Official UFC 197 Thread

[EzFlyer]

I do as well. His striking did look awfully green against green Matthews.

Franca looks weak though. As khabib says. Vick will smash him

wait, what did i miss? franca weak!? he's a gargantuan 155'er who looks plenty strong to me

 

[Joseph Budden]

wait, what did i miss? franca weak!? he's a gargantuan 155'er who looks plenty strong to me

lol maybe he meant weak skills wise? Idk but yeah, Franca is huge

The lines for this fight gonna determine how I play it. I want Vick, but at close odds. Otherwise, Glaico by decision.

 

[EzFlyer]

lol maybe he meant weak skills wise? Idk but yeah, Franca is huge

The lines for this fight gonna determine how I play it. I want Vick, but at close odds. Otherwise, Glaico by decision.

he's definitely not weak, period. i think people might sleep on him here. if he can take vick down, could easily win w/positional grappling

 

[Oblivian]

Pettis was supposed to be more aggressive in his fight against Alvarez, since he was coming off of an embarrassing loss, yet he lost a split-decision due to inactivity on the feet against a guy who gave him plenty of opportunity to strike in-between the wall-and-stall.

Also, what type of aggression do you expect from Pettis? He's known as a kicker because his hands aren't good. It's unlikely he gets a take down to usehis superior BJJ skills. So then we have a kicking battle, where Barboza kicks a lot more, he kicks harder, and he kicks faster, and he also has heavier hands and faster hand speed.

If I had to choose, I'd take o2.5 at +100.

Pettis isn't aggressive as in "let's just come forward and throw", but he certainly is aggressive. Dating back to his WEC days, he has 10 wins and 8 of them are by finish. Some of these finishes are against top guys as well. With the exception of his Bart P. loss in the early WEC days, his decision losses are to grapplers who smother him.

If you have the two throwing from across the cage, I think there is a good chance someone falls. If it does hit the ground, Pettis should be able to finish. It's similar to when Cerrone fought Barboza.

 

[EzFlyer]

I can get Barboza decision +290. What can you guys get?

think my play is +300.. only play on the fight so far

 

[LEMONZEST]

OSP/JJ

I want to recap my thoughts on OSP/JJ here as I think OSP is still overrated right now. Lets look at who OSP has actually beatan.

Feijao - There is not much to say here. I am not sure what the deal with Feijao was but he was perhaps the most inactive I have ever seen a fighter. Very easy win for an injured OSP as Feijao was at the tail end of his career and offered no real danger.

Shogun - This fight was kind of a fluke. Shogun slipped and fell down and then OSP quickly finished him in the first min. This win requires an asterisk. EDIT...this was a legit KO...

Jimmo - OSP won because Jimmo broke his arm. Very competitive fight and not really clear how Jimmo broke his arm.

Krylov - This was a legit win by OSP very nice Von Flue choke.

Gian Villante - This was the biggest joke. Gian got poked in the eye and the ref stopped the fight. Gian was on his way to win this fight. I would go as far to say this fight doesn't even count.

Conclusion: OSP has some dangerous kicks to the body if they connect. His head kicks and leg kicks are really just there for show and he doesn't throw them with conviction.

OSP's primary skill is covering distance fast while throwing wild punches. OSP needs a r1 KO or he is done.

OSP has serious gas tank issues and has nothing left by round 3. I think all the fights I watched OSP is flat footed and basically stops doing anything by the start of the 3rd round.

JJ is cautious and I don't think he will go for the finish during rounds 1 and 2. JJ will let OSP blow his load in rounds 1 and 2 and then rounds 3-5 will be all JJ. I anticipate JJ will pick him apart in rounds 1 and 2 and keep him at distance with kicks. Biggest factor in this fight will be Jon's kicks as OSP does not close the distance with technical skill.

I like the JJ decision price but I think right now JJ has a lot to prove with being out and he needs a finish under his belt. At the same time come round 4 OSP will be so gassed a finish will be literally easy for JJ.

My official prediction is JJ ITD (rounds 3-5)

 

[Oblivian]

OSP/JJ

I want to recap my thoughts on OSP/JJ here as I think OSP is still overrated right now. Lets look at who OSP has actually beatan.

Feijao - There is not much to say here. I am not sure what the deal with Feijao was but he was perhaps the most inactive I have ever seen a fighter. Very easy win for an injured OSP as Feijao was at the tail end of his career and offered no real danger.

Shogun - This fight was kind of a fluke. Shogun slipped and fell down and then OSP quickly finished him in the first min. This win requires an asterisk.

Jimmo - OSP won because Jimmo broke his arm. Very competitive fight and not really clear how Jimmo broke his arm.

Krylov - This was a legit win by OSP very nice Von Flue choke.

Gian Villante - This was the biggest joke. Gian got poked in the eye and the ref stopped the fight. Gian was on his way to win this fight. I would go as far to say this fight doesn't even count.

Conclusion: OSP has some dangerous kicks to the body if they connect. His head kicks and leg kicks are really just there for show and he doesn't throw them with conviction.

OSP's primary skill is covering distance fast while throwing wild punches. OSP needs a r1 KO or he is done.

OSP has serious gas tank issues and has nothing left by round 3. I think all the fights I watched OSP is flat footed and basically stops doing anything by the start of the 3rd round.

JJ is cautious and I don't think he will go for the finish during rounds 1 and 2. JJ will let OSP blow his load in rounds 1 and 2 and then rounds 3-5 will be all JJ. I anticipate JJ will pick him apart in rounds 1 and 2 and keep him at distance with kicks. Biggest factor in this fight will be Jon's kicks as OSP does not close the distance with technical skill.

I like the JJ decision price but I think right now JJ has a lot to prove with being out and he needs a finish under his belt. At the same time come round 4 OSP will be so gassed a finish will be literally easy for JJ.

My official prediction is JJ ITD (rounds 3-5)

I agree with the bulk of your post, but the bold on Shogun/OSP is crazy. OSP countered Shogun coming in straight and sloppy.

 

[Joseph Budden]

he's definitely not weak, period. i think people might sleep on him here. if he can take vick down, could easily win w/positional grappling

Yeah this is a tough one. I like Glaico, but this is the first time i'm seeing him fight someone his size. That gives me reservations, but i'll have to rewatch his fight vs Motta from TUF Brazil. Been so long but I know Motta kept it standing for a bit, and hes a good striker, so if Glaico did well on the feet with him i'd feel more content playing Glaico.

Idk. Weird fight. All Vick fights give me a weird feeling.

 

[Joseph Budden]

@LEMONZEST Jimmo broke his arm blocking a left kick from OSP

I'm really intrigued by this fight. OSP has a style that i'd normally think could present some early problems for JJ, but short notice + JJ being GOAT makes it hard to see anything other than a JJ finish as soon as he closes distance and takes this to the mat. If i'm Greg Jackson, even with the crazy reach I wouldn't want Jones playing the range striking game here.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

lol maybe he meant weak skills wise? Idk but yeah, Franca is huge

The lines for this fight gonna determine how I play it. I want Vick, but at close odds. Otherwise, Glaico by decision.

I'd be careful with that. He got like 4 consecutive rear naked chokes during his TUF stint and he fights pretty aggresive.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I agree with the bulk of your post, but the bold on Shogun/OSP is crazy. OSP countered Shogun coming in straight and sloppy.

def could be. I thought I saw Shogun rush in and OSP just evade him and Shogun slipped and fell on his bum. OSP may have clipped him coming in which would be legit.

In any case more generally my point is that OSP's record is deceptive in that he has some wins that are questionable (Villiante) and others that are just plain ugly (take your pick).

OSP does have legit power but he telegraphs so much that JJ should easily stay out of danger.

@Joseph Budden word on the Jimmo fight thanks for the clarification.

I have tried really hard to like JJ because he is such a good fighter but he is a dickwad. I can't be a JJ fan. Having said that after watching tape on OSP I have cheer for JJ, OSP just doesn't deserve to win based on skills.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Fili got a neck tattoo

lol what a follower.

Fili - "Hey, Cody, that's such a sick neck tattoo. I'm going to get one, too, now!"

 

[Oblivian]

def could be. I thought I saw Shogun rush in and OSP just evade him and Shogun slipped and fell on his bum. OSP may have clipped him coming in which would be legit.

In any case more generally my point is that OSP's record is deceptive in that he has some wins that are questionable (Villiante) and others that are just plain ugly (take your pick).

OSP does have legit power but he telegraphs so much that JJ should easily stay out of danger.

@Joseph Budden word on the Jimmo fight thanks for the clarification.

I have tried really hard to like JJ because he is such a good fighter but he is a dickwad. I can't be a JJ fan. Having said that after watching tape on OSP I have cheer for JJ, OSP just doesn't deserve to win based on skills.

I don't know how to embed .gifs anymore, but he definitely caught his chin. If you search OSP vs Shogun .gif, you'll see it. He basically clips Shogun with a left hook while Shogun is going to throw a right. Shogun's momentum was in the same direction of the punch, so he falls awkwardly as hell and then gets pummeled.

 

[EzFlyer]

so i'm on barboza decision already. i'm probably gonna be playing barb straight, too.

...but

pettis no SC is -265. that is freakin value. i'm sorry, it is. he's never been finished. honestly, he's never been close to being finished. sure, barb COULD ko him, he's a hell of a striker, but it's super unlikely. on the other hand, barb has been dropped by some jabs etc in the past & pettis is an amazing finisher if he has you hurt.

i could end up in a spot where if barb finishes him, i don't make any $$ (cause i'll lose on pettis NSC and win on barb bets), but that's so unlikely. hopefully this -265 bet i'm making just pushes when barb wins the decision

 

[Deleted member 448575]

Jones by UD at 9.05.
I do expect a finish from Jones more often than not, but this line was too good to pass up.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I might just end up blind tailing you EZ when it comes to Barboza. I don't know how to bet him because his fights are always really competitive.

 

[EzFlyer]

I might just end up blind tailing you EZ when it comes to Barboza. I don't know how to bet him because his fights are always really competitive.

looking at a combo play of barb straight, barb dec, and pettis NSC. haven't bet the barb straight yet, tho, waiting for movement

 

[Kowboy Karl]

wait, what did i miss? franca weak!? he's a gargantuan 155'er who looks plenty strong to me

I watched him fight a munchkin on tuf and he looked like a monster compared to him and seemed to be having why to hard of a time bullying him.

But hey these guys fall into my no name category. Not a lot of info. So if I'm missing something I'm all Ears to what the truth is.

I had a great card this last one.

The bet thread got me switched on bambose who I was very high on betting a everyone said ponzibio was a lock and I bet him as well.

I love getting these no name fights right cuz they usually are around evens no more than -200. They really add the value on parlays where the locks like jones and Mighty Mouse on this card betting alone gets you nothing really.

 

[Sham5916910]

Barb dec +333 @ Paddy.

Im really starting to like Barb dec the more i think about it. Yes questions persist over his chin but he has protected it better in more recent fights. Both these guys are better with their legs than hands and i just think i favour Barb's speed here. MJ pushed Barb back and beat Barb with punches Pettis cannot replicate this and he sure as hell cannot take Barb down. So this could very well be a kicking battle with crazy spinning techniques thrown in. Advantage Barb IMO.

 

[Bork Lazer]

I don't know how to embed .gifs anymore, but he definitely caught his chin. If you search OSP vs Shogun .gif, you'll see it. He basically clips Shogun with a left hook while Shogun is going to throw a right. Shogun's momentum was in the same direction of the punch, so he falls awkwardly as hell and then gets pummeled.

Here ya go.



Or you could go with the conspiracy theorist as to what really happened...