General MMA discussion and future lines - March 2016
- Thread starter Sham5916910
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Did Soriano lose? I had an itch for some action smh lol
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I tailed both your initial picks so 2-0. Ty
Good man.
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nice maxed that for the small amount im allowed with them, I can easily see nate becoming the favorite, these odds simple don't reflect what happened in the first fight and certainly aren't taking into account diaz not having a camp.
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my unprofessional opinion:
Vitor:
the consensus for vitor backers seems to bet vitor by ko @4.73, or maybe vitor wins in first round @6.75. (yes, prop bet i know, limited $$$)
I'm taking Jacare ML, 5 units, waiting for the line to hit ~1.40. Don't like Vitor's chances in this fight, yes he looked substantially better in the Hendo 3 fight, than the Weidman fight, and VB in Brazil is a tall order for anyone.
But Jacare has had 6 months to prepare for the lhk and the 1.round blitz, I see Jacare taking him down within 1.5 rounds and getting a tko finish from the mount ala Weidman, or a rnc.
But yes, there is definitively value in a vitor bet, VB wins this fight 1 out of 3 times imo.
(betonline has vitor ML @3.85)
DC:
I would wait this one out, u can get DC for much better odds than that. (what bookie are u using?)
Dc seems to be extremly hungry, and has probably done absolutely extreme amounts of training/preperation .
tbh Cormier is 37 yo, JJ is 28 yo, add that to JJ's advantages in the standup, reach, fight-iq, length, mental,
then I don't see how DC wins this fight.
Unless JJ takes rounds off, is very sloppy, or his cardio fails him.
DC has added little to his mma-game over the years, it's basically the same: box,clinch, uppercut, press against the fence,get the high-crotch tkd, if it's there. That won't work against Jones.
I wouldn't bet Cormier, at least with those odds. GL!
Vitor:
the consensus for vitor backers seems to bet vitor by ko @4.73, or maybe vitor wins in first round @6.75. (yes, prop bet i know, limited $$$)
I'm taking Jacare ML, 5 units, waiting for the line to hit ~1.40. Don't like Vitor's chances in this fight, yes he looked substantially better in the Hendo 3 fight, than the Weidman fight, and VB in Brazil is a tall order for anyone.
But Jacare has had 6 months to prepare for the lhk and the 1.round blitz, I see Jacare taking him down within 1.5 rounds and getting a tko finish from the mount ala Weidman, or a rnc.
But yes, there is definitively value in a vitor bet, VB wins this fight 1 out of 3 times imo.
(betonline has vitor ML @3.85)
DC:
I would wait this one out, u can get DC for much better odds than that. (what bookie are u using?)
Dc seems to be extremly hungry, and has probably done absolutely extreme amounts of training/preperation .
tbh Cormier is 37 yo, JJ is 28 yo, add that to JJ's advantages in the standup, reach, fight-iq, length, mental,
then I don't see how DC wins this fight.
Unless JJ takes rounds off, is very sloppy, or his cardio fails him.
DC has added little to his mma-game over the years, it's basically the same: box,clinch, uppercut, press against the fence,get the high-crotch tkd, if it's there. That won't work against Jones.
I wouldn't bet Cormier, at least with those odds. GL!
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Send me a PM and I'll steer you in the right direction. You follow my advice and tips and I guarantee you will be following the yellow brick road to long term profits. What I don't guarantee is you becoming rich instantly because anybody telling you that you can become rich by sports betting is likely a fake tout, scammer or newbie.
As for your question about odds you absolutely positively want to be betting dogs because this is where in most cases you find the V-word. VALUE is the single most important term you need to focus on with sports betting. Nothing else really compares, sure you also need to know important terms like +EV, bankroll management, ROI, etc.. But this is a cruel industry and the bookies are notorious for chewing and spitting out uninformed and clueless newbies.
PS. I like your Jacare pick but don't bother with Cormier. There's no value with him if you delve into the deeper metrics, which I have already done.
- Barry
As for your question about odds you absolutely positively want to be betting dogs because this is where in most cases you find the V-word. VALUE is the single most important term you need to focus on with sports betting. Nothing else really compares, sure you also need to know important terms like +EV, bankroll management, ROI, etc.. But this is a cruel industry and the bookies are notorious for chewing and spitting out uninformed and clueless newbies.
PS. I like your Jacare pick but don't bother with Cormier. There's no value with him if you delve into the deeper metrics, which I have already done.
- Barry
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MM unan dec + JJ unan dec £100 @ +725 Ladbrokes.
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MM + JJ + Maia + Souza + WB + Cruz unan dec + Glover + Reem £50 @ +2700
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Nice, tailed. You can also add Cruz UD for 18.8/1 or +1880.
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Yeah i thought about that but didnt want to be greedy. Might add that for a smaller amount.
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Awesome price. Posted liking this parlay at +647 on 5d back on page 17 itt. Like your price better!
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I know i got the idea from you. Cheers!
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Faber is at +425 on 5D right now.
Don't know why it is that high.
I'm going with a low to medium bet on Faber. I think this line is going down as the fight gets closer.
Thoughts?
Don't know why it is that high.
I'm going with a low to medium bet on Faber. I think this line is going down as the fight gets closer.
Thoughts?
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FYI Shotcy-
Barrygood1 is on record in these threads as backing Cain -500 or so vs Werdum (Cain was a LOCK) and then blamed the elevation for his loss. He was also on record as backing Rousey as can't miss vs Holly at -1200 or whatever LOL (not sure if he made excuses for that one or not). His most recent "lock" was Conor vs Nate in which he recommended using Conor as the base for parlays as Conor "couldn't lose". This was after Barry tried to lecture everyone about parlays being bad bets. He then followed it up with something like "but in this case using Conor adds some value to your other bets so add him in some parlays".
So Barrygood1 who "loves to find value in the dogs!" is on record on this forum of backing 3 of the biggest favorites in high profile fights we've seen in the last year or so, all losers. I'm not going to tell you what to do, but I'd ignore Barry if I were you. He didn't even read your post correctly for crying out loud! You were thinking of betting Vitor and he responds with "I like your Jacare pick"??? There's a ton of good cappers here and just reading through these threads will give you a ton of great info. Barry isn't one of them.
For the record I'm betting Jacare itd and by sub. Vitor's tdd isn't good enough to keep it standing, and he'll be overmatched on the mat. My hedge is Vitor rd 1 at +650. If Vitor wins, it is most likely by very early stoppage. I'm also on Jones by dec. There's not much that makes me think the rematch will look much different than the first fight. Jones is just the younger, better fighter.
Barrygood1 is on record in these threads as backing Cain -500 or so vs Werdum (Cain was a LOCK) and then blamed the elevation for his loss. He was also on record as backing Rousey as can't miss vs Holly at -1200 or whatever LOL (not sure if he made excuses for that one or not). His most recent "lock" was Conor vs Nate in which he recommended using Conor as the base for parlays as Conor "couldn't lose". This was after Barry tried to lecture everyone about parlays being bad bets. He then followed it up with something like "but in this case using Conor adds some value to your other bets so add him in some parlays".
So Barrygood1 who "loves to find value in the dogs!" is on record on this forum of backing 3 of the biggest favorites in high profile fights we've seen in the last year or so, all losers. I'm not going to tell you what to do, but I'd ignore Barry if I were you. He didn't even read your post correctly for crying out loud! You were thinking of betting Vitor and he responds with "I like your Jacare pick"??? There's a ton of good cappers here and just reading through these threads will give you a ton of great info. Barry isn't one of them.
For the record I'm betting Jacare itd and by sub. Vitor's tdd isn't good enough to keep it standing, and he'll be overmatched on the mat. My hedge is Vitor rd 1 at +650. If Vitor wins, it is most likely by very early stoppage. I'm also on Jones by dec. There's not much that makes me think the rematch will look much different than the first fight. Jones is just the younger, better fighter.
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