when he won the first time? Stipe opened at nearly a +200 underdog back in September of 2020 and all the money has been coming in on him. At that price I might have taken a stab myself. Now the fight is almost even money, you can get dog odds on either side. I doubt Franicis is looking to show off his submission skills or leave the hard work to the judges here.

Stipe may have won 50-44 but Ngannou came close to ending the fight on several occasions. People shit on Ngannou for the Lewis fight but Francis and Stipe lost there next outting. Also how many fighters do you know that wrestle more between 35-40 than they did when they were younger? The muscle memory is there but the stamina, recover, and speed fade like anything else when you age.

Stipe and Woodley both, the wrestling skill is there but it is more of a double edged sword now than it was. Decreased athleticism and slower reactions make wrestling a risk for both men. Sure they could manage to secure position but they could also over extend themselves and not be able to recover in time without securing anything.

Ask any fighter in the ufc who would be the one person they wouldn't want to get hit by. I'm pretty confident the consensus falls on a small hand full of people with Ngannou being at the top. Kind of impressive all things considered.

In a firefight I'm definitely not standing on the other side or at least not betting against the biggest canon in the game. Even if I do think the gastank is limited I'm not putting my units in the line of fire. Stipe needs a perfect fight and I doubt he can repeat the first fight.
One good shot> one perfect fight

 

[Sono07]

I agree. It's all concerning. I looked into it all. I'm willing to go down in flames on this one. Even if it makes no sense, sometimes certain plays just come down to them being situational I guess. This happens to be one for me.

Brave man, I respect that. I may just parlay the over and contribute to Penne's new ah... social media endeavors post fight if it hits.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Jared Gooden looked pretty decent in his debut fight against Jouban despite losing. Is this Nurmagomehov that good or are the oddsmakers just respecting his name? I remember him getting tapped quick in his UFC debut, looks like most of his wins in the PFL were against journeyman type guys, there might be value on Gooden at +180

I was for Gooden , but then I saw this fight.



The way he was taken down and held against the cage against a lesser grappler from a 2018 fight, Imagine now a bronze medal sambo champion.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Danny Davis Jr WSOF 26 Part 1 Full Fight M... (mma-core.com)

Numagomedov has no problem taking down big guys, here his opponent is 6'3 and he had him pinned against the cage the same way. Also he is going to have a quiet arena with his cousin Khabib shouting out tips , the advantage that Gooden has is his power and his weight, he says he walks around 190lb and cuts to 170lb, come fight night he will be a middle weight , but this might backfire as he will suffer cardio issues as well with those big muscles being pumped with blood.

I can see Gooden catching him and having an advantage in being more active, but those aka guys practice so much wrestling. Gooden should have switched to a better camp.

I think Nurmogomedov wins a boring wall and stall ,high ground ctrl decision.

 

[BigSteve]

Seeing a lot of "Francis worked on his wrestling" but where have we actually seen it? How many times have we seen "x fighter's been training this aspect nonstop" just for them to fail at it in the end? Yeah there's no question Francis has stupid ko power but no one should be surprised if we see the same result again. I don't see why I shouldn't take a dog who 50-44'd the same guy 3 years ago.

Francis already had a decent sort of defensive wrestling game when he was way greener. In his debut he fought Henrique who spams takedowns and is a world champ in Jits. He got taken down but he stuffed a few and got up off the ground. Same against Blaydes in his second fight, he is super quick at getting the underhooks. In their rematch, Blaydes didn't even get close to getting a takedown. That first Stipe fight was an outlier, if Francis comes in patient like usual and waits for the takedown, Stipe will have a lot of trouble taking him down. I mean he struggled to get Francis down with an attempt in the third round when Francis was completely gassed and was stuffing his head down. He knows the right technique to stop takedowns, he knew it all the way back in his debut. Even against Cain, as he was moving back, he got an under hook first, and then landed the short uppercut that put cain out. There is no doubt he has been working on it, even though we havent seen it.

 

[rev0lver]

It didn't work for Cory Anderson against Jan the second time did it? Similarities between both Jan and Franicis, both are the heavier hitters, both men know what to expect coming in after the first fight, and both Anderson and Stipe have suffered KO losses since the first fight. Both Jan and Ngannou have nearly twice the experience from the first time as well at least in terms years in pro mma (probably more like 35-40% but semantic's I guess)

Why not bet the dog when he won the first time? Stipe opened at nearly a +200 underdog back in September of 2020 and all the money has been coming in on him. At that price I might have taken a stab myself. Now the fight is almost even money, you can get dog odds on either side. I doubt Franicis is looking to show off his submission skills or leave the hard work to the judges here.

Stipe may have won 50-44 but Ngannou came close to ending the fight on several occasions. People shit on Ngannou for the Lewis fight but Francis and Stipe lost there next outting. Also how many fighters do you know that wrestle more between 35-40 than they did when they were younger? The muscle memory is there but the stamina, recover, and speed fade like anything else when you age.

Stipe and Woodley both, the wrestling skill is there but it is more of a double edged sword now than it was. Decreased athleticism and slower reactions make wrestling a risk for both men. Sure they could manage to secure position but they could also over extend themselves and not be able to recover in time without securing anything.

Ask any fighter in the ufc who would be the one person they wouldn't want to get hit by. I'm pretty confident the consensus falls on a small hand full of people with Ngannou being at the top. Kind of impressive all things considered.

In a firefight I'm definitely not standing on the other side or at least not betting against the biggest canon in the game. Even if I do think the gastank is limited I'm not putting my units in the line of fire. Stipe needs a perfect fight and I doubt he can repeat the first fight.
One good shot> one perfect fight

You're saying this like Stipe sucks now though lol. He recently avenged a loss with a KO and sealed it with a 5-round victory. Yeah he's 38 but he hasn't had anyone really expose him as he's aged. Definitely wouldn't compare him to Woodley either. Just stylistically really different.

I'm not trying to downplay Ngannou's power. But Stipe hurt him standing that fight too. The only one to really do that in a while. Stipe can KO him, wrestle him, sub him, or just grind him out for a decision. He doesn't need that perfect of a fight, he pretty much just has to avoid early big shots that get labored pretty quickly. I'm not going to be shocked if Ngannou knocks him out. I just can't use "power" as a justification against a guy who also has power, is used to power, is a better overall fighter, and already won this fight before.

 

[rev0lver]

Francis already had a decent sort of defensive wrestling game when he was way greener. In his debut he fought Henrique who spams takedowns and is a world champ in Jits. He got taken down but he stuffed a few and got up off the ground. Same against Blaydes in his second fight, he is super quick at getting the underhooks. In their rematch, Blaydes didn't even get close to getting a takedown. That first Stipe fight was an outlier, if Francis comes in patient like usual and waits for the takedown, Stipe will have a lot of trouble taking him down. I mean he struggled to get Francis down with an attempt in the third round when Francis was completely gassed and was stuffing his head down. He knows the right technique to stop takedowns, he knew it all the way back in his debut. Even against Cain, as he was moving back, he got an under hook first, and then landed the short uppercut that put cain out. There is no doubt he has been working on it, even though we havent seen it.

Stipe uses the wrestling threat a lot more than we saw them use though. He'll time them rather than force the action, and that's where he usually found success in the first fight. It keeps Ngannou less confident on the feet and lets Stipe work in shots. Much more effective imo

 

[TrueAscension]

Ngannou has been waiting for a very long time to avenge this loss. Has trilogy written all over it.

 

[StewDogg11]

Ngannou has been waiting for a very long time to avenge this loss. Has trilogy written all over it.

Francis’ only way to win is with a devastating early KO. With the way Stipe has been talking he’s gonna retire if he gets brutally knocked out.

 

[Sono07]

You're saying this like Stipe sucks now though lol. He recently avenged a loss with a KO and sealed it with a 5-round victory. Yeah he's 38 but he hasn't had anyone really expose him as he's aged. Definitely wouldn't compare him to Woodley either. Just stylistically really different.

I'm not trying to downplay Ngannou's power. But Stipe hurt him standing that fight too. The only one to really do that in a while. Stipe can KO him, wrestle him, sub him, or just grind him out for a decision. He doesn't need that perfect of a fight, he pretty much just has to avoid early big shots that get labored pretty quickly. I'm not going to be shocked if Ngannou knocks him out. I just can't use "power" as a justification against a guy who also has power, is used to power, is a better overall fighter, and already won this fight before.

Nah Stipe is a beast but gun to my head I can tell you who I wouldn't sign up to fight lmao. He is a world away from Woodley as well that comparison was strictly about grappling becoming more taxing older fighters get.

I don't think Stipe sucks at all but I don't think he is any faster than he was in the first fight. Ngannou already admits part of his issue was rushing a finish the first time. He may fight the same way still but if he measures himself Stipe could slow further himself.

Two huge factors for me. The small octagon probably forces more exchanges and I really think it favors the challenger here. Weasels breakdown pointed out something too. Francis has had Usman in his corner(literally) every since the JDS fight. I thought it was a novelty late addition to his corner at first but I guess not.

Francis has been grinding his axe since the first fight and Usman providing grappling training/advice is a huge factor I believe. Two things I think Stipe needs to do that he will have alot more trouble with than the first time. Keeping his range and scoring TD's, I really think this being in the Apex small cage is a terrible turn of fortune for the champ.

 

[Sono07]

Francis’ only way to win is with a devastating early KO. With the way Stipe has been talking he’s gonna retire if he gets brutally knocked out.

Maybe this is reaching but I wouldn't be shocked to see him counter a TD attempt with a Kimura grip like he has before. Stipe is probably too good to get caught with it but Francis could probably rip the leg off a horse if he felt like it.

A little green but solid grappling knowledge from Francis here. Establishes his grip, breaks Hamilton's lock, turns into face Hamilton and extendeds the arm. I'm surprised he finished here rather than simply get back to space honestly. Knee on belly(decent enough control) and a wrecked rotator cuff for the win.



(I'm off to cap other fights since I can't seem to get my head out of the main an comain event)

 

[StewDogg11]

Maybe this is reaching but I wouldn't be shocked to see him counter a TD attempt with a Kimura grip like he has before. Stipe is probably too good to get caught with it but Francis could probably rip the leg off a horse if he felt like it.



(I'm off to cap other fights since I can't seem to get my head out of the main an comain event)

Haha yeah from a technical standpoint I think Stipe is better everywhere but a straight f you limb removal would be funny.

 

[Sono07]

Almost done with the main and comain I guess. Just wanted to throw this out for people. I'm sure most already know but for those who dont I think this connection is the Xfactor that seals Tyron's fate. Gilbert is the ideal training partner for the surging prospect here. If Woodley did have any ace up his sleeve Burns has probably pulled his shirt off his back and has shown Twood's whole hand here.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Gotta take a decent shot here on Gillian sub +400

I actually kind of want to play maverick at -160. I favor her to win but I can’t help but think this fight is going to play out on the ground. Against jojua, maverick showed no interested in playing on the ground with a jiu jitsu girl. She may not have a choice against Gillian, who wants to get the fight to the ground at all costs.

Against santos, who is clearly a better striker, the fight played out almost entirely on the ground where santos was able to dominate. Santos used those long legs to anchor herself and create good leverage and top pressure to avoid subs and sweeps. There were some armbar attempts, but nothing really got close because santos intelligently and calmly defended all attempts.

Maverick doesn’t have the same heavy top control as santos. She is a competent jiu jitsu player but against Gonzalez she was vulnerable to getting reversed when she took her back

pearl was able to take her down off a caught kick. She took her down again off a trip from clinch and nearly won rd 2. Maverick controlled most of the fight on the ground but she does give up space to land ground and pound leaving room to be caught with an armbar or triangle.

we haven’t really seen how maverick deals with a jiu jitsu specialist on the ground. She may be too strong and be able to muscle out of armbars or maintain top control. The fight may not even hit the ground for all I know

Miranda could end up dominating the fight here and I’ll regret not playing her. It’s just how my luck has been going lately. She’s legit and -160 against a girl who has refused to improve her striking seems like a pretty good line

 

[longway]

Gotta take a decent shot here on Gillian sub +400

I actually kind of want to play maverick at -160. I favor her to win but I can’t help but think this fight is going to play out on the ground. Against jojua, maverick showed no interested in playing on the ground with a jiu jitsu girl. She may not have a choice against Gillian, who wants to get the fight to the ground at all costs.

Against santos, who is clearly a better striker, the fight played out almost entirely on the ground where santos was able to dominate. Santos used those long legs to anchor herself and create good leverage and top pressure to avoid subs and sweeps. There were some armbar attempts, but nothing really got close because santos intelligently and calmly defended all attempts.

Maverick doesn’t have the same heavy top control as santos. She is a competent jiu jitsu player but against Gonzalez she was vulnerable to getting reversed when she took her back

pearl was able to take her down off a caught kick. She took her down again off a trip from clinch and nearly won rd 2. Maverick controlled most of the fight on the ground but she does give up space to land ground and pound leaving room to be caught with an armbar or triangle.

we haven’t really seen how maverick deals with a jiu jitsu specialist on the ground. She may be too strong and be able to muscle out of armbars or maintain top control. The fight may not even hit the ground for all I know

Miranda could end up dominating the fight here and I’ll regret not playing her. It’s just how my luck has been going lately. She’s legit and -160 against a girl who has refused to improve her striking seems like a pretty good line

Why not the ITD for +340? She does have a TKO via GnP on her record. Miranda is pretty basic in the grappling department.

 

[TrueAscension]

Francis’ only way to win is with a devastating early KO. With the way Stipe has been talking he’s gonna retire if he gets brutally knocked out.

Enter Jon Jones then.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Ouch lolz.
Marlon Vera reacts to Sean O’Malley’s claim about “undefeated record”

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Why I am I wanting to take Francis ML instead of KO.

ML -125, KO +105.

I feel like Francis rd1/2 is the play, but who the fuck knows. Maybe he fights a much more reserved fight, and beats the fuck out of Stipe over 5 rounds but doesn't finish him.

 

[BigSteve]

I was for Gooden , but then I saw this fight.



The way he was taken down and held against the cage against a lesser grappler from a 2018 fight, Imagine now a bronze medal sambo champion.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Danny Davis Jr WSOF 26 Part 1 Full Fight M... (mma-core.com)

Numagomedov has no problem taking down big guys, here his opponent is 6'3 and he had him pinned against the cage the same way. Also he is going to have a quiet arena with his cousin Khabib shouting out tips , the advantage that Gooden has is his power and his weight, he says he walks around 190lb and cuts to 170lb, come fight night he will be a middle weight , but this might backfire as he will suffer cardio issues as well with those big muscles being pumped with blood.

I can see Gooden catching him and having an advantage in being more active, but those aka guys practice so much wrestling. Gooden should have switched to a better camp.

I think Nurmogomedov wins a boring wall and stall ,high ground ctrl decision.

I will sprinkle a little on Gooden. He at least fights for your money, gets up and attacks subs. And Abubalar is absolute trash and seems to have 1 round cardio.