Anyone else feel Aldana has a decent chance against Holm?
Yep. Holm is probably physically stronger and has cardio from hell but Aldana can out-point her. Holly's movement, while generally poor technically is quick enough to make Irene have to work to cut the cage. Now, as Holm does not exactly have the greatest power in her hands the major thing Aldana has to worry about is the LHK.
Potential issues:
1. Holm can throw all day. She spams punches, spams more, and then spams some more. The problem with this is that Aldana has good head movement until she starts to throw. She will be leaving a stable target up for Holm to tag while in punching range.
2. Neither has great grappling so it will probably stay on the feet. I expect Holly could wall-n-stall to a victory, this will depend on the ref.
3. Aldana has better technical striking with her hands. Not a lot of power so I was really surprised with the Viera KO.
As Holly's footwork is shit and all she does is basically side-step like she is in some stupid ass ho-down Aldana needs to figure out how to cut the cage properly. You can practice this all camp but doing it on fight night is something else entirely. Hopefully her corner can analyze well.
Aldana is not the greatest when countering, but if she can force Holm to be the aggressor she can out-point her here.
The myth that Holm is a "counter-striker" is still in the water supply. This is based off of comments following her fight with Ronda where she was assisted by Ronda running face first with her hands out into Holm's left straight until Holly did the world a favor with the LHK. She is not. We saw what happened when she faced an actual counter-striker (Shevchenko).
If Aldana counters more and cuts the cage properly she can win. If this turns into a clinch battle I think she loses but hope I am wrong. I have never seen much in the way of power from Aldana's kicks but she might chew up Holly's front leg a bit as Holm leans forward too far on her front (right) foot. She would need to time this properly to avoid getting lit up as Holly is fairly quick on the inside.
I think it is a close call either way but am picking Aldana. Not sure if Holly has lost a half-step or not and for me this fight is a decent indicator.
