Sportsbet.com.au - Aussie book owned by Paddy Power (so i guess UK bettors will have these odds available)Where are you getting these? Asking for a friend......
Sportsbet.com.au - Aussie book owned by Paddy Power (so i guess UK bettors will have these odds available)Where are you getting these? Asking for a friend......
Sportsbet.com.au - Aussie book owned by Paddy Power (so i guess UK bettors will have these odds available)
Lawler +255 is good value, but the reasoning is absolutely silly.
The fact that you claim Askren has been "decisioning cans" shows you have very little, if any knowledge of his career, and is the kind of nonsense I would expect from the General MMA subforum, not this one.
Of Askren's last 9 fights, stretching back all the way to June 2013, only 1 has gone to decision. The other 7 were stoppage victories and 1 was an early no contest.
The one decision victory was against Nikolay Aleksakhin, a very good, very strong, and enormous welterweight (looking an entire weight class bigger than Askren) who is significantly better than at least half of the UFC's welterweight roster. And Askren dominated him.
And while they had yet to hit their primes, there is something to be said for Askren dominating young versions of Douglas Lima (top 5 welterweight), Koreshkov (at least top 12), and Lyman Good (top 20) when he himself hadn't evolved his MMA game.
Gastelum has crazy fast hands and good power behind. He is a live dog against anyone at MW just because he can catch anybody.Anyone have a convincing argument for Gastelum beating Whittaker. He gassed vs Jacare has one dimensional boxing on the feet and won't be able to get takedowns. He's got a great chin so I don't see him getting KO'd but thats it. I doubt he KOs Whittaker after he just survived all he did with Romero and it's not like he hits that hard anyway. I'd expect Whittaker to dominate to a decision more often than not.
I was super happy I got him at +200 thinking it was a stupid opener. I assume the bettors are even more stupid.Lawler +255 seems insane to me. Askren hasn't fought elite competition, ever. Robbie is certainly on his way out and I wouldn't call him "elite" anymore, but he's a proven UFC vet fighting a guy whose been decisioning cans at an inferior organization.
100%, I had Smith against volkan and it played out pretty much how I expected except Smith gassed much worse than I expected. He was so close to going down himself in round three, it was a battle of attrition that he had a slight edge over oz. Against JJ there's no chance. He doesn't have the power to even land a lucky shot against Jon at that level of fatigue. If he tries to conserve again Jon will pour it on and it's over. I don't know if the sub line will have much value over Jones itd. Think they are both likely but would say higher chance of ko/too. As he did vs Gus, Jones looks to punch first when he gains a dominant position over searching for the sub. Obviously if it's there he will take it, but not many guys last long enough to even give him the opportunity.I love Anthony Smith. Nice tattoos, friendly fella. But he is so overmatched here it's not even real. He doesn't have the motor Jones have. No way he can match Jones' tempo for more than a round. He will be totally toasted after three rounds with Jones IMO. I would like to see that Jones by sub prop. Anthony is leaving too huge oppenings on the ground for a guy like Jones to not to take advantage of. For sure Jones finishes him. It could be a KO, but I'm leaning submission for now. Yeah, he didin't finish OSP, but OSP is not Smith. Whole different sets of problems and it was not the original opponent.
Off the topic, but I think Oezdemir was pure shit on his feet in their fight. The only reason Smith didn't just flat out owned him there and just win by decision in a stand up fight, is that Smith has finite amout of gas, he has to take his breaks inbetween action otherwise he would burn his muscles. I don't know what the issue is, but he doesn't seem fit to go the distance... And before you guys say anything - yeah, I know Smith is not a Badr Hari here, he was making a lot of mistakes in that fight standing up, but was obvious that Smith had idea what to do, he tried to control the distance, put a jab out there and mix up his punches and kicks. His issues stemmed more from his poor conditioning and lack of dynamism I think, more than a lack of technique or preparation for the opponent. If Anthony Smith had Thiago Santos' athleticism he would've won that fight by KO or dominant decision. I don't care how tough is Volkan.
Smith Sub5. It is known. Hush.100%, I had Smith against volkan and it played out pretty much how I expected except Smith gassed much worse than I expected. He was so close to going down himself in round three, it was a battle of attrition that he had a slight edge over oz. Against JJ there's no chance. He doesn't have the power to even land a lucky shot against Jon at that level of fatigue. If he tries to conserve again Jon will pour it on and it's over. I don't know if the sub line will have much value over Jones itd. Think they are both likely but would say higher chance of ko/too. As he did vs Gus, Jones looks to punch first when he gains a dominant position over searching for the sub. Obviously if it's there he will take it, but not many guys last long enough to even give him the opportunity.
What's the line on that hahahSmith Sub5. It is known. Hush.
+120 RoseWhat's the line on that hahah
Agree. I thought there was a night and day difference in Thug Rose's striking from the Waterson fight to JJ 1. Really starting to master that Whitman style. Even Pat Barry was praising her in the embedded videos on how much her technique has changed in a short amount of time. Also gotta think Rose has been practicing get ups and limp legging out of single legs. I like Rose in this matchup as well. Hoping the line widens more and will add a sprinkle on Rose Sub. She got one of the best back takes at 115.I really don't understand the hype around Andrade. Her striking is technically poor, but she has a big power advantage thanks to the anabolics. She is also short and slow, a bad combination. Now, thanks to a victory against a very mediocre fighter in Karolina K., some people think she is a lock against the far longer, taller, more technical, and faster Rose?!
I'll very happily be betting Rose at + odds at some point.
Joanna has outstanding TDD and defensive wrestling and can stay composed and build momentum as the fight goes on. Rose doesn't like pressure, doesn't have great wrestling and noticeably gets weaker as fights go on, Karolina (who really isn't mediocre her clinch and toughness is excellent plus she savaged Rose) and Esparza broke her inside 3 rounds pushing forward and taking the fight to her which Andrade is certain too. Pretty sure Andrade even has higher level BJJ too. Rose may have better fundamental striking but so does Karolina, Tecia, Gadelha, Joanna Calderwood and Karolina etc. who still all got hammered, at best winning a competitive first round.I really don't understand the hype around Andrade. Her striking is technically poor, but she has a big power advantage thanks to the anabolics. She is also short and slow, a bad combination. Now, thanks to a victory against a very mediocre fighter in Karolina K., some people think she is a lock against the far longer, taller, more technical, and faster Rose?!
I'll very happily be betting Rose at + odds at some point.
Joanna has outstanding TDD and defensive wrestling and can stay composed and build momentum as the fight goes on.
Jordan3399 said:Rose doesn't like pressure, doesn't have great wrestling and noticeably gets weaker as fights go on, Karolina (who really isn't mediocre her clinch and toughness is excellent plus she savaged Rose) and Esparza broke her inside 3 rounds pushing forward and taking the fight to her which Andrade is certain too.
Jordan3399 said:Not to mention being in Brazil will likely screw with Rose a lot, she managed to block out 1 Joanna but thousands of Brazils screaming she's going to die while she gets marched down by Andrade seems like a pretty awful scenario for her.
Jordan3399 said:Rose may have better fundamental striking but so does Karolina, Tecia, Gadelha, Joanna Calderwood and Karolina etc. who still all got hammered, at best winning a competitive first round.
You do realize that Rose is a better wrestler than Joanna and took her down in their rematch, right? I'm also not sure about Joanna's takedown defense being so "outstanding" when Valentina took her down at will from the clinch.
The "stay composed and build momentum" line is narrative/hype more than a quantifiable skill.
If you want to make a big bet on Andrade, then go for it. But spare us this dishonest silliness.
Karolina did not "savage" Rose, and Roses's loss to Karolina (nevermind when she was 22 to Esparza) is no more relevant than Andrade's miserable losses to Reneau and Pennington.
By itself, this is merely an angle I disagree with. There is no way to tell how a fighter will react to hatred, and I'm sure plenty of people thought Rose was scared half to death by the "Boogie Woman", which didn't turn out so well for the latter.
But in context, this is absolutely hilarious. You're the same guy who discounted Max Holloway's serious medical/brain issues that required a trip to the emergency room and caused him to pull out of a major event. Yet, the prospect of a fighter being spooked by a hostile crowd is a major point to why she will lose?! Sure, there is a small possibility that's correct, but such a blatant lack of consistency in approach makes it hard to take any of your post seriously.
Lastly,
All the fighters you named, even the second mention of Karolina (I'm assuming an improved, cyborg version of the original), have technically awful striking I wouldn't call any better than Andrade's. Rose is a level or two higher than all of them in that regard.