Official UFN 86 Thread - Croatia: JDS vs Big Ben

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Dalby says he had to switch his camp to face a southpaw

 
^^^Good. Makes me more comfortable with my Dalby dec play. Dude struggled with Till, at least he learned he needs to make adjustments in camp for a southpaw.
 
@Soccer Steve

Bookmaker has way better limits than 5D. Curious about Heritage and Pinnacle too.
 
betstarts har rothwell ko/tko/dq +400 surprised the line is that high in 5 round hw fight
 
wack3d said:
betstarts har rothwell ko/tko/dq +400 surprised the line is that high in 5 round hw fight
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took that earlier small, definitely a decent price, JDS dec @ +800 too.
waiguoren said:
@Soccer Steve

Bookmaker has way better limits than 5D. Curious about Heritage and Pinnacle too.
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was heritage that book some ppl in here were talking about a while back? where you had to pay monthly membership and you could get high limits with multiple books or something, anybody remember what site that was come to think of it?
 
spreads and reduced juice are up

first 3 spreads i see that appeal to me (and i hit all 3):

blachowicz -3.5 -185
hadzovic +3.5 +160 (gonna play this guy straight, too, but smaller than the spread play)
johnson +3.5 -140 (tho i'm wondering if i should've done "NOT tybura ITD -179")
 
I just don't have a clue with this card, I've never lb before so might in this event and really need to boost my bankroll stupid bets this week have halved it.
 
RyuDave said:
I just don't have a clue with this card, I've never lb before so might in this event and really need to boost my bankroll stupid bets this week have halved it.
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Do it. Nearly every fight has close odds this is the perfect lb event. With bookies knowing nothing about most these fighters errors will be made.
 
Any thoughts on Asker/Cannonier and Statsiak/Pejic? I believe those are the only two that I haven't played.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Do it. Nearly every fight has close odds this is the perfect lb event. With bookies knowing nothing about most these fighters errors will be made.
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Ok cool, I defo will.. I looked at unibet as that's what you said you used.. Do you run an app on your phone etc for live bet Or web based on a pc?
 
RyuDave said:
Ok cool, I defo will.. I looked at unibet as that's what you said you used.. Do you run an app on your phone etc for live bet Or web based on a pc?
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I just access their website on my phone and watch the fights on my ipad or tv.
 
Oblivian said:
Any thoughts on Asker/Cannonier and Statsiak/Pejic? I believe those are the only two that I haven't played.
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I kinda got around to watching some footage on the fighters you mentioned.

My initial thoughts,

I think Cannonier is gonna win. The price ain't too bad -150. I think he's a solid early action play at -145 reduced odds. He's light on his feet and he moves well for a HW. I think he's got good fundamental boxing and he always keeps his hands up by his face. He's got decent grappling too so he's not a turtle on the ground or anything like that. Cyril Asker from what I've seen is pretty bad. He's got outstruck by a couple guys in the videos I've seen of him but he's toughed it out and he is a very willing grappler if he's losing the stand up. Both guys seem to not mind mixing it up on the feet or on the ground. My verdict is Cannonier outstrikes him to either put him away or beat him to a decision.

Stasiak doesn't look like much of a boxer, he just kicks a whole lot. Not much time spent in the pocket he just likes to either fight very far, or when it gets close he likes to change levels to the ground, but not a wrestling expert by any means. His BJJ looks very well versed though he's got some slick moves like a good omoplata sweep. I think if/when they get into grappling exchanges that Stasiak should have the upper hand and will win rounds. I think he wins a decision but the price ain't really that sweet +160 as opposed to just playing the ML, especially on fighters I barely know. Filip Pejic looks like one of those punks that are just wild and a bit unpredictable. He's a bit brash and he's disrespectful in the cage but to each his own. He's got some athleticism and not afraid to go balls to the wall. He's also gonna have a size advantage I believe. But he's far from a technician ANYWHERE on the feet or ground. I say he's a jackass because he taunts his opponents that he's finished. He'll get washed out of the UFC in no time I don't see a reason for him to act like that.

Those are my guesses.
 
Oblivian said:
Any thoughts on Asker/Cannonier and Statsiak/Pejic? I believe those are the only two that I haven't played.
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Rebel_LioN said:
I kinda got around to watching some footage on the fighters you mentioned.

My initial thoughts,

I think Cannonier is gonna win. The price ain't too bad -150. I think he's a solid early action play at -145 reduced odds. He's light on his feet and he moves well for a HW. I think he's got good fundamental boxing and he always keeps his hands up by his face. He's got decent grappling too so he's not a turtle on the ground or anything like that. Cyril Asker from what I've seen is pretty bad. He's got outstruck by a couple guys in the videos I've seen of him but he's toughed it out and he is a very willing grappler if he's losing the stand up. Both guys seem to not mind mixing it up on the feet or on the ground. My verdict is Cannonier outstrikes him to either put him away or beat him to a decision.

Stasiak doesn't look like much of a boxer, he just kicks a whole lot. Not much time spent in the pocket he just likes to either fight very far, or when it gets close he likes to change levels to the ground, but not a wrestling expert by any means. His BJJ looks very well versed though he's got some slick moves like a good omoplata sweep. I think if/when they get into grappling exchanges that Stasiak should have the upper hand and will win rounds. I think he wins a decision but the price ain't really that sweet +160 as opposed to just playing the ML, especially on fighters I barely know. Filip Pejic looks like one of those punks that are just wild and a bit unpredictable. He's a bit brash and he's disrespectful in the cage but to each his own. He's got some athleticism and not afraid to go balls to the wall. He's also gonna have a size advantage I believe. But he's far from a technician ANYWHERE on the feet or ground. I say he's a jackass because he taunts his opponents that he's finished. He'll get washed out of the UFC in no time I don't see a reason for him to act like that.

Those are my guesses.
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i originally thought asker could make this ugly and might be the better fighter on the ground, but second guessing that now. think the o1.5 could still hit, tho. seems to be durable & he doesn't seem to have much pop, himself. south african background (S.A. fight scene) is a negative, for sure.

stasiak is more of a grappler in mma imo. i know he has that karate background or w/e, but i think he's at a disadvantage standing w/pejic. pejic is gonna be longer, hometown guy, better hands etc.. it's hard to be confident in either of these fights but i could see this being a weird hometown decision for pejic. also, factor in that stasiak gassed hard at 145 last fight and now is going to 135? mehhhh. i do think stasiak is the better grappler and that could very well be the difference, but i'm thinking dog or pass (pejic or pass) atm. but no bets yet on this one

*edit* i was misinformed. mmaoddsbreaker peeps were talking about 135 for this, but it's 145 (stasiak-pejic)
 
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Raise your hand if anyone's confident in any of their picks on these lesser known fighters?

I'm just picking for the sake of action at this point lol. Kinda the general theme for this Croatian card.

No one truly knows what these guys will react in certain situations but if that's the case, I would definitely recommend to play the board on odds that pay out well. I take it as a premeditated loss but at least I'm risking less to win alot on long-odds.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Raise your hand if anyone's confident in any of their picks on these lesser known fighters?

I'm just picking for the sake of action at this point lol. Kinda the general theme for this Croatian card.

No one truly knows what these guys will react in certain situations but if that's the case, I would definitely recommend to play the board on odds that pay out well. I take it as a premeditated loss but at least I'm risking less to win alot on long-odds.
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Hand raised for confidence in Blaydes
 
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