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Official UFC on FOX 18 Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 5, 2016.

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  1. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I get peoples reservations if the fight goes late but I really do not expect it to. I questions Bader's chin. If Glover and Machida can knock you out AJ will take your head off. Tito also hurt him with a punch which led to the gulliotine. Bader's stand up has improved but the Davis fight could have gone either way and AJ demolished him. Evans hadn't fought for two years and didn't look great i don't read too much into that fight. I ever remember Perosh seemed to stun Bader standing. I see Bader being very tentative in this fight i don't think he has the game to pressure AJ and clinch, etc to wear him down. I think he gets sparked in r1 or 2.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2016
  2. letmebangbrah Green Belt

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    i know most gamblers tend to frown up parlays but what are everyone's thoughts on a rumble, saff, sage and rivera parlay. that seems like it would hit more likely than not. with the initial odds up not seeing much i like yet to bet singled.
     
  3. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i personally don't like it. maybe do it small, an accompanying bet, but bet your leans as they are if you see value
     
  4. ods White Belt

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    I've got a parlay with Saff, Sage, and AJ. Don't feel great about it and will most likely hedge a little bit.
     
  5. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I just "found" this thread now...
     
  6. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    After having a solid night yesterday, Jimmie Rivera is officially my biggest "at risk" bet to start the year. $1100 in my account and put down the 165 to win 100. Its not surprising in the least but still sucks his line has climbed, but waaayyyy too confident he'll win to not take that more than reasonable price.
     
  7. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    All the best with your parlay Sham as you have already placed it. Personally, I don't want to pay the juice SU on AJ. I am looking to play Bader small either r4/r5 and sub. I think we could potentially see Bader do what Eddie Alvarez did last night.

    2u on Tarec + Barnett
     
  8. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i'm on rivera, too, about 3u i think, basically -120ish net (cause i got 2u on a friend's account who can use unibet)
     
  9. wack3d Silver Belt

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    man these two weeks ufc breaks is killing me.. where is all the international events we used to get between the big cards.. at least we got a wsof event next week but the card looks very lackluster
     
  10. wack3d Silver Belt

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    anybody else like the under in the josh vs ben fight? both guys are durable but still combined they have only seen a dec 14 times out of 85 fights and both guys are up there in age..
     
  11. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Don't like it. Think Rothwell by KO and Barnett by sub are how it would end itd, and think both aren't crazy likely
     
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    same, o2.5 all the way. kinda love this line. +140!? i would think it'd be -140
     
  13. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    What do you guys think about Alcantara's performance against Faber? If Rivera was in the same bad spots Faber was in during Round 1, I don't think Rivera would survive.

    The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Rivera.
     
  14. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    alcantara is and always will be dangerous in rd 1. but rivera has impressed me soooo much in first two fights. and yea, he has it easily IMO after first.
     
  15. TimCoreCombat Green Belt

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    Did Oblivian start a new thread?
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Like EZ said Alcantara in round 1 is a tough dude to deal with but also based on recent fights I think he's hit a hard ceiling at best, and seems to be on the decline. On the other hand, Jimmie Rivera is a dude I've been following awhile and he is hitting his peak and living up to all the potential he's had since before his appearance on TUF. I'm not sure I could be anymore confident in this fight, I don't see anything yuri can do to win. He's not gonna outwrestle Jimmie and Jimmies scrambling is not to be underestimated, he's not gonna give an inch. Standing it's not gonna be hard for Jimmie to get in the pocket and put a hurting on yuri.
     
  17. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

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    Where is Sage training at? Tristar or with his pops?

    I think I'm going to bet Holbrook. I am very unimpressed with Sage and I think he can get tapped here. Holbrook fished for a bunch of chokes against Nijem and he was close on a couple of them too but Nijem was the stronger/seasoned grappler and he had the better conditioning.

    Sage got taken down by Pfister ffs. He laid on his back like a turtle I don't know what he was thinking. His striking to me isn't even good. I wish it were a better candidate to fight against Sage so I can really capitalize against the hype and make some money but it could end here with Holbrook.

    I think the UFC promoting the shit out of him will end up being a curse for him. Just like everyone else, I think he needs to pay his dues and not until he gets a few more years experience/losses will he be a solid fighter.

    But I'll probably bet on the Sage Not ITD +130 instead. Not a strong bet though I just plan to play it this way when the time comes.

    ~~~

    I have a pretty good idea of who I plan to put my money on this card. Waiting for the rest of the lines to open..
     
  18. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    this is the ufc on fox 18 thread
     
  19. asdf122345 Red Belt

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    Rumble would be the easiest pick. Easy money there.
     
  20. weedreference Green Belt

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    This one is a no bet for me at the moment, though I will be small on Alcantara if the line climbs...

    Rivera, based on his 2 UFC fights, seems like a boxer/sprawl and brawler, and so I think his matchups against grapplers thus far have really favored him. Alcantara, a technical south paw striker, doesn't lose unless his opponent lay and prays him; and Rivera hasn't displayed any offensive grappling yet. Generally opposite stance matchups favor the more diverse striker (i.e. what we just saw in the Trinaldo vs. Pearson), so, at least in a technical sense, I don't see it as a great matchup for Rivera.

    That said, due to low fight IQ, I see why Alcantara is the dog.
     
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