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General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jan 1, 2020.

  1. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    That Hooker fight wasn't low key at all. Dustin got busted the fuck up the first half of that fight. He showed great heart and cardio and won because of it which I think has people maybe forgetting just how much he was getting wrecked.

    When a guy flat admits that if his opponent had another 20 or 30 seconds he likely would have gotten finished, you know he was badly hurt. And Dustin straight said that. I love Dustin for his honesty, heart, toughness, and for just being seemingly a good human being. But...the guy has been in some wars and he's slowing down a bit.

    Maybe he survives the early sharpness of Conor and drags him into deep waters...but man I wouldn't count on it. Live bet seems the safer play and it's not like you'll get worse odds if Conor looks great early but Dustin is hanging in there.
     
  2. Red_2 Orange Belt

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    50/50? Lmao. Casual.
     
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  3. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    That's an incredible leap of logic based on precious little, and while I'm not surprised to see it from other posters, I'm surprised you're buying into this narrative.

    What evidence is there that Dustin is "slowing down" in any manner? He's 31 years old and I haven't seen any drop in performance recently. In fact, 3 fights and 1.5 years ago, his win over Holloway was the finest of his entire career.

    Now, after a loss to Khabib where he took very little damage and that amazing fight against Hooker, who looked INSANELY good for the first 2 rounds, he's past his prime? So from the absolute pinnacle of his career to noticeably past his prime in 1.5 years, all at the ripe old age of 31? Yeah, I'm not buying it.

    I don't even think Poirier has taken as much damage as people think.

    In the past 3 years, he has only fought 5 times. 3 of those featured little to moderate damage (Alvarez, Holloway, Khabib) and 2 were brutal wars that he nevertheless won (Gaethje, Hooker). That's simply not the degree of damage where we start talking about a guy being badly affected by them.

    Recall the same narrative about Gaethje after he lost to Poirier and was about to face Vick and was even money, who had sustained more cumulative damage.
     
    danareem likes this.
  4. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    Poirier didn't look his best in his fight against Dan Hooker. He was returning from a layoff due to hip surgery, which he got in October 2019.

    Poirier over Hooker was my second largest bet of 2020, and while I thought it was a close fight, I thought Poirier might've lost (1 of the rounds was close, and I assumed the judges would side with Hooker). I was surprised and happy af when Poirier got the decision win.

    Poirier has improved since his first fight against Conor, which was at 145 pounds. That being said, even though he has improved, he still gets hit a lot, which will leave plenty of chances for Conor (a superior counter striker) to land on him.

    If I were to give Poirier a piece of advice, I would recommend the use of calf kicks against Conor, as it will keep Poirier at a far enough distance not to get owned with a counter, and Conor's striking stance is open to them.
     
  5. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    great points and I will agree w the hooker analysis I put down $4000 on poirer in that fight and frankly I almost crapt my pants the way Hooker was tagging him and the end of the second round was ohhh my. Not sure he can take that kind of punishment from mcgregor if he’s going to use that same strategy. I feel very fortunate that he was able to survive and that Hooker just blew his load and poirier won the war of attrition
     
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  6. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Pleasantly surprised to see the Yan vs Sterling reposted with Sterling +142. I did not hesitate to pound that line. I’m thinking Sterling should be favorited or be a slight dog at the very worst.
     
  7. svmr_db Purple Belt

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    What do you guys think the odds for Volkanovski vs Holloway 3 would be, assuming Volkanovski gets through Ortega? I think it'd be very close, maybe Volkanovski as a small favorite, considering both Max's performance vs Kattar & also the controversial split decision from Volkanovski / Holloway 2.

    For reference:

    Volk (+150) vs Holloway (-200) first fight
    Volk (-210) vs Holloway (+170) second fight
     
  8. Broe. Brown Belt

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    Pickem odds. Also depends on how ortega volk will look of course
     
  9. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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  10. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    Yeah, I have. I've been following the updates about his health closely and even posted in the Sherdog topic a few days ago where his friend announced he wouldn't make it through the night.

    Very sad. RIP Paul "Polar Bear" Varelans.
     
  11. svmr_db Purple Belt

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  12. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    Anyone else really like Askarov at even money against Benavidez?
     
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  13. UrG00d Yellow Belt

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    Poirier reads Sherdog confirmed.
     
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  14. theTKDguy Red Belt

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    weidman vs hall u2.5 at evens i like. i see a rather quick finish either way.
     
  15. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    I made the mistake of only taking O1.5 rounds in that fight. My brain was so focused on that outcome, that I forgot to put the obvious money on Poirier ML. Oh well.
     
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  16. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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  17. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    I don't understand what the big deal is. Yan talks to a homeless guy. And? He doesn't insult him or say anything bad, just calls him "Aljo" a few times.

    Is there some rule that says you're not allowed to speak with the homeless?
     
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  18. svmr_db Purple Belt

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    This is totally the wrong thread for that Yan post anyways lol, doesn't belong here.
     
  19. WolfgangKennelz Yellow Belt

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    Yes. Incredible value. Askarov dominates that fight. I've loaded up
    Also, I love Danny Chavez over Jared Gordon got him at +120 +110 odds and I think he's still even

    And for anyone that bets boxing or want to tail me (I crush it in boxing) juan Francisco Estrada is still only -150 on betonline over chocolatito on March 13. Estrada WILL DOMINATE this fight. Will NOT be competitive
     

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  20. BigSteve Green Belt

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    how does he dominate? Benevidez has always done great against grapplers and has great wrestling and legendary scrambles
     
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