Political Betting Thread

[rev0lver]

The Hunter Biden pay for play scandal might be too big and too legitimate for the media to suppress much longer.

Regardless of what's true or false it's been the biggest bust of a last-minute dirt find that I've seen. Trump has a million things like that and no one really cared, and the evidence here is flimsy enough for plausible deniability. No one cares about this except the Trump fanbase and it's not gonna make a difference

 

[rev0lver]

You are right about that, but in this cycle he is giving cover for pollsters publishing, at best ascribed to negligence, polls eg ABC +17 Biden, they know the poll was bs, this doesn't happen unless they are trying to get a bad sample.

Ok, if biden wins that WI by +7 or something, then that poll picked up an outlier sample, but if not, then it was done to get a fake poll, but they overcooked it.

Then he called out trafalgar, for x tabs he knows dont reflect the issues he higlighted.

He isn't an honest broker.

If ABC polls can be generally reliable and don't contain fundamental methodological problems, I think it would be bad practice to pick and choose what to exclude even if it's (probably) an outlier. But from my understanding, Silver's system also has a weight factor when polls are outside the average range, regardless of the pollster rating. His tweet made sense there.

Also Trafalgar has now made it a practice to publish their crosstabs in every poll over the past week. The results there are still pretty wild, and it's giving me more confidence about Biden's chances in a couple states.

 

[rev0lver]

Gonna make my swing state predictions here for funsies. I feel pretty confident about most of these, but feel free to take it with a grain of salt. Asterisks where I think the results come down to the ~1% range but am leaning to one over the other:

MN: Biden
WI: Biden
MI: Biden
OH: Trump
NC: Trump*
FL: Biden*
GA: Trump
TX: Trump
NH: Biden
AZ: Biden
PA: Biden
IA: Trump

I think it's more likely for Biden to outperform this than for Trump. If Trump does better than this I think he'll just get FL, in which case Biden still wins.

 

[longway]

Gonna make my swing state predictions here for funsies. I feel pretty confident about most of these, but feel free to take it with a grain of salt. Asterisks where I think the results come down to the ~1% range but am leaning to one over the other:

MN: Biden
WI: Biden
MI: Biden
OH: Trump
NC: Trump*
FL: Biden*
GA: Trump
TX: Trump
NH: Biden
AZ: Biden
PA: Biden
IA: Trump

I think it's more likely for Biden to outperform this than for Trump. If Trump does better than this I think he'll just get FL, in which case Biden still wins.

18-29 3% caught my eye. This cant be good for Hiden.

The party affiliation is based on voting patterns, so can be taken with pinch of salt, but overall i think this is a good indicator for Trump.

 

[longway]

If ABC polls can be generally reliable and don't contain fundamental methodological problems, I think it would be bad practice to pick and choose what to exclude even if it's (probably) an outlier. But from my understanding, Silver's system also has a weight factor when polls are outside the average range, regardless of the pollster rating. His tweet made sense there.

Also Trafalgar has now made it a practice to publish their crosstabs in every poll over the past week. The results there are still pretty wild, and it's giving me more confidence about Biden's chances in a couple states.

Depends on final result. If has hiden ending up +7 say, i will give them benefit of doubt. If its as close as i suspect, then they were aiming for a good result for hiden, but overcooked it.

 

[Joedaman55]

My prediction: Trump 300, Biden 238

Swing states starting west:
NV: Biden
AZ: Trump
CO: Biden
NM: Biden (although no great polling data)
MN: Biden (state I’m least confident on, could flip)
WI: Biden
IA: Trump
MI: Trump
OH: Trump
PA: Trump
NH: Trump
MN2: Trump
VA: Biden
NC: Trump
GA: Trump
FL: Trump

Republicans hold Senate, Democrats keep House (not confident in this one either).

 

[rev0lver]

18-29 3% caught my eye. This cant be good for Hiden.

The party affiliation is based on voting patterns, so can be taken with pinch of salt, but overall i think this is a good indicator for Trump.

The ages only add up to 82%, same with race (84%). There's a lot of data missing. I just think whatever some orgs are using to get party affiliation in those midwestern states is really off, considering how wildly different their numbers are looking compared to states that do have party reg.

 

[stipeszn]

Feeling little bit better about my bets. GOP registered voters lead in Wisconsin in early voting! Youth vote has collapsed there to 5%.

party reg in wisconsin different, but lack of youth vote is a good sign for trump.

I just can't see Hiden and the ho being able to summon up this youth vote by hiding in a basement, occasionally appreaing to mumble incoherently and his ho wandering around and cackling for no reason.

https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/wisconsin-early-ballot-returns-show-gop-ahead-8-points/?amp

You really seem like you have very balanced analysis, completely devoid of any emotional interference.

 

[theTKDguy]

Biden will win

 

[rev0lver]

Mail-in/EV numbers seem to be giving Biden the lead he needs in PA. I think it's the highest likelihood of a Biden win among the real battleground states this election. If that's the case, he could actually lose MI and still win as long as he picks up another swing. He could even lose *both* MI and WI if he picks up either FL or OH.

 

[pajcath]

My prediction: Trump 300, Biden 238

Swing states starting west:
NV: Biden
AZ: Trump
CO: Biden
NM: Biden (although no great polling data)
MN: Biden (state I’m least confident on, could flip)
WI: Biden
IA: Trump
MI: Trump
OH: Trump
PA: Trump
NH: Trump
MN2: Trump
VA: Biden
NC: Trump
GA: Trump
FL: Trump

Republicans hold Senate, Democrats keep House (not confident in this one either).

What world you living in, bro?

 

[rev0lver]

Final betting numbers for me. Not a rich man so didn't go too crazy lol, just for fun. Good luck to all bettors here.

Joe Biden to win (overall electoral) - $524.39 to win $291.33
Dem to win TX - $20 to win $47
Dem to win PA - $50.19 to win $29.52
Dem to win IA - $10 to win $24
Dem to win GA - $15.29 to win $20.64
Dem to win FL - $25 to win $33.75
Dem to win AZ - $120 to win $92.31

Might add a small amount more tonight on AZ/PA, or I'll see how the lines shift

 

[Joedaman55]

What world you living in, bro?

The United States.

 

[Joedaman55]

Final betting numbers for me. Not a rich man so didn't go too crazy lol, just for fun. Good luck to all bettors here.

Joe Biden to win (overall electoral) - $524.39 to win $291.33
Dem to win TX - $20 to win $47
Dem to win PA - $50.19 to win $29.52
Dem to win IA - $10 to win $24
Dem to win GA - $15.29 to win $20.64
Dem to win FL - $25 to win $33.75
Dem to win AZ - $120 to win $92.31

Might add a small amount more tonight on AZ/PA, or I'll see how the lines shift

Lol nice, good luck buddy, I’m shocked Biden is a favorite in Arizona. Prolly call up a buddy on that.

 

[rev0lver]

Lol nice, good luck buddy, I’m shocked Biden is a favorite in Arizona. Prolly call up a buddy on that.

I'm very confident in a Biden win there, moreso than PA and it's my personal "lock" of the notable swings. Polls actually overestimated republican numbers in Arizona in both 2016 and 2018. If Biden's averaging a lead there (while Hillary was not in 2016), he should take it. The state's becoming more blue, they have a dem senate candidate ahead in his race, and there's a bit more Trump disdain there among I's and some R's via John McCain and Jeff Flake. Lots of factors pointing to it going blue here.

 

[rev0lver]

Looking at some local/state races, there's really not a ton of great lines. One I'm looking at is Bullock +190 in Montana. Polls have it at a coinflip, and he was a well-liked governor in a state that's not necessarily partisan in how they elect locally. Only mitigating factor here is party-line voting in a presidential year, where the state will almost undoubtedly go to Trump.

Cunningham -165 in NC doesn't seem too bad to play either. Tillis is widely disliked and will likely lose even if Trump wins NC.

Harrison +245 over Lindsey Graham in SC feels unlikely, but might be worth a small stab.

 

[pajcath]

The United States.

Me too. I just wasn't sure where you were getting info from that makes you unsure whether Dems retain control of the House or not. I didn't think them retaining was really in question at this point.

 

[Joedaman55]

Me too. I just wasn't sure where you were getting info from that makes you unsure whether Dems retain control of the House or not. I didn't think them retaining was really in question at this point.

Me and my DC buddy were just talking about the House. She thinks they are going to gain seats, I think they’ll lose some seats. I usually go off of 270towin.com and look at their electoral map.

There’s just too many races for me to accurately predict without studying races for hours. If you think Biden is winning, they’ll pick up some seats, if you see him losing, they’ll lose some. It’s very rare an incumbent president wins the house when he controls the senate and granted there are major things working against the Democrats this election cycle, I doubt it’ll cost them the House.

You had some huge shocks in society in 2020 and House Races are won and lost based on how those shocks affected that community. I think the oil and police things are going to be the largest impacts in areas and that’ll decide your house races. It won’t shock me at all if Republicans win it though and get majority again.

 

[Joedaman55]

I'm very confident in a Biden win there, moreso than PA and it's my personal "lock" of the notable swings. Polls actually overestimated republican numbers in Arizona in both 2016 and 2018. If Biden's averaging a lead there (while Hillary was not in 2016), he should take it. The state's becoming more blue, they have a dem senate candidate ahead in his race, and there's a bit more Trump disdain there among I's and some R's via John McCain and Jeff Flake. Lots of factors pointing to it going blue here.

Lol think your lock will be off but we got another 24+ hours to see. Arizona had a really strong Democratic senate candidate and a strong candidate can beat party lines.

In the 2016 election, Arizona did shift more blue though, we’ll see if that trend continues.

 

[longway]

The ages only add up to 82%, same with race (84%). There's a lot of data missing. I just think whatever some orgs are using to get party affiliation in those midwestern states is really off, considering how wildly different their numbers are looking compared to states that do have party reg.

That's bc not all early votes have been counted, unless there is a huge number of 18-29 in the last batch of votes, it's not going to change by much now. As I said, I am not really focusing on party affiliation, it was the age breakdown that caught my eye. it's pretty startling. But I could just be cherry-picking stuff that confirms my biases.