Official UFN 82** Thread

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EzFlyer said:
I like burkman-noons ITD -125
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Idk i'd want a better price to play it. Sure Burkman got finished by Cote, but that was the only time in his career hes been KOd and has otherwise been known for durability. Noons isn't a 'one shot kill' fighter either. If it ends, gotta believe its from Burkman ground and pound stoppage or gulliotine choke.
 
Hendricks has one finish outside of the first, so maaaybeee Hendricks round 1 +650 has value? WB known to get clipped from keeping hands low.

Hit OSP by sub +1100. Actually think this holds tremendous value.

Not really liking anything else. Maybe Lewis itd +196? eh, i'll hold off. Just hitting that OSP by sub or now. Sigh.

EDIT Ariel interviews up as well
 


This show doesn't get enough love. Conor Rubeusch called himself out for not having the best predictions to start the year, but on the flipside feel like these guys have been making some great picks.
 
Joseph Budden said:


This show doesn't get enough love. Conor Rubeusch called himself out for not having the best predictions to start the year, but on the flipside feel like these guys have been making some great picks.
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Cool I will check this out. I've been wondering which picks show/podcast to listen to.
 
Nelson by dec up to +995 now???!!!

I try not to play "long shot" props too big but this is ridiculous. I liked it at +850. If Rosholt is trying to grind out a decision and holding Roy against the cage but unable to take him down and Roy is still working and landing anything we could see a close decision. I think people are too married to the fact that if Roy wins it HAS to be because he lands a bomb. Yeah, it's his most likely path for sure but +995 for dec?

Borg itd is +179. I'm big on the over and thought about this as my hedge but gonna hold out for Borg by sub and hope there's juicier odds on that. Might be a mistake if there's not much difference and this one gets bet down but I'll risk it.
 
man, i hate when they release these props and lines at such random times, impossible to predict :( (i get it, that's prolly part of the idea)

"osp sub +1100? yea i'm in!" ..."this price has changed to +645"

wtf!? goddamnit
 
EzFlyer said:
man, i hate when they release these props and lines at such random times, impossible to predict :( (i get it, that's prolly part of the idea)

"osp sub +1100? yea i'm in!" ..."this price has changed to +645"

wtf!? goddamnit
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Not surprised it dropped so quick, was thinking to myself just now I should add more. Amazing price.
 
grabowski DEC +515, NOT grabowski ITD -141 are both interesting to me
 
sean "pillow fists" spencer got two tko's in his first two pro fights. he's 10-4 since then. 0 ko's. and he's a striker.

NOT spencer ITD -260...

i'm aware pyle's been ko'd 4 times in the ufc. but that's a prime ellenberger, matt brown, rory macdonald, and recently jordan mein. all have way more power than spencer. waaay more.

and pyle's fought lots of other good guys.

spencer decision +185 is fine, i guess, as a possible alternative
 
mkess101 said:
Nelson by dec up to +995 now???!!!

I try not to play "long shot" props too big but this is ridiculous. I liked it at +850. If Rosholt is trying to grind out a decision and holding Roy against the cage but unable to take him down and Roy is still working and landing anything we could see a close decision. I think people are too married to the fact that if Roy wins it HAS to be because he lands a bomb. Yeah, it's his most likely path for sure but +995 for dec?

Borg itd is +179. I'm big on the over and thought about this as my hedge but gonna hold out for Borg by sub and hope there's juicier odds on that. Might be a mistake if there's not much difference and this one gets bet down but I'll risk it.
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nelson decision +995 is kinda bizarre for a favorite in a 3 round fight.

don't get me wrong. i get it. i am well aware of the styles at play here. also know that nelson has 1 win post round 1 since 2007 (cro cop rd 3).

just think it's odd.
 
LOL f this.

Nelson by dec + Wonderboy by dec +6800.

Yep. .1u.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Idk i'd want a better price to play it. Sure Burkman got finished by Cote, but that was the only time in his career hes been KOd and has otherwise been known for durability. Noons isn't a 'one shot kill' fighter either. If it ends, gotta believe its from Burkman ground and pound stoppage or gulliotine choke.
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i think he has a reckless style (burkman) and noons seems like he's kinda on the way out. also we've seen lots of vets with "no ko losses" who finally get ko'd, and then they start coming, and noons CAN pop him
 
EzFlyer said:
nelson decision +995 is kinda bizarre for a favorite in a 3 round fight.

don't get me wrong. i get it. i am well aware of the styles at play here. also know that nelson has 1 win post round 1 since 2007 (cro cop rd 3).

just think it's odd.
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It is, but I think there's a couple factors that make me love this play at these odds:

First, look at who Nelson has fought. He's literally been fighting the elite guys of the HW division. He's lost a bunch of fights but to top tier guys, which Rosholt is not.

Second, the guys he has beaten he's KO'd yes. But I can't recall any of them being mid tier HW's who want a grinding, clinching type fight. I think Rosholt's style makes it MORE likely Nelson maybe wins a close decision. Like I said if Rosholt is pushing Roy against the cage and not giving Roy distance it could nullify Roy's big right hand. But if Roy is able to show decent tdd and Rosholt can't get him down, the second half of the fight could look like Hendricks/Lawler where Rosholt is burying his head in Roy's crotch (wow, gross) but doing nothing and the judges favor Roy at least trying to throw some strikes.

It's still unlikely to happen so obviously can't go nuts but the line is just way off imo.
 
I'm probably reading into this too much..but I didn't give Mike Jackson a chance, considering he's not a full-time fighter, doesn't seem to have a ground game and is going up against a brown belt. But anyone else feel like after watching those interviews with Ariel that Mickey Gall seems nervous as hell? Well he admitted it but both guys are aware all the pressure is on Gall. Jackson seems pretty confident, and at their stare down Mickey looked away from his eyes, looking downward. The kid seems to be feeling it. Things might get interesting.
 
FutureGOAT said:
I'm probably reading into this too much..but I didn't give Mike Jackson a chance, considering he's not a full-time fighter, doesn't seem to have a ground game and is going up against a brown belt. But anyone else feel like after watching those interviews with Ariel that Mickey Gall seems nervous as hell? Well he admitted it but both guys are aware all the pressure is on Gall. Jackson seems pretty confident, and at their stare down Mickey looked away from his eyes, looking downward. The kid seems to be feeling it. Things might get interesting.
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From a betting perspective, I can't see whey anyone would even seriously be looking at this fight. A guy whoo's 1-0 (with the win coming over another guy making his debut) against a guy who's never fought and you have the guy who **should** win at -600 LOL? Maybe .2u on the dog for action or something but otherwise no way.
 
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