If you want to keep up with my breakdown, please check my first post:
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufn-103-rodriguez-vs-penn-phoenix.3429257/page-33#post-125924341
View attachment 195435
Alright, let's start by the last event's results. I did not have a good overall picks %, but some things are worth pointing out.
I mainly had parlays in this event, and one of my hedgers was CourtMcGee
My wrong picks were Held ( I got him in this fight, J-Lo too haha ), McGee ( Also got McGee, but I understand the decision - maybe the new judging? ), Moraga ( Pettis won - but close fight ), Saenz ( Debatable as well, but I think Mendes won ), and Smoliakov, who honestly I did not have a clue about how the fight would go.
So, overall, no big deal. I got Harris ITD right and Moraga GTD as well
So, for this next event, here goes my cents:
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5 - Peña - DEC
After reading so many comments about how Valentina will run through Peña here, I certainly got a confidence decrease in Peña, but I still have to point that Peña is relentless, pressures a lot and maybe that will work perfectly agaisnt Valentina. She may have been training for infinite rounds, but in her own way. If Peña manages to take her down and put her game on, Valentina may lose by Dec or late rounds sub.
VERY close fight.
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5 - Cerrone - DEC
Ok, this is another ULTRA close fight for me. Really. Masvidal is very confident and I think that his relentless pressure style maybe cause Cerrone big trouble ( RDA deja vu ), but how to be so sure about it when he is fighting a guy that is on a tear ( 12-1 in his last 13 and lost to the same guy twice only )...
I hate picking someone in this fight, but Cerrone's technique and momentum decides it for me.
P.S.: I think that Masvidal DEC (+350) and specially Masvidal KO ( +550 ) and 1/2 (+1000/+1200) have great value.
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2 - Ngannou - KO 1/2 - ITD
Alright, my first Group 2 pick. Ngannou is a beast and I would put him in Group 1 but, of course, stuff make me a bit less confident. I think that in th heavyweight division, strategy counts a bit less than brute force.
Don't get me wrong, but a guy like Ngannou can muscle out of a lot of situations. The guy is a machine and a great prospect for me, but Arlovski has always been a powerhouse and may catch Ngannou right?
There is also a slight possibility that he triest to clinch/grind him to a decision. Anyway, almost a group 1 choice for me.
I also think that Arlovski KO 1/2 have great value.( +1100/+1700 )
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5 - Caceres - DEC ( GTD )
So many hard picks in this event. The cancelled bouts were good for me...Well, let's continue.
Knight is good, but I'm not really impressed yet. He hasn't fought anyone on Caceres' level and Lee Roy's elusiveness may be a threat for Knight. I think that this fight may be boring after the first round.
Good value on Caceres dec ( +350 )
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4 - Alvey - DEC
Alright, this one is interesting. I understand that all of you prefer Marquardt because of the momentum and some good wins, plus experience and ground game...But I think that Alvey edges it. It is funny, indeed, but I think that his style is very similar to Hendo's without the H-Bomb.
I got the snoozefest feeling. Marquardt will try to get some takedowns without success, Alvey stuffs and jabs, and maybe gets a tko/ko, but unlikely...
I see GREAT value on Alvey dec +600.
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5 - Sterling - DEC
Gosh, another ultra close fight. Sterling has let me down on his last bout and made me lose a lot of money. Fuck him and Caraway...But the guy is talented. Assuncao made a good fight agaisnt the great TJ even after the layoff, but styles make fights and I think Sterling is a very good prospect. Unpredictable fight, I cannot understand how someone can be confident here.
Ah, it's worth mentioning that Sterling made bad decisions on his last bout, some low fight IQ flashes, but I think he learned from it.
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4 - Nash - KO 1/2 ( ITD )
Nash impressed me a bit. I would've put him in Group 3, but it is a debut. I don't see anything great in Li Jingliang and Bobby's explosiveness should warrant him a KO/TKO early on.
Great value on Nash KO ( +375 ), and Nash KO 1/2 ( +700/+1000 )
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5 - Johnson - KO 2/3
I'm tired of close fights. Henrique da Silva is a bit underrated right now, but we are not so sure about Craig's potential just yet. Johnson is a great wrestler and us, Brazilians, usually don't like to fight them unless we have great TDD or ultra great off the back jits ( Werdum, Maia...).
Da Silva gets tired easily too, and despite being more technical, there's nothing worse than a tired fighter. I could've put Johnson in group 4, but it is a debut. Be careful.
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4 - Di Chirico - DEC
Curious fight. How good is Di Chirico? How good is Spicely? Spicely capitalized on Santos's mistake ( going 100% for the early knockout in his hometown ) and made me lose money again!
I remember Di Chirico's debut and liked him. I think that Spicely's toolbox is limited and that may cost him the fight. If the fight goes on the ground though...
I kinda believe the kid. He can stuff takedowns and jab all night. He won't gas.
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4 - Lima - KO 1/2 - ITD
Good fight ahead. Lima doesn't show a lot of fight IQ, but he is very agressive, fearless and a bit technical. He has also fought harder fights and Kimball's footage didn't impress me. His loss to Camozzi also makes me more confident on my bet...Damn, Camozzi is an average at best. And much lighter than Lima...
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5 - Shelton - DEC
Just a gut feeling. This fight could go either way, but Shelton edges it standing, imo. I don't think that Pantoja will be able to take him down but he also won't take too many risks. Flyweights also have a tendency of going the distance, but I won't bet confidently on that.
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5 - Cottrell - Sub 1/2
Cottrell has shown good potential and made a good fight in ultra short notice agaisnt the tank Michel Prazeres. He has decent standup and good ground game. Overall, he seems to be better than Gonzales - he hasn't impressed me at all.