Bellator 149 - shamrock vs gracie... again...

they took the reduced juice out and the kimbo line back up to -200

man, f that fight, lol
 
I don't share other people's worries about a fix in these co-main events, just the small chance that Da Da could catch Kimbo with a punch or smallish chance Royce submits Ken.

Bellator 149
Risk $1677.50

Ken Shamrock (-110) vs Royce Gracie $330.00 for $300.00
Ken Shamrock wins by 3 round decision (+490) $50.00 for $245.00
Ken Shamrock/Royce Gracie draw (+18500) $10.00 for $1,850.00
Kimbo Slice (-190) vs Dhafir Harris $570.00 for $300.00
Kimbo Slice (-270) vs Dhafir Harris $270.00 for $100.00
Linton Vassell (+140) vs Emanuel Newton $75.00 for $105.00
Linton Vassell wins by 3 round decision (+180) $40.00 for $72.00
Daniel Pineda/Emmanuel Sanchez Over 2½ (-165) $82.50 for $50.00
Melvin Guillard/Derek Campos Under 1½ (+120) $50.00 for $60.00

Parlays:
Kimbo Slice (-270) vs Dhafir Harris + Ken Shamrock/Royce Gracie Over 1½ (+120) $100.00 for $201.48
Melvin Guillard (-270) vs Derek Campos + Linton Vassell/Emanuel Newton Over 2½ (-210) $100.00 for $102.29
 
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bella 149 Risk: 558
gracie DEC: 25 for 197.50 / gracie no scorecards: 75 for 50 / shamrock O1.5: 50 for 60
dada-kimbo: idk
vassell +159: 200 for 317.50 / newton
pineda +132: 150 for 198.50 / pineda DEC: 33 for 97.02 / sanchez
campos DEC: 25 for 135 / guillard
---

maybe not 100% set but prolly close to it. thought a TON about pineda-sanchez. hope i came to right conclusion. i see a CLOSE fight happening, and i think hometown decision could be in store if so. i'm fully aware he has all w's as finishes previously. i've also made a lot on sanchez last two fights. we'll see how it goes.
 
* – Guillard weighed in at 158 pounds initially but made weight on his second attempt.
 
Emanuel Newton -120 $24 for $20

It's my only bet tonight. I'm only watching the last 3 fights on the card, and I'm 100% not touching the Ken/Royce and Kimbo/Dada fights.
 
Line movement spooked me away from playing Kimbo. I am going to just lay the massive juice for the under 1.5
 
Line movement spooked me away from playing Kimbo. I am going to just lay the massive juice for the under 1.5
You should just skip this fight all together if you feel that way. For all we know, they can both gas out in the first few minutes and stroll to a decision. There's no value at all in the u1.5 right now. Maybe when it was like -350. It's extremely unlikely, but I put some on Dada DEC +4000 and Draw +35000
 
Ken Shamrock (-110) vs Royce Gracie $330.00 for $300.00
Ken Shamrock wins by 3 round decision (+490) $50.00 for $245.00

I respect your opinion, which is why i want to know what makes you so confident in Shamrock? I actually like Royce here. If you takeaway the name value Shamrock brings to the table and just look at his actual fights, his performances has been very disappointing. Hows Shamrock going to win? No knockout power, not going to sub Gracie and doesn't usually win via decision. You can also say the same thing about Gracie but the winning edge for Gracie will be his heart and cardio. Shamrock should make it competitive in the first round but Gracie should take over.
 
You should just skip this fight all together if you feel that way. For all we know, they can both gas out in the first few minutes and stroll to a decision. There's no value at all in the u1.5 right now. Maybe when it was like -350. It's extremely unlikely, but I put some on Dada DEC +4000 and Draw +35000

In terms of value, you're right. However street fights don't tend to go that long, let alone they're fighting at heavyweight. I'd be surprised if this goes past 3 minutes.
 
Kimbo + Brunson £100 @ +102.

Ken dec £50 @ +350.

Ken Royce over 1.5 £50 @ evens.

For Brits Bellator is repeated tomorrow night on Spike if you have Sky, etc.
 
In terms of value, you're right. However street fights don't tend to go that long, let alone they're fighting at heavyweight. I'd be surprised if this goes past 3 minutes.
I would be surprised also. For what it's worth, I did do a parlay with the u1.5 at -350. I just cannot fathom a SU bet with it at -500 or worse. Good luck, regardless
 
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