UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai

[Bakayoko]

After analysis I like Salikhov a lot.I think Trinaldo is to old to give him trouble.Salikhov controls distance really well and is faster,he'll light him up.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

@Rebel_LioN

One of the GOAT parlay bettors ever on this site. Some insane hits. Along with @TrueAscension the best big parlay hits I've seen here.

@NewcastleTom

Thanks for the shoutout. I’ve been severely limited by my offshore books as well and it kinda screwed up my props game and parlaying abilities. Either way 5dimes is fucked and now I’m just doing ML’s now.

Don’t post as often around these parts but I’m still betting. I own and run a pretty successful juice bar start up in California and it’s taking up a ton of my time and I can’t find time to tape watch.

Fortunately today I hit a pretty nice one because luckily there were a lot of veterans fighting tonight and I knew who they were without going to tape watch, super happy right now

 

[Oblivian]

Hindsight isn't really helpful unless you believe the universe is deterministic and the fight would have happened the exact same way every single time if we could redo it an infinite amount of times.

Nobody can predict the future, not even the bookies. The odds aren't even reflective of what they think the true probability of the event is. Because the bookies don't give a shit about predicting the future, they just want to pay out the same amount of cash to both sides and collect juice from the losing side.

10% implied volatility is a huge difference. It's the difference between +100 and +150 or the difference between -333 and -200. That's very significant imo.

Well no shit the fight doesn't happen that way every time, but it's pretty apparent watching fights that odds are way off. In other words, the rematch odds would be very different. If Leavitt fought Puelles again, where do you think odds would fall? Do you think the odds for De La Rosa and Lipski ITD would fall at the same spot? There are other fights where maybe a dog wins or even a favorite wins more clearly than odds indicate, but it's not like I think it plays out that way every time or even more than odds indicate.

I'd say the average bettor is consistently off 10%+ in implied probability whether it's betting the wrong side, not playing enough on the right side, skipping a bet, etc. It's MMA dude and we now have so many guys on the roster that many have no clue on how to get a read on. I understand how bookies make odds, but do you really think the MMA betting community is accurate enough to put the lines within a 5-10% margin? Of course not, and most are foolish to think they capping down to single digit %s.

 

[mkess101]

Ended up down .25u. Turned what would have been a winning night into a loser playing o2.5 in the ME. Oops haha.

 

[ballsackarino]

I understand how bookies make odds, but do you really think the MMA betting community is accurate enough to put the lines within a 5-10% margin? Of course not, and most are foolish to think they capping down to single digit %s.

I don't give a shit about the broader MMA community or the average bettor. They lose money, why would I care what they think. I'm not the average bettor.

I don't quite understand your point? Just because the majority of people can't cap a fight means that the system of looking at implied probability against the odds doesn't work?

Also rematches are not independent events so of course the odds would change when you're presented with new information.

 

[GigaOuts]

@NewcastleTom

Thanks for the shoutout. I’ve been severely limited by my offshore books as well and it kinda screwed up my props game and parlaying abilities. Either way 5dimes is fucked and now I’m just doing ML’s now.

Don’t post as often around these parts but I’m still betting. I own and run a pretty successful juice bar start up in California and it’s taking up a ton of my time and I can’t find time to tape watch.

Fortunately today I hit a pretty nice one because luckily there were a lot of veterans fighting tonight and I knew who they were without going to tape watch, super happy right now

View attachment 859181

I am not worthy, I am not worthy.
Winning that much money is not what I admire but winning that much money and have a job or a business going at the same time is beyond awesome.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I am not worthy, I am not worthy.
Winning that much money is not what I admire but winning that much money and have a job or a business going at the same time is beyond awesome.

That’s humbling thank you! And sometimes your eyes get fresher when you’re not pressured into making bets and needing to win so badly

Here’s my page!
https://www.instagram.com/drinksweetgrass
got all the pretty girls in my stories

 

[Oblivian]

I don't give a shit about the broader MMA community or the average bettor. They lose money, why would I care what they think. I'm not the average bettor.

I don't quite understand your point? Just because the majority of people can't cap a fight means that the system of looking at implied probability against the odds doesn't work?

Also rematches are not independent events so of course the odds would change when you're presented with new information.

Yes, clearly I'm stating "the system of looking at implied probability against odds doesn't work". I'm stating MMA bettors are absolutely nuts if they think they are truly capping to single digit percentages consistently. It's complete ego to think they can get it down that exact. I'm not shocked you feel that way though since you are "not the average bettor". If someone says, "I think he wins that fight 6-7 times out of 10", you can always chime in saying he's crazy to think 6-7 times out of ten when it's 6.2 out of 10 - 7 is just nuts!