UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai

longway said:
It's worth it. It's a bore to log picks, but you can't kid yourself, or anyone else, with your bets being on record. You don't have to use that site, there are others.
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o well im not a tout anyway so not really fussed what people think lol. But who knows maybe one day
 
2020Tracked said:
Anyone think Arroyo is playable just on principle? I think Breese is the much better fighter with much more potential but he's shown again and again that he's just not committed and will 'quit' in fights. I feel like he is striking adverse now so he stays in grappling exchanges longer than he should and ends up in bad positions.

I think Arroyo is one of the worst fighters in the UFC, but if he blasts Breese with a few hard kicks or some how ends up on top in a grappling exchange I wouldn't be surprised to see Breese just fold up and want out again.
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I was thinking of including Breese in a parlay but everything you said sums up why it scares me perfectly lmao. Arroyo has demonstrated in his fights that he does have powerful strikes and decent striking. His two UFC losses were to grapplers, Muniz and Winn, who are better wrestlers/grapplers than Breese. Winn took Arroyo down at will and that's why he won. The takedowns/superior grappling were what edged Muniz the win in that fight as well.

Breese is a solid boxer with power, and that's how he's won pretty much all of his UFC fights. It's hard to picture Breese using a grapple heavy approach in this fight, even though, based on Arroyo's past fights, it's clearly his easiest path to victory. Breese is pretty well-rounded though, the problem is he hasn't really shown off his grappling too much in the UFC (according to stats, he has never landed a single takedown in the UFC before...)

Arroyo seems to have poor cardio, but did he gas because Winn made it a wrestling match for the vast majority of the fight and took him down over 10 times? Will he gas if it plays out on the feet for the majority of it?

It looks like a mismatch on paper, but there are a lot of reasons why it could end up surprising people. As for actually betting on Arroyo... idk. It's hard to put faith in such a fighter, despite everything I said. I may have just talked myself out of including Breese in a parlay though lol... But Breese has lost to ranked fighters and Arroyo is nowhere near that level. I know it was a long time ago now, but a lot of people thought he should have gotten the nod against Strickland, who's currently ranked at #11 and has always been good. His last fight was a loss to #13, Omari Akhemedov. He honestly didn't look too bad but I didn't really like the way he gave up that arm triangle so easily, Akhemedov hasn't been able to finish fights in the UFC and Breese kinda gifted him that submission. The way he shelled up against Brendan Allen wasn't a good look either, and Allen isn't ranked rn, but he's an on-the-cusp top 15 guy and could be ranked in the future.

He's looked good in his wins against guys who are clearly way less skilled than him. His grappling (offensive and defensive) against Akhemedov and Allen probably would have worked against lesser fighters, and Arroyo is a lesser fighter... also, on the flip side to what I said earlier about Arroyo's UFC opponents being grapplers, has Arroyo been tested against a respectable UFC-level guy who's actually willing to strike with him? What will his chin be like if Breese lands a good shot? Breese is the most technical boxer. Idk.

Can you tell I'm bad at betting on fights? I could be super confident in something but I'll waver back and forth to the point where I just feel stupid.
 
I think there will be a few upsets on this card. Here are my selections, before any fight cancellations:

Jordan Leavitt
Youssef Zalal
Montana De La Rosa
Manon Fiorot
Mason Jones
Muslim Salikhov
Tanner Boser
Makwan Amirkhani
Antonio Arroyo
Dusko Todorovic
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Roman Dolidze
Marcin Tybura
Augusto Sakai
 
This Ponz vs Baeza fight reminds me of Jimmy Crute vs Anthony Smith.
 
Anybody have thoughts on the Jordan Leavitt fight? Can Jordan get he sub? What would be a good price?
 
Not seeing much discussion about the main event.
-120 for Rozenstruik seems like a good price to me.
I know he didn't look exceptional against Gane but Sakai seems like a big step down in compeptition.
Is there a reason I shouldn't go heavy on him here?
 
bendoman said:
Not seeing much discussion about the main event.
-120 for Rozenstruik seems like a good price to me.
I know he didn't look exceptional against Gane but Sakai seems like a big step down in compeptition.
Is there a reason I shouldn't go heavy on him here?
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Sakai seems to have a decent chin and output for a HW. On the contrary Rozenstruik is very low volume. So unless you banking on that KO I wouldn't touch him personally.
 
bendoman said:
Not seeing much discussion about the main event.
-120 for Rozenstruik seems like a good price to me.
I know he didn't look exceptional against Gane but Sakai seems like a big step down in compeptition.
Is there a reason I shouldn't go heavy on him here?
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Sakai can shoot on him and take him down for a ground-and-pound session, or a submission. Not necessarily at will, but he has a good chance.
 
love the 1.5rd over on Jair / Sakai

also like Sakai dec +420

would consider Jair KO hedge but +120 is flaccid

better Jair hedge would be to live bet him when he’s down a few low output rounds and is just headhunting

edit: Sakai has never gotten a submission win in his career but I do not hate Sakai by sub +2600

edit 2: sakai by sub already down to +1100 lol
 
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I am going to throw in some little sparkle on Lipski ITD when the props come out.
 
won my nba bets last night (had to bet on something this weekend since no UFC) so I treated myself to a fight pass subscription

watched every episode of Fightlore and still can’t sleep so now i’m taping Moroz vs Fiorot

wow I did not remember Moroz vs Bueno Silva being a scrap, Moroz definitely deserved her decision victory but she was getting rocked in that third round

Fiorot should being able to pick her apart just like Angela Hill did Moroz, the only thing is since the Hill fight Moroz has made it a point to clinch more and get the fight to the ground, I watched Fiorot’s pre UFC fights on youtube but competition was well below UFC level so i’m not sure what significance they’ll end up having

this is also falling into a bit of a trend for Moroz, her last 2 fights she was the underdog against prospects believed to be better strikers than her and in both fights she used her experience against and didn’t just settle for a kickboxing match like she did in the Hill fight

I haven’t decided on if i’m pre betting yet but I don’t think i’m comfortable paying -180 for Fiorot in only her second UFC fight. I also recognize she should have a clear striking advantage if she can keep it standing though..think i’ll be looking to bet Moroz live if she lands an early takedown and/or if Fiorot blows her load hunting for a fifth straight finish, which would flop against someone with great cardio like Moroz

ok it’s 6am now gn
 
Devilboy86 said:
There something wrong with my question? I was trying to get discussion going on a fight I dont have a read on. You dont want to discuss fights then leave loser
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If you want an opinion, give an opinion, tape it yourself and research it properly then comeback. If you don't have a read on it then asking a bunch of questions on the fight is going to be worthless, you're just looking for someone else to do the work.

Half this forum are guys like that, the uproar when Sadistics stopped posting his bets was hilarious lol
 
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