Boxing discussion
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With a crazy line like this, I can't help but risk a sawbuck on boxing tonight. A couple of the articles I read online made it sound like this undefeated junior middleweight prospect Lubin is still a work in progress who should really be fighting at welterweight while the massive underdog Macias gives up some size and power but isn't a bad fighter himself.
PBC on Bounce TV Risk $10.00
Jose De Jesus Macias (+4500) vs Erickson Lubin $10.00 for $450.00
PBC on Bounce TV Risk $10.00
Jose De Jesus Macias (+4500) vs Erickson Lubin $10.00 for $450.00
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good enough for me
Disappointed that this card isn't streaming live on BounceTV.com like the last couple of times. I don't have a digital antenna to try to pull in the local Miami station over-the-air. Guess I'll just have to check updates online.
Playing the two dogs on the usual Friday night Golden Boy card on Estrella TV. With lopsided odds like these, I figure I could lose twenty or thirty times in a row and still make money when a big dog finally comes in.
Ruben Garcia (+4000) vs Randy Caballero $10.00 for $400.00
Silverio Ortiz (+1400) vs Frankie Gomez $10.00 for $140.00
Ruben Garcia (+4000) vs Randy Caballero $10.00 for $400.00
Silverio Ortiz (+1400) vs Frankie Gomez $10.00 for $140.00
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Very rare for a +1000 or more favourite to win in boxing, though. In fights priced like that the dog is absolutely supposed to lose, a matchmaker has picked them out for that purpose. You are pretty much hoping for a shock KO (only works if the dog has a punch), a freak injury, or the favourite to have hopelessly undertrained.
Probably the best situation is with heavyweights where they can all punch a bit. I had Szpilka small against Wilder and he put in a good effort, Whyte versus Joshua did okay too (I played the over in that one, at +100 for o2.5 rounds).
But if you take last week, no way in hell am I betting Pascal against Kovalev...he landed his big shots in the first fight and barely phased Sergey...he had no clear route to victory.
If you are just betting for fun/interest go ahead but I don't this is a good long-term strategy to just bet any big dog. BOL, though, would love Caballero to lose!
Probably the best situation is with heavyweights where they can all punch a bit. I had Szpilka small against Wilder and he put in a good effort, Whyte versus Joshua did okay too (I played the over in that one, at +100 for o2.5 rounds).
But if you take last week, no way in hell am I betting Pascal against Kovalev...he landed his big shots in the first fight and barely phased Sergey...he had no clear route to victory.
If you are just betting for fun/interest go ahead but I don't this is a good long-term strategy to just bet any big dog. BOL, though, would love Caballero to lose!
Entertaining myself with Toe-to-Toe Tuesdays on FS1. The more experienced Colombian underdog is significantly taller and has a lot more knockouts than the undefeated American prospect he faces. He'll probably lose a UD, but I'm hoping for an upset KO.
Luis Eduardo Flores (+650) vs Jamel Herring $40.00 for $260.00
Luis Eduardo Flores (+650) vs Jamel Herring $40.00 for $260.00
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Was gonna play the over and then a tiny bet on Flores but 5d took the line down.
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If Charles Martin versus Anthony Joshua gets made, I'll play Martin as the heavy dog, currently 9/2 +450 with Paddy Power's speculative market but I think you'll see better.
Talking of dogs in that price-range, I am on Nick Blackwell versus Chris Eubank Jr. at a best price of 53/10 +530 but now there's more lines the fight goes the distance prop at 11/5 +220 is maybe the better bet. There's little to suggest either of those guys goes down easily. Eubank is an exciting fighter but right now both he and his power are overrated, I think.
Talking of dogs in that price-range, I am on Nick Blackwell versus Chris Eubank Jr. at a best price of 53/10 +530 but now there's more lines the fight goes the distance prop at 11/5 +220 is maybe the better bet. There's little to suggest either of those guys goes down easily. Eubank is an exciting fighter but right now both he and his power are overrated, I think.
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Any leans on Frampton Quigg?
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Charles Martin now 11/2 +550 versus Anthony Joshua and the fight is confirmed. Martin needs to survive the first three rounds when Joshua is a beast, fast and powerful, but if he survives that Joshua will slow down and I think is beatable. Martin is a southpaw as well, could be tricky.
5Dimes still has Dereck Chisora at +900 vs Anthony Joshua listed for April 9th. Is Martin a replacement opponent on that same card?
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Chisora fight not happening. Martin is confirmed.
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Martin's not bad but he's gonna have his hands full with Joshua. Getting close to 6-1 is tempting but I don't know if he can pull this off. Joshua showed some growing pains in his last fight but I still think hes on his way to becoming a premier hw. It can be argued Joshua's level of comp has been low and Martin will be a step up but remember Glazkov blew his knee out in the Martin fight fight so we really haven't seen Martin in there with anyone special either.
Martin might give him some problems but I think Joshua takes care of him w/o too much trouble. That being said if the price starts to get crazy high on Martin, then I'll look to take a stab. Like I said he's not terrible, he's got an outside chance, but Joshua is looking like something special in the making.
Martin might give him some problems but I think Joshua takes care of him w/o too much trouble. That being said if the price starts to get crazy high on Martin, then I'll look to take a stab. Like I said he's not terrible, he's got an outside chance, but Joshua is looking like something special in the making.
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Edwin Rodriguez 8/15 -187 versus Thomas Williams Jr is a great line with Paddy Power. Williams has a puncher's chance early but Rodriguez isn't chinny (has only lost to Andre Ward by decision) and Williams has dubious stamina and chin.
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I also really like Brian Rose -110 with Bet365 (draw voids the bet) against Matthew Macklin, middleweight fight,
Rose is something of a mediocrity but he is a solid boxer who will have a reach advantage and his jab is good enough to utilise that. His KO1 defeat to Carson Jones was a shocking stoppage by the ref and can be ignored. Macklin doesn't have Jones' pop anyway.
Macklin was better than Rose in his prime but is washed-up at 33 having been competing in tough fights since 2006, last competing at the top level in 2013 when he got blitzed by GGG. Next he looked laboured in a fight vs. Lamar Russ (who?) in which he dropped rounds. He got KOd in a 'homecoming' fight in Ireland in late 2014 that he was absolutely supposed to win against an Argentinian with 4 defeats and 2 draws on his record, Jorge Heiland, who had never really beaten a world-ranked opponent. Macklin probably should have retired after that.
Then in October, Macklin had a competitive fight with Jason Welborn (winning by 6 rounds to 4 on two judges' cards) - Welborn has twice been KOd competing for the British title (which he has never even won), one of those coming against Frankie Gavin, a non-puncher, at welterweight. In his prime, Macklin would have taken Welborn out inside 6 rounds, maybe 3. For the fight Macklin moved back down to light-middleweight, which may have been a mistake, and could look better back at middleweight.
Even so, Macklin is pure fade material and Rose has enough in his locker to win fairly comfortably. Rose by decision will also be a good play when the props become available.
Rose is something of a mediocrity but he is a solid boxer who will have a reach advantage and his jab is good enough to utilise that. His KO1 defeat to Carson Jones was a shocking stoppage by the ref and can be ignored. Macklin doesn't have Jones' pop anyway.
Macklin was better than Rose in his prime but is washed-up at 33 having been competing in tough fights since 2006, last competing at the top level in 2013 when he got blitzed by GGG. Next he looked laboured in a fight vs. Lamar Russ (who?) in which he dropped rounds. He got KOd in a 'homecoming' fight in Ireland in late 2014 that he was absolutely supposed to win against an Argentinian with 4 defeats and 2 draws on his record, Jorge Heiland, who had never really beaten a world-ranked opponent. Macklin probably should have retired after that.
Then in October, Macklin had a competitive fight with Jason Welborn (winning by 6 rounds to 4 on two judges' cards) - Welborn has twice been KOd competing for the British title (which he has never even won), one of those coming against Frankie Gavin, a non-puncher, at welterweight. In his prime, Macklin would have taken Welborn out inside 6 rounds, maybe 3. For the fight Macklin moved back down to light-middleweight, which may have been a mistake, and could look better back at middleweight.
Even so, Macklin is pure fade material and Rose has enough in his locker to win fairly comfortably. Rose by decision will also be a good play when the props become available.
bruthead, I appreciate the tips. It would also be helpful if you posted a date at least and possibly card or place to watch if you knew. I googled these fights to get an idea when they would take place and when odds might drop for the rest of us: Looks like the Rodriguez vs Williams Jr bout takes place on March 12th on the undercard of the Thurman/Porter main event on CBS or associated network and the Rose vs Macklin bout will take place on April 9th on the undercard of the Martin/Joshua main event on Sky PPV in the UK and maybe broadcast elsewhere. I recall seeing some of these fighters before, but I'll have to look these over when my mind isn't scrambled from seven hours of watching the UFC.
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Yes, Rodriguez is March 12th in Connecticut, Rose is April 9th in London.
Lucky I didn't post my main boxing bet from this weekend, Fedor Chudinov points over Felix Sturm which opened 6/4 +150. Most scored it around 116-112 for Chud (some even 118-110) but Sturm got a majority decision at home in Germany (114-114, 113-115, 113-115). Just when Germany was beginning to improve its rep for decisions (especially with Fury beating Wlad) out comes a straight robbery.
Lucky I didn't post my main boxing bet from this weekend, Fedor Chudinov points over Felix Sturm which opened 6/4 +150. Most scored it around 116-112 for Chud (some even 118-110) but Sturm got a majority decision at home in Germany (114-114, 113-115, 113-115). Just when Germany was beginning to improve its rep for decisions (especially with Fury beating Wlad) out comes a straight robbery.
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