Political Betting Thread

[Roads55]

That sounds about right. Biden should win the nomination given the rest of the map and there is a decent chance Biden has a major health scare prior to him being the nomination. The symptoms I’m seeing is slurred speech, loss of memory, and jumbled logic which are symptoms for serious health issues most notably a stroke. In the event of that occurring and Biden is ahead, does the DNC give the nomination to Bernie whose ideals are far different than Biden or does Biden name someone to take his place (similar to what happened with McCain in the Senate).

If Biden appoints, Hilary would be at the top of my list, she is the best moderate with name recognition that has a chance in all the battleground states. There are other options but you need someone good in all of them which is very hard to find.

biden isn't making hillary VP, no way i see that happening. and his VP pick is essentially his successor after a hypothetical 1st term ( does hillary have a potential 8 more years in her?) even if they tried to put her in, there would be so much uproar in the party of which they are now pushing the narrative of being unified under biden, that it would be the beginning of months and months more infighting which they simply can't afford right now. she has showed zero interest in running again and much more interest in public appearances and making money from her book etc.

 

[longway]

biden isn't making hillary VP, no way i see that happening. and his VP pick is essentially his successor after a hypothetical 1st term ( does hillary have a potential 8 more years in her?) even if they tried to put her in, there would be so much uproar in the party of which they are now pushing the narrative of being unified under biden, that it would be the beginning of months and months more infighting which they simply can't afford right now. she has showed zero interest in running again and much more interest in public appearances and making money from her book etc.

Blue sky thinking - Biden nominates Michelle as VP to try and recreate the Obama coalition using his star power. Biden will have to step down at some point if he wins, Michelle becomes Prez and nominates Obama as VP. Too far fetched? Depends on Michelle, does he want to run? Will he survive the scrutiny?

If there are any VP markets then Michelle is worth a small punt at long odds.

 

[Joedaman55]

biden isn't making hillary VP, no way i see that happening. and his VP pick is essentially his successor after a hypothetical 1st term ( does hillary have a potential 8 more years in her?) even if they tried to put her in, there would be so much uproar in the party of which they are now pushing the narrative of being unified under biden, that it would be the beginning of months and months more infighting which they simply can't afford right now. she has showed zero interest in running again and much more interest in public appearances and making money from her book etc.

Hillary wouldn’t be VP, she would be the nominee. People use the VP slot to garner more votes over whose a better successor (see Pence, Palin, Kaine, Bush sr. Etc). So you are correct, no way would Hillary be the VP.

There already is an uproar, the party consolidated to ensure Bernie wouldn’t win and now they’re in damage control to keep those votes for the general election. The infighting is inevitable and the Biden coalition was to not make the face of the party a socialist. Biden will be a general election disaster but he will keep the moderates in power of their party which hopefully doesn’t lost them the house (although with how bad Biden will do in a one on one debate with Trump, he might).

 

[Joedaman55]

Blue sky thinking - Biden nominates Michelle as VP to try and recreate the Obama coalition using his star power. Biden will have to step down at some point if he wins, Michelle becomes Prez and nominates Obama as VP. Too far fetched? Depends on Michelle, does he want to run? Will he survive the scrutiny?

If there are any VP markets then Michelle is worth a small punt at long odds.

This is possible but I doubt she wants to get into this level of politics, to most wealthy people it’s not worth it. She’s probably the best VP candidate outside of Oprah.

 

[longway]

Trump at -120 or better again. Get in while you can. I feel like adding more, but I have over 20u already, so 2x max bet. But I am tempted to add more.

 

[Roads55]

Trump at -120 or better again. Get in while you can. I feel like adding more, but I have over 20u already, so 2x max bet. But I am tempted to add more.

i thought about it but decided to hold of until after the Washington primary, just looked now and he's gone out to evens

 

[longway]

i thought about it but decided to hold of until after the Washington primary, just looked now and he's gone out to evens

Good that you held off. Is Biden really such a strong candidate? I think this is the Corona effect. The situation could go crazy and he will be left carrying the can. His tweets have been downplaying the disease and it will damage him if the virus takes hold heavily in the states.

 

[SalvadorCollie]

Give me anyone but Bernie, if satan was a candidate, I’d be tempted..

 

[Utop1st]

Trump at -120 or better again. Get in while you can. I feel like adding more, but I have over 20u already, so 2x max bet. But I am tempted to add more.

I think that Donny is wasted and he won't become president again.

 

[longway]

Give me anyone but Bernie, if satan was a candidate, I’d be tempted..

How about his gay son?

 

[SalvadorCollie]

How about his gay son?

never dabbled into his political spectrum, but I’d imagine the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. I’m cool with a gay president as long as he reflects constitutional ideology.

 

[Roads55]

RIP bernie

 

[longway]

Biden, the guy who led in the polls nearly all the time, won in the end, or barring any changes will win. lol.

Warren and bernie supporters hate each other. And both groups dont like biden. I as a trump fan fully approve.

I always thought that biden's cognitive decline would put him out of contention in the end, but it didnt. So, i could be wrong about 2020; imo the only thing standing in the way of trump's re-election is the wuhan virus. Things are looking pretty funky in that regard though, so this might be what finally beats him. I hope not.

 

[Barkus]

I can't imagine Trump winning with how badly he's handling the pandemic.

 

[Barkus]

Biden, the guy who led in the polls nearly all the time, won in the end, or barring any changes will win. lol.

Warren and bernie supporters hate each other. And both groups dont like biden. I as a trump fan fully approve.

I always thought that biden's cognitive decline would put him out of contention in the end, but it didnt. So, i could be wrong about 2020; imo the only thing standing in the way of trump's re-election is the wuhan virus. Things are looking pretty funky in that regard though, so this might be what finally beats him. I hope not.

I wouldn't touch Biden either with his cognitive decline. It's kind of sad actually. Plus you have to worry about these old politicians in general with their high exposure to the public and being the most at risk demographic for COVID-19 complications.

 

[longway]

I wouldn't touch Biden either with his cognitive decline. It's kind of sad actually. Plus you have to worry about these old politicians in general with their high exposure to the public and being the most at risk demographic for COVID-19 complications.

given trump's recent actions, including fed's slashing interest rate to 0% should help people rally around him. This can be seen as a war and people normally rally around their leaders' in a war, as long has he is seen to be standing up for them.

Can u imagine bernie or biden dealing with this? neither can I.

 

[impressivegoal]

I think that Donny is wasted and he won't become president again.

This. I don't see how someone could be confident in this guy getting reelected. Biden isn't hated as much as hilary, but most importantly many independents/Rs that voted for Donny won't do it again. Biden's primary success within the big turnout among primary doesn't bode well for donny.

Biden is basically crusing to the nom because so many voters have already made their mind up that their voting Blue in November...and they can't stomach voting for Bernie. imo at least, gl

 

[2bet]

1u on the Republicans, Bidens creep factor is unreal

 

[longway]

This. I don't see how someone could be confident in this guy getting reelected. Biden isn't hated as much as hilary, but most importantly many independents/Rs that voted for Donny won't do it again. Biden's primary success within the big turnout among primary doesn't bode well for donny.

Biden is basically crusing to the nom because so many voters have already made their mind up that their voting Blue in November...and they can't stomach voting for Bernie. imo at least, gl

There has been good turnout compared to 2016 primaries. Trump primaries have also had very good turnouts despite being a formality. I think both sides are motivated. I think Biden will come undone when he chooses surrogates like Beto who he tapped for gun control. Trump can run to the left or right of Biden on various issues wherever he chooses. Not sure what Biden's pitch is, besides get rid of trump, good for base, but will it draw the independents? Hard to believe.

He needs a star attraction to pull in the punters.

 

[longway]

Ive reassesed and pulled my 20u bet on trump winning. Profit 0.4u. :/