Gianni the Greek DWCS Bet Tracker Fail Thread

Sticko said:
We're already on week 8 so I might go back and do earlier weeks if there's interest. Thought it would be fun to keep track of how badly Gianni is doing. Since he doesn't show his bet slips, for simplicity's sake let's assume he bets $100 on underdogs and to win $100 on favorites. Someone correct me if my math is off.

First Bet: +296 parlay on Brandon Lewis to win, Malik Lewis to win, and Farid Basharat vs. Allan Begosso not going the distance
Did It Hit? Lol no. All 3 legs failed.
Gianni loses $100.

Second bet: -150 on Brandon Lewis to win
Did It Hit? Lol no. Brandon Lewis almost suffered a leg kick TKO and lost a lopsided decision.
Gianni loses $150.

Third bet: +125 on Marnic Mann to win
Did It Hit? Lol no. Marnic Mann suffered the greatest head kick knockout in DWCS WMMA history.
Gianni loses $100.

Fourth bet: -180 Malik Lewis to win
Did It Hit? Lol no. Lewis was grounded and pounded out in round two.
Gianni loses $180.

Fifth bet: -125 on Ikram Aliskerov vs. Mario Sousa to go over 1.5 rounds
Did It Hit? Lol no. Aliskerov kimura'd Sousa in just over 2 minutes.
Gianni loses $125.

Sixth bet: -230 on Farid Basharat to win
Did It Hit? Somehow yes.
Gianni wins $100.

Seventh bet: +120 on Farid Basharat to win inside the distance
Did It Hit? Lol no. Basharat won a dominant decision.
Gianni loses $100.

1/7 bets hit
Total staked: $1085
Return: $330
Gianni loses $755.

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What? This?

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Week 6

Bet 1: +542 parlay on Matej Penaz to win (-165), Rodrigo Lidio to win (+200), and Maria Silva to win (-300)
Did It Hit? Lol no, all three of these fighters lost.
Gianni loses $100.

Bet 2: +110 on Alex Morgan to win inside the distance
Did It Hit? No, Morgan gets RNC'd in round 1 by Blake Bilder.
Gianni loses $100.

Bet 3: -300 on Maria Silva to win ("the dogs have been barking, but I'm on Maria Silva here")
Did It Hit? No, Maria Silva loses by UD to Maria Dudakova
Gianni loses $300 as the dogs bark again

Bet 4: +200 on Rodrigo Lidio to win ("I don't strategy jump, and I like the underdog here")
Did It Hit? Lol no, Lidio is RNC'd in the first by Mateusz Rebecki
Gianni loses $100

Bet 5: -165 on Matej Penaz to win
Did It Hit? No (see below)
Gianni loses $165.

Bet 6: -175 on Matej Penaz vs. Sedriques Dumas to go over 1.5 rounds
Did It Hit? Nope, Dumas by guillotine in the first
Gianni loses $175

Bet 7: +140 on Yasuku Kinoshita vs. Jose Henrique to go over 2.5 rounds
Did It Hit? Yes, Kinoshita got the knockout in the third round. It was the featured bout which makes it somehow more important, right? I'm not a betting man, but I think that's how that works.
Gianni wins $140

1/7 bets hit
Staked: $1040
Return: $240
Gianni loses $800

Cumulative
10/41 bets hit (0/6 on parlays)
Gianni is -$2775 after 6 weeks
 
Week 7

Bet 1: +258 parlay on Tereza Bleda to win (-560), Gabriel Bonfim vs. Trey Waters to go over 1.5 rounds (-130), and Vitor Petrino to win (-140)
Did It Hit? Bleda and Petrino held up their ends, but Bonfim killed the parlay by finishing off Waters with a von Flue choke in the first
Gianni loses $100

Bet 2: -560 on Tereza Bleda to win
Did It Hit? Yes, Bleda defeats Nayara Maia by UD
Gianni wins $100

Super heavy chalk there but it pays off

Bet 3: -125 on Nariman Abbasov to win
Does It Hit? No, Abbasov loses a UD to Ismael Bonfim
Gianni loses $125

Bet 4: -225 on Jimmy Lawson to win
Did It HIt? Not at all, Lawson shits the bed big time and Karl Williams wins by UD
Gianni loses $225

Bet 5: +330 on Trey Waters to win
Did It Hit? No, Gabriel Bonfim by von Flue
Gianni loses $100

Gianni says "you already know I'm on the over" because he had Waters vs. G. Bonfim going long in his parlay, but they didn't put the pick on the screen again so I'm not sure whether to count it as a separate bet or not. I guess not? Trying to be consistent about this. Let me know what you think. I guess my basic approach when there's a redundant bet is to assume Gianni has the parlay at one sportsbook and the same bet on the individual fight at a different sportsbook with the same odds.

Bet 6: +150 on Vitor Petrino vs. Rafael Bellato to go over 1.5 rounds ("probably going to look like a fool in the short term, but that's how you profit long term sometimes, so it's either over 1.5 or leave it alone for me")
Did It Hit? Yes, Petrino with the KO finish at 3:36 of round two
Gianni wins $150

Gianni's ability to hold his breath for seven and a half minutes pays off, and he wins another bet on a featured bout.

<JennieThumbsUp>

2/6 bets hit
Staked: $1210
Return: $910
Gianni loses $300

Cumulative
12/47 bets hit (0/7 parlays)
Gianni is -$3075 after 7 weeks
 
On one of his recent IG videos he was saying, "underdogs have only won 32% of the time this year, compared to 37% of the time in previous years, so you're going to see me taking a lot more of them for the rest of the year so I can ride that inevitable wave of cashing underdogs as everything evens itself back out".

I don't think it works like that though, Gia.
 
Unironically good week for Gianni the Teeth, the Bet Tracker Fail Thread in shambles right now

Week 9

A more circumspect Gianni failed to make any parlay bets to open the show. He was 0-for-8 on parlays for the season.

1st Bet: +135 on Nurullo Aliev vs. Joshua Wick to go under 2.5 rounds
Did It Hit? Yes, Aliev by first-round GnP TKO
Gianni wins $135.

I don't get why they opened with Gianni's bet on the second fight of the evening, but it pays off. Aliev gets the early finish despite having 6 wins by decision and 1 win by second-round corner stoppage prior to this point in his career.

2nd Bet: -180 on Jafel Filho to win
Did It hit? Yes. Filho by third-round knockout over the Venezuelan, Roybert Echeverria.
Gianni wins $100.

Unless I'm mistaken Gianni did not place any bets on the third fight, Austen Lane vs. Richard Jacobi

3rd Bet: -170 on Raul Rosas Jr. to win
Did It Hit? Yes, 17-year-old phenom Rosas Jr. outgrapples Mando Gutierrez for a 30-27 UD.
Gianni wins $100.

4th Bet: -210 on Bruno Ferreira to win
Did It Hit? Yes, Ferreira by first-round KO over the Albanian, Leon Aliu.
Gianni wins $100

4-for-4 on bets
Staked: $660
Return: $1095
Gianni wins $435

6u3mol.jpg


Thanks @BEATDOWNS for sharing this haunting image

Cumulatively:
17/58 bets hit (0/8 parlays)
Gianni is -$3395 after 9 weeks
He has had one break-even week, 7 losing weeks, and 1 winning week
 
Sticko said:
Honestly when I heard Gianni wasn't doing a parlay this week, I wondered if he or someone close to him had been reading this thread.

<Aug3>
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He also did well on the UFC this weekend, perhaps he's turned over a new leaf.
 
People who give away betting advice, be it on youtube or tv, usually dont have your best interest at heart. People who are actually winning and making a profit, dont give away advice at all, as it would mess with their own profits in the long term, so you are stuck listening to hacks who most likely takes money from casinos/betting sites.
 
KnockoutArtist said:
On one of his recent IG videos he was saying, "underdogs have only won 32% of the time this year, compared to 37% of the time in previous years, so you're going to see me taking a lot more of them for the rest of the year so I can ride that inevitable wave of cashing underdogs as everything evens itself back out".

I don't think it works like that though, Gia.
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That's such a brutal gambler's fallacy that I can't believe anyone in the industry actually believes. That's a drunk bro at a casino logic. The previous fight has no impact on the next fight.

If there's a 5% discrepancy on dogs hitting this season compared to last, the more likely culprit is that the UFC is setting up even more mismatches to make sure their favored prospects win when the lights are on, so shifting gambling to favor the favorite in light of the new fav/dog split would be the more rational direction to turn on that stat of 32% vs 37%.


Gambler's fallacy
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the incorrect belief that, if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been fewer than the usual number of sixes.

The term "Monte Carlo fallacy" originates from the best known example of the phenomenon, which occurred in the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913.[1]
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I think this week I'm going to ask my 9 year old daughter to make some picks and see if she would win more money than Gianni.
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I remember asking my mom to predict the GSP/Bisping MSG card and she was 90% on point from the early prelims up, even predicted the upsets.

MMA gambling is a larp.
 
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