UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai

[Black Paladin]

What abuse? I’m the big dawg now. I run Sherdog. Get yourself comfortable. My reign has just begun

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delusion
https://www.webmd.com/schizophrenia/delusions-grandeur
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll
https://screenrant.com/that-70s-show-red-dumbass-insult-origin-explained/

 

[Jackonfire]

What abuse? I’m the big dawg now. I run Sherdog. Get yourself comfortable. My reign has just begun

 

[Black Paladin]

Drake ovo: "Oh, no!"
Jackonfire: "Oh, yes!"

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I sense an incoming ban

It was an outerdrake alt account, I saw he liked all of his posts in this thread.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Everyone made weight

I saw the weigh ins and face offs. I have to say this is the most trickiest fight card thus far and to make it to more interesting everyone made weigh "Which is good for once" i had to change three out of my four bets originally..
I was originally on Fiorot but now i will be on Rosa. I think Rosa has better chances of landing a finish as well. For the main event i have thrown a little sparkle on Sakai and Roze in another.

 

[impressivegoal]

Damn, Harris in RD1 is +600. Man that screams value to me. I was thinking Harris ML price was decent but then I saw this beauty.

I’d think it’s a no brainer for anyone who plays Tybura to also play that.

 

[Black Paladin]

Damn, Harris in RD1 is +600. Man that screams value to me. I was thinking Harris ML price was decent but then I saw this beauty.

I’d think it’s a no brainer for anyone who plays Tybura to also play that.

For heavyweights, that line is WOW.

 

[mkess101]

Damn, Harris in RD1 is +600. Man that screams value to me. I was thinking Harris ML price was decent but then I saw this beauty.

I’d think it’s a no brainer for anyone who plays Tybura to also play that.

Not only HW, but Walt generally comes out throwing heat early. Great find.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Leavitt -3.5pts -135

Wow. This is a mismatch on paper in which Leavitt should find an early submission. Really surprised by this line.

 

[Oblivian]

10% is huge, a max bet for most

Honestly, I find it pretty funny if the average bettor thinks they are truly breaking down MMA fights to exact percentages where a swing of 5-10% is drastic. They likely make bets where they are 30%+ off. That's giving oddmakers and the general public way too much credit. Do we really think the oddsmakers and public are putting things within a 10% margin consistently? I think you can look through most events and find several lines that were over 10% off in retrospect. I mean we've even seen the line shifts more drastic than that in rematches.

 

[NonPhixion]

Oh I think if you really want to you can get around it. I know people who were having relatives sign up and betting through them, stuff like that. But there are people like me who don't bet enough to want to deal with all that. I was betting hundreds, not thousands when I got limited. Yeah profitable for a really long time (was betting MMA since 2006 and iirc only had 3 losing years and only one of those I'd consider significant losses in relation to my BR) but I was never interested in upping my unit size a ton or anything. It stayed just a hobby for me. My risk tolerance was never super high, and once I had a wife and kid and a career that I make a lot of $ in...my risk tolerance dropped even more. Pretty soon it will be legal throughout the US and we will have a ton of options for bookies. And I still will only bet my conservative amounts.

So for me, jumping through hoops to get $200 on a fight just wasn't worth it. The $20 limits were ridiculous, but I wasn't betting to "earn" money anyway. I like the challenge, to see if I can beat the book, etc. Winning or losing $1k on a card wasn't gonna change my lifestyle. To put it another way: I don't know how much action I'd have to have in order for it to really be considered a way for me to "earn" more $ given my household income is about $600k (to be fair that's both my wife and I combined) but I honestly don't want to find out. Like I said, low risk tolerance and whatever amount it would be...I'd feel like I'm needlessly taking risks.

Even the rare occasions I get to Vegas where limits don't come into play, I'm still just betting hundreds and not thousands.

If people can support themselves betting MMA and have to use some tricks to get around limits, that's awesome for them and I root for them to keep on rolling. That's just not for me.

under rated post.

 

[Devilboy86]

Leavitt -3.5pts -135

Wow. This is a mismatch on paper in which Leavitt should find an early submission. Really surprised by this line.

I think Puelles is a live dog. He has had previous long breaks so ring rust won't be an issue. Also first camp training at Sanford MMA and he's only 25 years old so may see significant improvements.

I was thinking Leavitt by decision feel like he will be able to take him down and show good top control and ride it out for the decision.

 

[DabanggData]

UFC Vegas 28,
Saturday, June 5, 2021
#UFCVegas28

Props to look at:

Montana De La Rosa by Dec +111
Dusko Todorovic KO +149 "Thunder"
Jordan Leavitt By Submission +150
Sean Woodson by Dec +155

Tom Breese KO +170
Tanner Boser by Dec +190
Roman Dolidze by Dec +190
Marcin Tybura By Dec +210

Augusto Sakai by Dec +330



Reading material from a website:

Todorovic is an extremely high-volume striker who is very accurate, landing nearly 70% of his significant strikes. He mixes his combinations smoothly, and he can finish you with a barrage of punches. Rodrigues has more of the one-shot finish ability, but he tends to get hit more than he lands. He is also a high-volume striker, but he doesn’t have the smoothness of Todorovic. Both men do like to come forward and aren’t afraid to get into a firefight, which could make for a fun fight. Rodrigues is coming in with the quick turnaround, so that could play a factor in his conditioning and durability. He’s going to need to be durable against a high-volume attack

If you’ve seen a De La Rosa fight, you know what she’s going to try and do, and that is grind it out and use clinch battles and takedowns to win fights. Lipski’s takedown defense has been pretty much non-existent, as she’s been taken down in four of her five UFC fights. Lipski will have the edge on the feet, as there’s a reason she’s called “The Violence Queen”, but De La Rosa knows how to take some damage on her feet. Both women tend to get hit more than they land, and De La Rosa will be willing to take shots to get the clinch and spam takedowns. De La Rosa isn’t the most accurate on her takedowns, but she’s relentless with them, and that will be a key here. Lipski could get lucky and find a submission on the mat, but De La Rosa is too skilled on the ground for that to happen, and I just see De La Rosa grinding out a decision in an ugly affair.

Boser is going to have a four-inch height advantage, a two-inch reach edge, and will be the bigger fighter inside the Octagon when the fight begins. He also brings a different kind of style that should stifle Latifi’s tendency to land short-range bombs, as Boser mixes in some strong footwork to go along with some good combinations. Boser is an accurate striker who lands nearly five significant strikes a minute, and Latifi isn’t even close to being as accurate. Latifi throws bombs and has some impressive physical strength, but he’s going to have to really work in the clinch and use his physicality if he’s going to have a shot against Boser. I don’t expect Latifi to be able to do that, as Boser is just too good with his footwork and movement.

Woodson is going to have a six-inch reach advantage in this one, which is good news for him, as he’ll be able to use his reach to keep Zalal on the outside. Zalal prefers to wrestle, as he’s not all that great on the feet, and Woodson can use the reach to establish the jab and keep him at bay. Woodson is also a very good boxer with a high-volume output, and Zalal isn’t much of a pressure fighter. Zalal could hope that Woodson gets tired from hitting him so much, but unless Woodson decides to clinch, which would be a bad idea, Zalal will have trouble getting him to the mat.

Breese does have some heavy power in his hands and is plenty capable of finishing it on the feet. Breese should utilize the takedown threat to open up his power punches as he is the better striker.

Leavitt is a strong wrestler who will look to wear Puelles down with the grappling. Neither man is going to scare anyone on the feet right now, so it’s going to be all about Leavitt draining the gas tank of Puelles. This could be a good fight, but both are still trying to show room for improvement and gain experience.

Roman Dolidze is going to have a four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage over Staropoli, and he is someone who knows how to use his length well. Staropoli does tend to land more than Dolidze, but he’s more of someone who likes to go blow-for-blow due to his durability. Dolidze has the edge in explosiveness, and he fights heavy on his lead leg, which lends to some violent knockouts. Dolidze could also rely on his wrestling and grappling, as he does have three submission wins under his belt, and Staropoli doesn’t have the best takedown defense. Dolidze will also likely be the bigger man inside the octagon, as he’s a former light heavyweight in just his second time at 185, while Staropoli is moving up to 185 for the first time.

Tybura might be one of the most underrated heavyweights in the division right now. He’s had a Blachowicz-like resurgence, which has come on the strength of a well-rounded attack and a solid chin. Harris does have tons of power, and if he catches Tybura with the right punch out of the southpaw stance, it could be lights out. Harris also tends to fold easily to pressure, and Tybura has become a good pressure fighter. Tybura typically lands more than Harris does and is more accurate, and Tybura can back up his striking with a good takedown game. Tybura pressuring Harris will also use up Harris’ gas tank, which isn’t all that great to begin with.

Augusto Sakai doesn’t have the natural talent that Gane does, and Rozenstruik should be on the attack right away. Sakai likes to battle inside the clinch and use some dirty boxing and short elbows, but also to grind down his opponents

 

[DonQ94]

UFC Vegas 28,
Saturday, June 5, 2021
#UFCVegas28

Props to look at:

Montana De La Rosa by Dec +111
Dusko Todorovic KO +149 "Thunder"
Jordan Leavitt By Submission +150
Sean Woodson by Dec +155

Tom Breese KO +170
Tanner Boser by Dec +190
Roman Dolidze by Dec +190
Marcin Tybura By Dec +210

Augusto Sakai by Dec +330



Reading material:

Todorovic is an extremely high-volume striker who is very accurate, landing nearly 70% of his significant strikes. He mixes his combinations smoothly, and he can finish you with a barrage of punches. Rodrigues has more of the one-shot finish ability, but he tends to get hit more than he lands. He is also a high-volume striker, but he doesn’t have the smoothness of Todorovic. Both men do like to come forward and aren’t afraid to get into a firefight, which could make for a fun fight. Rodrigues is coming in with the quick turnaround, so that could play a factor in his conditioning and durability. He’s going to need to be durable against a high-volume attack

If you’ve seen a De La Rosa fight, you know what she’s going to try and do, and that is grind it out and use clinch battles and takedowns to win fights. Lipski’s takedown defense has been pretty much non-existent, as she’s been taken down in four of her five UFC fights. Lipski will have the edge on the feet, as there’s a reason she’s called “The Violence Queen”, but De La Rosa knows how to take some damage on her feet. Both women tend to get hit more than they land, and De La Rosa will be willing to take shots to get the clinch and spam takedowns. De La Rosa isn’t the most accurate on her takedowns, but she’s relentless with them, and that will be a key here. Lipski could get lucky and find a submission on the mat, but De La Rosa is too skilled on the ground for that to happen, and I just see De La Rosa grinding out a decision in an ugly affair.

Boser is going to have a four-inch height advantage, a two-inch reach edge, and will be the bigger fighter inside the Octagon when the fight begins. He also brings a different kind of style that should stifle Latifi’s tendency to land short-range bombs, as Boser mixes in some strong footwork to go along with some good combinations. Boser is an accurate striker who lands nearly five significant strikes a minute, and Latifi isn’t even close to being as accurate. Latifi throws bombs and has some impressive physical strength, but he’s going to have to really work in the clinch and use his physicality if he’s going to have a shot against Boser. I don’t expect Latifi to be able to do that, as Boser is just too good with his footwork and movement.

Woodson is going to have a six-inch reach advantage in this one, which is good news for him, as he’ll be able to use his reach to keep Zalal on the outside. Zalal prefers to wrestle, as he’s not all that great on the feet, and Woodson can use the reach to establish the jab and keep him at bay. Woodson is also a very good boxer with a high-volume output, and Zalal isn’t much of a pressure fighter. Zalal could hope that Woodson gets tired from hitting him so much, but unless Woodson decides to clinch, which would be a bad idea, Zalal will have trouble getting him to the mat.

Breese does have some heavy power in his hands and is plenty capable of finishing it on the feet. Breese should utilize the takedown threat to open up his power punches as he is the better striker.

Leavitt is a strong wrestler who will look to wear Puelles down with the grappling. Neither man is going to scare anyone on the feet right now, so it’s going to be all about Leavitt draining the gas tank of Puelles. This could be a good fight, but both are still trying to show room for improvement and gain experience.

Roman Dolidze is going to have a four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage over Staropoli, and he is someone who knows how to use his length well. Staropoli does tend to land more than Dolidze, but he’s more of someone who likes to go blow-for-blow due to his durability. Dolidze has the edge in explosiveness, and he fights heavy on his lead leg, which lends to some violent knockouts. Dolidze could also rely on his wrestling and grappling, as he does have three submission wins under his belt, and Staropoli doesn’t have the best takedown defense. Dolidze will also likely be the bigger man inside the octagon, as he’s a former light heavyweight in just his second time at 185, while Staropoli is moving up to 185 for the first time.

Tybura might be one of the most underrated heavyweights in the division right now. He’s had a Blachowicz-like resurgence, which has come on the strength of a well-rounded attack and a solid chin. Harris does have tons of power, and if he catches Tybura with the right punch out of the southpaw stance, it could be lights out. Harris also tends to fold easily to pressure, and Tybura has become a good pressure fighter. Tybura typically lands more than Harris does and is more accurate, and Tybura can back up his striking with a good takedown game. Tybura pressuring Harris will also use up Harris’ gas tank, which isn’t all that great to begin with.

Augusto Sakai doesn’t have the natural talent that Gane does, and Rozenstruik should be on the attack right away. Sakai likes to battle inside the clinch and use some dirty boxing and short elbows, but also to grind down his opponents

Nice writeup, but I don't agree about Tybura having a good chin. He gets dinged fairly often and doesn't react well to being hit in general. He should look to survive the early barrage from Harris and drown him in the later rounds with his grappling.

 

[Bestonian]

Anybody have thoughts on the Jordan Leavitt fight? Can Jordan get he sub? What would be a good price?

Overrated. Soyboy.

The under 2.5 @ 1.77 is an insane value. Leavitt is a grappler with zero striking. His opponent can grapple and strike. Either Leavitt implements his gameplan and gets the TDs and the sub, or he gets the TDs and gasses out and will be pulled apart and TKO'd on feet. Worst case scenario his TDs will fail and rest is history. Under is great value.

 

[ballsackarino]

I think you can look through most events and find several lines that were over 10% off in retrospect. I mean we've even seen the line shifts more drastic than that in rematches.

Hindsight isn't really helpful unless you believe the universe is deterministic and the fight would have happened the exact same way every single time if we could redo it an infinite amount of times.

Nobody can predict the future, not even the bookies. The odds aren't even reflective of what they think the true probability of the event is. Because the bookies don't give a shit about predicting the future, they just want to pay out the same amount of cash to both sides and collect juice from the losing side.

10% implied volatility is a huge difference. It's the difference between +100 and +150 or the difference between -333 and -200. That's very significant imo.

 

[stipeszn]

I was here before you two. And nothing dumb for laughing at a 47% prediction rate from a guy who trashes other users.

I swear you guys are all literally the same person, its like a troll bot spawns every four comments.

Instead of troll bots, perhaps you just have horrible betting practices that multiple people are trying to point out? Laughing at win% while ignoring ROI is stupid. The goal is to make money. If you're consistently making money, you're doing something right.

 

[NewcastleTom]

Jim stopped posting awhile back, I'm honestly not sure why. IDK which others specifically you're talking about but I don't know about any other forum that guys migrated to from here.

There aren't many of the truly long time guys left. @Oblivian is the original, he actually made the threads in the heavies (now the UFC forum) before there was an MMA betting subforum. But yeah a lot of the old timers are long gone.

There was a guy with a Kobe Bryant aviator, or a big fan, from Long Beach, he'd bet a lot, mostly dogs and hit an insane amount of them.

 

[mkess101]

There was a guy with a Kobe Bryant aviator, or a big fan, from Long Beach, he'd bet a lot, mostly dogs and hit an insane amount of them.

@Rebel_LioN

One of the GOAT parlay bettors ever on this site. Some insane hits. Along with @TrueAscension the best big parlay hits I've seen here.

 

[NewcastleTom]

i dont think ez quit, he just figured out there is 0 benefit in giving out picks.

He was amazing at tennis picks, maybe he is just doing that lol