Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 8, 2016.
Just put a couple units on the over at -190.
Something to consider is Leites KO currently at +1185
He's been pretty inactive the last couple years too, but his best win is way better than parke's imo, and I think he still trains at jackson's which is a confidence boost for me, he's got good potential still, I hope he's been taking notes on how fast the sport is changing while he's been out.
I like khabilov and moose, maybe add machida/mightymouse in their too, I'm much more excited for this card than last nights, I can't put any more on breese, don't want to put too much on a heavy fav while he's still pretty raw. and his price won't add that much value.
yeah that price was at coral it was 1.44 I just used a converter to get the US odd as I can't do it myself, and it told me -227 lol.
I actually prefer his SUB line over KO, but I doubt either hit
We have had a few bookies whill, b365 etc not even having live bet available for UK events, its no guarantee, we will have it but best to check the calendar on the same day it starts. US event and its fine, unibet standard lb for prelims.
Its making me think about parlays early sadly...
khabilov is another bet that makes absolute sense. he should be better than parke everywhere. still, something in my gut gives me apprehension.
i'm definitely playing breese and mouse. khabilov vs allen for the last spot in my parlay. will decide after watching tape.
If you are gonna hedge the over 2.5 and Mousasi dec bets (I am a little) I think it's sort of foolish to try to guess how Leites finishes. He has big power but also a very nice bjj game. Instead of guessing I'm just playing the itd line at +574. Think it makes way more sense than trying to guess KO or sub, which are pretty equally likely to happen imo (and the odds reflect as much).
I don't even have anything on this fight yet. But I disagree with Leites KO and SUB being equally likely to happen. Before the Uriah Hall fight, Gegard was never KOed. It took an absolute donkey kick and flying knee from hell to put him away and he still wasn't fully out. Leites has shown some pop recently, but his BJJ is still his bread and butter. He has one of the best, if not the best, arm triangle chokes in the whole game. Gegard has been subbed 3 times, albeit only once recently to Jacare, but I still think he is more prone to losing by SUB than KO. With all that said, I think Leites most likely route to victory is a decision followed by SUB than TKO.
Fair enough. I agree with your order (dec, sub, ko/tko) but I think sub is only slightly more likely. Mousasi has a nice grappling game and as good as Leites is on the mat, he's not Jacare (and more importantly, he doesn't have Jacare's ability when it comes to getting the fight to the mat.) The odds also show sub being slightly more likely. I'm just playing it as a hedge, so I'd rather not get too greedy and just take the +574 itd as my hedge. I will add that getting blasted like that by Hall isn't going to make it less likely that Gegard can get wobbled, if anything it would make it more likely. In the end I think it's Gegard's fight to lose since he just has better footwork and boxing than Leites. I think he'll just outwork him from the outside over most of the 3 rounds.
Mousasi has 1 KO loss, to Hall by fluke of all flukes. He has one of the best chins in MMA imo. For god's sakes he's been in there with Mark Hunt.
Don't discount leites +3.5 as a possibile hedge.. You could still hit all bets with it (when the spreads go up)
Mousasi was the last standing chin in mma. I like the idea of the mythical fighter that can't lose or can't get ko'd. And I like Mousasi because he's Dutch, talented, and a nice guy, so that loss was pretty heart breaking to me.
I don't think he took a single hit from Hunt in that fight though. just played it smart and got it to the ground...
I'm looking at mostly favorites for this card I think most of them get it done.
The 2 dogs I think I might end up betting are Pickett and Parke. Norman though, may as well wait for Dec prop. I also think Wilkinson can win it against Amirkhani but he's not on my radar right now. I think Brad Scott is in that category too but I like the o2.5 rather on that fight. I'm gonna play Omielanczuk too I skimmed through some videos of Jarjis and wasn't impressed.
I don't really know everyone else yet.
Good point. If odds are good might hit that. Already have Leites itd but played it really small so I do have room for a bit more hedging given that the over 2.5 and Mousasi dec are gonna be my biggest plays on the card.
I probably should have waited until the first wave of props were released to play NOT DEC, but I'm playing Svensson/Teymur u2.5 -- .5u at +130
Teymur is vicious and tenacious with his stand up and Svensson is fairly hittable. Meanwhile, 4 out of 5 of Svensson's losses were finishes (2 KO) and more than half of his wins are by submission. Teymur has a suspect ground game
I also want to play Teymur if his odds get slightly better
Breese KO -135
Actually I think I might like the u1.5 -150 better. Also covers a u1.5 Breese SUB which is definitely possibly plus u1.5 Nakamura finish, Although it is unlikely
lol I like them both, though. Gonna play both
Hmmmm. Idk. Keita is tough and has heart, but surely will lose. You still have half of the fight for Breese to score a KO.
Gotta think about this one.
Pendred was basically in the same category and we all know how that went. Plus Nakamura is a lot older in fight years. Breese SUB u1.5 is not out of the question either, although not as likely as a KO. Plus Breese should be A LOT bigger than Nakamura. Breese is a huge WW
I gotta watch tape on Keita, but Pendred was notoriously chinny with the opportunity for someone skilled to kill him just lingering in everyone's face.
I agree with you on that, but Pendred was completely demolished. I need to watch more tape too but wasn't Li lighting up Nakamura on the feet? Anyway the KO line is already up to -170. You already missed the boat
Yeah thats why I say K-Taro is tough. Hasn't been KOd in years and he ate shots from a heavy puncher. Remember that fight being awesome but can't remember much more other than the "holy shit" comeback from K-Taro after getting smashed lol
-170 is still parlay fodder, but by the time I get around to putting it to work it'll prob be -220 - -250. Fuck it, rather refresh myself on some K-Taro than force a play i'm unsure about just cause I know the line will move.
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