Gianni the Greek DWCS Bet Tracker Fail Thread

Week 4

Bet 1: +424 parlay on Claudia Leite to win (-115), Jack Cartwright vs. Jose Johnson to go under 2.5 rounds (-200), and Claudio Ribeiro vs. Ivan Valenzuela to go over 1.5 rounds (-115)
Did It Hit? Lol no. Gianni did the unthinkable here: he parlayed three legs at favorite odds and missed on all of them. Leite lost a decision. Johnson won a decision. And Valenzuela got knocked out in 25 seconds.
Gianni loses $100.

Gianni would save so much money if he just stopped betting on stupid parlays.

Bet 2: +160 on Ahmad Hassanzada to win
Did It Hit? No, Hassanzada was knocked out in round 3.
Gianni loses $100.

Bet 3: -200 on Ahmad Hassanzada vs. Nazim Sadykhov to go under 2.5 rounds
Did It Hit? No, it reached the third round.
Gianni loses $200.

Bet 4: -115 on Claudia Leite to win
Did It Hit? No, this is starting to get ugly. Leite loses by split decision.
Gianni loses $115.

Bet 5: -105 on Jack Cartwright to win
Did It Hit? No, Cartwright loses by UD.
Gianni loses $105.

Bet 6: -115 Claudio Ribeiro vs. Ivan Valenzuela to go over 1.5 rounds
Did It Hit? No.
Gianni loses $115.

Bet 7: +210 on Thomas Paull to win - "Came in with an excellent gameplan: bet the dogs today. And they're 3 and 1 versus the closing line. But huge line moves resulted in terrible execution on my part. But I can't strategy jump now. That's not how you have long-term success."
Did It Hit? No, Paull was knocked out in the first round.
Gianni loses $100.

0/7 bets hit.
Staked: $835
Return: $0
Gianni loses $835 this week

Disastrous week, worse than the first 3 weeks combined.

Cumulative:
7/26 bets hit (0 for 4 on parlays)
Gianni is -$1435 after 4 weeks
 
And after all that DC still says the retard is a betting genius.
 
latest
 
never listen to someone with teeth like that

Till included.
 
His problem is he doesn’t know fighting or anything about the fighters he’s betting on. He tries to apply a gambler’s fallacy (such as last 4 middleweight fights were finishes, we’re due for a decision) and find trends that don’t exist.
 
I'm looking at the thing he does on Fight Pass with Nick Kalikas and his picks seem to be dogshit on there too.

Week 2 he puts $100 on Johnny Munoz Jr to beat Tony Gravely and $100 on Poliana Botelho to beat Karine Silva and loses both.
 
Oh please go back (if you can stomach it). I’d love to see his running total on the scene

losing 3 favorites bets and 2 slight dogs (+125 and +120) while only wining a large favorite bet is the type of fail that should take effort
 
Sticko said:
That's a good idea. I'll look into doing that a bit later on.
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brackis1 said:
I'd be happy to make a burner Gmail and contribute. My arrangement skills for setting up the best template probably aren't great.
I was travelling and forgot to watch last night's episode.
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Sticko said:
Sure, just message me later and I'll give some thought as well to which data to track.
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I’d be in to assist this. I even have a google doc with formulas made I’ve used to track some of my preferred YouTube cappers and see who has the edge long term.

It would apply perfectly here.
 
ChimRichalds said:
I don't get how someone can be SO bad at picking MMA fights, yet continue to be brought on a show to do it. You would think he could get SOME right just on accident. But it seems like he picks wrong on an impossibly large scale.
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He uses math, probabilities to make his picks. Which may work in team sports to some degree.
As you see it doesn't work in MMA. Even in slightest.
 
Fading the Greek seems pretty lucrative.

In order to bet MMA you need to understand the sport and its fighters. There are a lot of wonky lines and money to be made. Colby by decision vs Masvidal at -105 and a Whittaker over Vettori and Israel over Cannonier parlay at near even money was some of the easiest money I've ever made in my life. Betting MMA is potentially incredibly lucrative if you know the sport, the matchups, and the fighters. Merely crunching numbers like Gianni does might work for football and basketball, but not MMA.
 
HockeyBjj said:
I’d be in to assist this. I even have a google doc with formulas made I’ve used to track some of my preferred YouTube cappers and see who has the edge long term.

It would apply perfectly here.
Click to expand...
That would be awesome dude; thanks.
 
Sticko said:
We're already on week 8 so I might go back and do earlier weeks if there's interest. Thought it would be fun to keep track of how badly Gianni is doing. Since he doesn't show his bet slips, for simplicity's sake let's assume he bets $100 on underdogs and to win $100 on favorites. Someone correct me if my math is off.

First Bet: +296 parlay on Brandon Lewis to win, Malik Lewis to win, and Farid Basharat vs. Allan Begosso not going the distance
Did It Hit? Lol no. All 3 legs failed.
Gianni loses $100.

Second bet: -150 on Brandon Lewis to win
Did It Hit? Lol no. Brandon Lewis almost suffered a leg kick TKO and lost a lopsided decision.
Gianni loses $150.

Third bet: +125 on Marnic Mann to win
Did It Hit? Lol no. Marnic Mann suffered the greatest head kick knockout in DWCS WMMA history.
Gianni loses $100.

Fourth bet: -180 Malik Lewis to win
Did It Hit? Lol no. Lewis was grounded and pounded out in round two.
Gianni loses $180.

Fifth bet: -125 on Ikram Aliskerov vs. Mario Sousa to go over 1.5 rounds
Did It Hit? Lol no. Aliskerov kimura'd Sousa in just over 2 minutes.
Gianni loses $125.

Sixth bet: -230 on Farid Basharat to win
Did It Hit? Somehow yes.
Gianni wins $100.

Seventh bet: +120 on Farid Basharat to win inside the distance
Did It Hit? Lol no. Basharat won a dominant decision.
Gianni loses $100.

1/7 bets hit
Total staked: $1085
Return: $330
Gianni loses $755.

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you are doing the blessed work of JBG. Thank you.
 
Week 5

Bet 1: +258 on Denise Gomes to win (-240), Erisson Ferreira to win (-165), and Eduardo Neves to win (-175)
Did It Hit? Nope, Gomes won, but Ferreira and Neves both lost
Gianni loses $100

Bet 2: -240 on Denise Gomes to win ("I'm not comfortable laying heavy chalk, but we've got it on our parlay, so hopefully we get that first leg in")
Did It Hit? Yes, Gomes by decision
Gianni wins $100

Bet 3: +160 on Joshua Wang-Kim vs. Cameron Saaiman to go under 1.5 rounds
Did It Hit? No, Saaiman won by KO in the third round
Gianni loses $100

Bet 4: -165 on Erisson Ferreira to win
Did It Hit? No.
Gianni loses $165

Bet 5: -175 on Jesus Aguilar vs. Erisson Ferreira to go over 1.5 rounds
Did It Hit? Yes, Aguilar won by third-round submission
Gianni wins $100

For the next fight, Darrius Flowers vs. Amiran Gogoladze, I don't think they asked Gianni to talk since they brought in Sean O'Malley as a guest commentator but they did show two of Gianni's picks on the screen

Bet 6: +140 on Darrius Flowers vs. Amiran Gogoladze to go over 1.5 rounds
Did It Hit? No, Flowers wins by TKO (injury caused by slam) in the first round
Gianni loses $100

Bet 7: +550 on Amiran Gogoladze to win by decision
Did It Hit? No, Flowers by TKO.
Gianni loses $100.

Bet 8: -175 on Eduardo Neves to win
Did It Hit? No, Neves got submitted in the first round
Gianni loses $175

I get what Gianni was trying to do on this bet, Mick Parkin was the underdog but he didn't want to bet him because Parkin although 5-0 hadn't faced an opponent with a winning record. But sometimes people take that step up in competition and it turns out they're actually good, you know?

2/8 bets hit
Staked: $1155
Return: $615
Gianni loses $540

Cumulative
9/34 bets hit (0/5 on parlays)
Gianni is -$1975 after 5 weeks

This hole is starting to get deep, I hope Gianni wins a bet in the next two weeks to get out of it

<1>
 
Lol @ ever listening to shill picks. Prob as detrimental long term as taking the shaded public favorites on square books.
 
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