UFC 260: Stipe vs Ngannou 2

[Stat_Collector]

I will sprinkle a little on Gooden. He at least fights for your money, gets up and attacks subs. And Abubalar is absolute trash and seems to have 1 round cardio.

I tried my best to find a good reason but his tdd and getups are not there. This is how he does against wrestling heavy style. The style is identical to Abu's style and is more than likely how the fight will go.

 

[Martialbeef]

Why I am I wanting to take Francis ML instead of KO.

ML -125, KO +105.

I feel like Francis rd1/2 is the play, but who the fuck knows. Maybe he fights a much more reserved fight, and beats the fuck out of Stipe over 5 rounds but doesn't finish him.

I know. Francis isn’t going to win a decision against Stipe...

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Why not the ITD for +340? She does have a TKO via GnP on her record. Miranda is pretty basic in the grappling department.

She’s only had one stoppage from strikes and that was to the gassed frota

Maybe I should’ve played it vs the sub line. not a huge difference. I’ll take my chances.

 

[BigSteve]

I tried my best to find a good reason but his tdd and getups are not there. This is how he does against wrestling heavy style. The style is identical to Abu's style and is more than likely how the fight will go.

I don't usually go that far back with tape. This fight in particular is 13 fights and 4 years ago. 7 Fights later he fights Graves who is much better fighter with great grapping. He has wins in UFC over Brown and Luque, and Gooden did much better over the 5 rounds even though he still lost.

Have you taped any of Abubakar out of curiosity??

 

[BigSteve]

Morales v Young back on the menu

 

[Sono07]

Mma math but Im pretty sure both Devonte Smith and Luis Pena would absolutely dominate Mullarkey.

I want to like Worthy but I'm still not sold on the guy. Maybe it's his style maybe it is near complete lack of footwork and questionable wrestling. Fortunately Mullarkey isn't much better with his footwork. Both men use alot linear movement and like to reset with the same kinda L step pattern.

On the feet I think Jamie is a little out gunned here. Khama's hands are pretty fast and he has decent power too. I don't like the way he follows opponents around but I doubt Mullarkey can punish him for it here.

Khama's stance and style should score him points here even if he doesn't get a KO. He has kinda a tai boxer style, up right stance, mainly uses boxing combos and follows up alot of them with low kicks. The stance worries me a bit though. Can he stop Mullarkey's shots and stay off his back here? I think Worthy is value but I'll probably play his NSC line incase he gets grapple fucked to a 30-27 decision.

 

[spinup]

Francis has had Usman in his corner(literally) every since the JDS fight. I thought it was a novelty late addition to his corner at first but I guess not.

Francis has been grinding his axe since the first fight and Usman providing grappling training/advice is a huge factor I believe.

Usman is not that big of a deal, he only joined near the end of 2 fight camps (jds and Stipe).
But Ngannou has taken his wrestling training, conditioning and nutrition to a much more professionnal level since losing to Stipe. He has a good stable team around him between Xtreme couture and the UFC PI, solid sparring partners (Ivanov, Latifi, Tony Johnson, Tim Johnson, Mohamed Usman, even Carlos Takam for boxing) and he has been putting the work while apparently enjoying himself.
So it can be expected he will be much improved, technically, physically, and mentally.

 

[jrleclerc88]

I know. Francis isn’t going to win a decision against Stipe...

And francis vs lewis will NOT go to a decision. Weird things happen

 

[Sono07]

Man revisiting tape I forgot just how dog shit Mullarkey is. Dude is straight poppycock at best. Great price on Khama here I'd say, unless Jamie can play wet blanket here the "Death Star" is going to blow his head off his shoulders probably r1/r2.

Khama has some big defensive holes but nothing I think Jamie can capitalize on here. Mullarkey looks poised for a return to the regionals, I actually think less of Brad Riddell after rewatching that one. Jaime's footwork and movement isn't any better than Khama's and might actually be worse. Same for his striking, the guy knows punches, problem is he telegraphs everything so badly his opponent probably knows what he is throwing before he does.

I was worried about TD's but Jamie's top control is bad. I wouldn't be surprised Khama lands a bomb or grabs a guillotine early here. I'm lukewarm on Khama as a fighter but the guy has decent hands. Worthy's hand speed and power is going to look amazing here against someone who walks forward and eats alot of shot like Jamie.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Man revisiting tape I forgot just how dog shit Mullarkey is. Dude is straight poppycock at best. Great price on Khama here I'd say, unless Jamie can play wet blanket here the "Death Star" is going to blow his head off his shoulders probably r1/r2.

Khama has some big defensive holes but nothing I think Jamie can capitalize on here. Mullarkey looks poised for a return to the regionals, I actually think less of Brad Riddell after rewatching that one. Jaime's footwork and movement isn't any better than Khama's and might actually be worse. Same for his striking, the guy knows punches, problem is he telegraphs everything so badly his opponent probably knows what he is throwing before he does.

I was worried a TD's but Jamie's top control is bad. I wouldn't be surprised Khama lands a bomb or grabs a guillotine early here. I'm lukewarm on Khama as a fighter but the guy has decent hands. Worthy's hand speed and power is going to look amazing here against someone who walks forward and eats alot of shot like Jamie.

Yea I have a few units on worthy at -135. Mullarkey is tough, that’s about it

 

[ballsackarino]

Think I'm just going to play Menifield at evens. Yeah, he looked like a deer in the headlights against OSP but stylistically he matches up well with William Knight. Good TDD, I think he's better on the feet and has more power. He was defending takedowns well against Devin Clark even in the third round and I think Clark is levels above William Knight in terms of wrestling. Knight is also a DWCS tomato can.

 

[Sono07]

Knight is also a DWCS tomato can.

Maybe but Menifield came up bopping cans on contender series too.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't usually go that far back with tape. This fight in particular is 13 fights and 4 years ago. 7 Fights later he fights Graves who is much better fighter with great grapping. He has wins in UFC over Brown and Luque, and Gooden did much better over the 5 rounds even though he still lost.

Have you taped any of Abubakar out of curiosity??

I've been trying to find that fight if you have that link post it. When I get home iI'l post the link to Abu's fights. It's mostly on mma core.

 

[Kazda1]

Maybe but Menifield came up bopping cans on contender series too.

And with that, the Menifield/Knight fight is off my betting plate for the weekend. Thank you good sir.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Stipe bet down to +100 most places. I should have jumped more earlier when he was sti;; +110

Think this trend continues and we finish -110 to -110? Or will late money on the KO guy come in (which is what I thought) and push Stipe back to +120?

I am absolutely piss poor at predicting which way a line will move

 

[Kazda1]

Stipe bet down to +100 most places. I should have jumped more earlier when he was sti;; +110

Think this trend continues and we finish -110 to -110? Or will late money on the KO guy come in (which is what I thought) and push Stipe back to +120?

I am absolutely piss poor at predicting which way a line will move

I think the casuals might get involved and push it back. But then again I'm in Vegas and I'm hoping that's the way it'll move.......

 

[HockeyBjj]

I think the casuals might get involved and push it back. But then again I'm in Vegas and I'm hoping that's the way it'll move.......

I was way wrong on the Porier/McGregor line. I jumped all over the +185 DP opening thinking that fight should be 50/50 personally, and then again at +215 and ended up just wishing I'd held all my money until day of at +255

Then I tried adopting a theory of the line opens for the hardcores and big money, and then shifts towards the casuals. But that's backfired here. Unless too many (like myself) have been waiting for that casual shift only to accept we missed the boat already so put money in now while it's still a little plus (like I did with $75 at +110. Another hundred or 150 I'd like to throw but not sure to do it now or wait)

I've done well in the fact that I've definitely been profitable with my bets. But this here I do not at all have a grasp of.

 

[Kazda1]

I was way wrong on the Porier/McGregor line. I jumped all over the +185 DP opening thinking that fight should be 50/50 personally, and then again at +215 and ended up just wishing I'd held all my money until day of at +255

Then I tried adopting a theory of the line opens for the hardcores and big money, and then shifts towards the casuals. But that's backfired here. Unless too many (like myself) have been waiting for that casual shift only to accept we missed the boat already so put money in now while it's still a little plus (like I did with $75 at +110. Another hundred or 150 I'd like to throw but not sure to do it now or wait)

I've done well in the fact that I've definitely been profitable with my bets. But this here I do not at all have a grasp of.

I think people might be leery of Ngannou this time. It's not like how it was before. Add in that I think Stipe's last performance being the more recent of all might still be fresher in people's minds (the recency bias thing). I think if you had a more recent KO by Ngannou since last August Stipe could easily end up being +150 now. I still say Stipe gets back to +110, but then again I'm like you and hoping at this point.

I've had trouble setting up a William Hill/BetMGM account in the last week or so and haven't figured out what's going on with it, so I've been unable to bet the fight personally.

 

[HockeyBjj]

I think people might be leery of Ngannou this time. It's not like how it was before. Add in that I think Stipe's last performance being the more recent of all might still be fresher in people's minds (the recency bias thing). I think if you had a more recent KO by Ngannou since last August Stipe could easily end up being +150 now. I still say Stipe gets back to +110, but then again I'm like you and hoping at this point.

I've had trouble setting up a William Hill/BetMGM account in the last week or so and haven't figured out what's going on with it, so I've been unable to bet the fight personally.

What state are you? Oh, you said in Vegas. So has to be a Nevada one

Out of the ones I've used, WIlliam Hill was by far my least favorite mobile betting source. I just did my sign up promo stuff and then cashed out. Draft Kings and PointsBet have been great. Fanduel ok. William Hill was like some highschooler designed it for a tech class homework assignment.

 

[Kazda1]

What state are you? Oh, you said in Vegas. So has to be a Nevada one

Out of the ones I've used, WIlliam Hill was by far my least favorite mobile betting source. I just did my sign up promo stuff and then cashed out. Draft Kings and PointsBet have been great. Fanduel ok. William Hill was like some highschooler designed it for a tech class homework assignment.

BetMGM doesn't offer any promos here in NV and DK and FD can't be used here. I usually spend more time in MGM casinos so it makes more sense to go that way.