Official UFN 85 Thread - Brisbane - Hunto vs Murrrr

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I feel like +100 is a decent price for Jouban/Oreilly O1.5. Jouban coming off a TKO loss and fighting away from home. Might put 0.5u on it.
 
Case vs Mathews and Magny vs Lombard Face-Offs

 
Case's suit reminds me of Cariaso's lol!

Yeah Mir looks pretty normal to me there.
 
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Agent Mulder said:
I feel like +100 is a decent price for Jouban/Oreilly O1.5. Jouban coming off a TKO loss and fighting away from home. Might put 0.5u on it.
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Would rather pay the extra juice and go with EZ on Not Jouban rd 1 at -140. You get the extra 2.5 minutes not to worry about plus are covered by O'reilly somehow stopping Jouban early.
 
barrygood1 said:
Please for the love of all that is sacred and holy STOP buying out of bets you made just because you see line movement go the opposite way. Hedging should only be used as a last resort emergency as it does nothing but decrease your long term +EV. If you're bandwagon jumping on consensus picks from the majority then I wouldn't consider you very $harp and you're most likely a recreational gambler. I might give more leeway to hedge live in-play betting but getting "cold feet" on a bet and buying out of your bet before the fight has even taken place is just terrible. Why both making the bet in the first place if you're not confident in your pick? I highly doubt more than 5 people in the sherdog betting threads are actually capping each fight. You only get out what you put in and trust me, it takes many hours of hard work capping.

One of the most important lessons I've learned from sports betting in general is to spot pick your plays. Only bet on fights where you have an edge and don't play more than 3-5 fights on a MMA card because most likely you'll only be able to extract value from a few of them. Not every fight, game, match has value. Sometimes I cringe when I see all the mistakes being made here because it just reinforces to me truly how much money the bookies are making from 98% of sport bettors.

- Barry
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A lot of us here bet fights early because we have a good feel of where the line will move on a specific fight and actually PLAN on hedging out later when our predictions are correct.

Barry, can you pinpoint the exact time it was when you started to believe that you were anything other than a punchline in these threads? I'm sort of wondering what life altering event took place with you that made you decide "Hell, I still suck at capping and betting but dammit I'm gonna go in there now and give advice and act like I'm an expert and even claim I'm a paid tout!"

You are a psychologists wet dream buddy.
 
barrygood1 said:
Please for the love of all that is sacred and holy STOP buying out of bets you made just because you see line movement go the opposite way. Hedging should only be used as a last resort emergency as it does nothing but decrease your long term +EV. If you're bandwagon jumping on consensus picks from the majority then I wouldn't consider you very $harp and you're most likely a recreational gambler. I might give more leeway to hedge live in-play betting but getting "cold feet" on a bet and buying out of your bet before the fight has even taken place is just terrible. Why both making the bet in the first place if you're not confident in your pick? I highly doubt more than 5 people in the sherdog betting threads are actually capping each fight. You only get out what you put in and trust me, it takes many hours of hard work capping.

One of the most important lessons I've learned from sports betting in general is to spot pick your plays. Only bet on fights where you have an edge and don't play more than 3-5 fights on a MMA card because most likely you'll only be able to extract value from a few of them. Not every fight, game, match has value. Sometimes I cringe when I see all the mistakes being made here because it just reinforces to me truly how much money the bookies are making from 98% of sport bettors.

- Barry
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You only bet 3-5 fights card?! And have lost juice on giant favorites like Conor, Ronda, Cain etc? Damn I can only imagine how much money you've lost gambling on mma

Maybe you should stop giving advice and take some?
 
mkess101 said:
Would rather pay the extra juice and go with EZ on Not Jouban rd 1 at -140. You get the extra 2.5 minutes not to worry about plus are covered by O'reilly somehow stopping Jouban early.
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Would love that line but it's not available on EU books :/
 
bet365 Jouban vs Walsh
O1.5@+100, in the distance @+175
lololololololololololololol
 
Is it me or does Lombard definitely look smaller?

I'm useless with IT - can anyone show me a pic of Lombard next to that one?
 
That pearson interview posted from few pages back about him getting punched by trinaldo not allowing him to get into his game plan, pearson sadly does that a lot as soon as a fighter with power + technique comes along his technical boxing goes out the window lol

I will be keeping an eye on those laprise decision lines early on during live betting, just depends on who is getting the better stand up going.
 
Brad Taschuk http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ufc-fight-night-85-main-card-betting-odds/

Case and Matthews seems like “show me” matchmaking by Joe Silva. Both guys looked impressive early in their UFC runs, but less so of late. Whoever wants to really be a prospect in the division moving forward needs to win this fight. I can see Matthews giving Case some trouble in spots with his strength and wrestling, but Case is the overall more talented fighter, and I expect him to pull out a decision or perhaps a late stoppage after wearing the young Aussie down a bit.

Dan Kelly has harnessed the power of having two first names, and parlayed it into a 3-1 UFC record. His level of competition has not been particularly impressive however, and Antonio Carlos Junior is a massive step up from anyone he’s faced. Carlos Junior has all the physical advantages in this fight, and aside from straight up Judo, probably all of the technical ones as well. I think this is just a matter of time before the Brazilian makes the hometown fans cringe.

Te Huna and Bosse will be over quick. Aside from that, it’s really the type of fight that screams “whoever lands first”. You have to assume Te Huna ends up landing that first shot, but I would in no way be comfortable betting it.

I’m still hoping that Rawlings’ popularity ends up making Ham the underdog in this fight. I feel like this is finally the fight where Ham’s massive size disadvantage isn’t a gulf too big for her to overcome. She’s a better striker than Rawlings by a significant amount, and I don’t think Rawlings wrestling game is going to be good enough to control Ham even with a moderate size advantage. It’ll most likely be tight, and that’s why I won’t lay any juice on this fight, but Ham is the pick.

Alan Jouban is going to be in a lot of parlays, and rightly so. His striking is well beyond O’Reilly, and I can’t picture the Aussie having any success trying to grapple with Jouban either. This is one of an increasing number of matches being made recently where the local fighter seems matched to lose.

The biggest factor setting Walsh and Andrade apart will be Walsh’s pace. Andrade has long spells of inactivity, and struggles to maintain through 15 minutes. Walsh isn’t the most technically gifted fighter out there, but neither is Andrade, and the cardio and effort reside with the local fighter.

Nakai/Smith is as weird as you would expect a Rin Nakai fight to be. She’s facing an undersized opponent whose best days are behind her, but aside from some rudimentary BJJ and pure strength, Nakai really doesn’t bring much to the table. Against Smith, that may be enough to secure the victory, but if she struggles at any point to get takedowns, Smith will be lighting her up on the feet and pushing her backwards constantly. I can’t bet this either way, since I can easily see either fighter’s style prevailing against their opponent, but have zero faith in both.

Daniel Hooker is very hittable, and Mark Eddiva was fairly successful in navigating the similar length of Kevin Souza two fights ago, but I still have to side with Hooker here. He’s just far more diverse on the feet than Eddiva, and I can’t see Eddiva getting this to the ground regularly enough to take a decision. If Eddiva was a better wrestler, I’d consider staying away from Hooker, but at the opening price I think the skill disparity is enough to warrant Hooker as a parlay leg.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Is it me or does Lombard definitely look smaller?

I'm useless with IT - can anyone show me a pic of Lombard next to that one?
Click to expand...

He looks smaller but take into consideration its probably from the weight cut, all these ufc fighters are cutting well ahead of schedule to make weight and loose fight money.

Lombards tree trunk leg stumps are gone in that above pic !

But id imagine by fight night once the water goes back in he should look different beast.

No idea on how he performs on fight night, but as we said 2 weeks back its a live betting fight to not miss.
 
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