Ross the Real Deal is $4.60 - worth a punt?

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

LOL, that was his first finish in 10 fights on a guy that had consistently shown a good chin. You can't argue that smh.

@PolarBearPaulVarelans LMAO at you liking that comment when you just lost almost 7u on Mazo

Now you're even triggered by me liking comments? You keep hitting new lows, kid.

Just glad more people are realizing what an annoying little twerp you are and how laughable your "analysis" is.

 

[Jordan3399]

Now you're even triggered by me liking comments? You keep hitting new lows, kid.

Just glad more people are realizing what an annoying little twerp you are and how laughable your "analysis" is.

Umm your the guy who started ranting at me cause I liked one of Steve's comments a couple weeks ago lol

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Incidentally, this is why Jordan3399 is such a loathsome little worm; after talking shit to someone else (in this case, Rickson) and being proven wrong, instead of simply admitting "my mistake, you were right", he instead CONTINUES talking shit, completely unfazed.

His parents should really cut him off.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Humiliated? You could of made the exact same argument with Green against Tibau where he went to another decision... Your logic is just wrong lol

Also as I said before you totally ignored; Green had been to 15 decisions in 21 wins. You just focused on 3 of them saying how they hadn't been finished.

Muh muh muh learn something about lines and value and stop making excuses. Your arguments were shit, accept it.

 

[Jordan3399]

Incidentally, this is why Jordan3399 is such a loathsome little worm; after talking shit to someone else (in this case, Rickson) and being proven wrong, instead of simply admitting "my mistake, you were right", he instead CONTINUES talking shit, completely unfazed.

His parents should really cut him off.

See the thing is, literally a week ago, @Rickson was saying about how Willis was a good bet and Makdessi wasn't that great only for Makdessi and Blaydes to win one sided decisions. Then after the next week when he makes one pick right based off BS analysis he comes back immediately to talk shit.

I lost 0.5u on Pearson and went up over 8u between those other 2 wins I was correct on. Of course you guys would love to just ignore that smh.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

See the thing is, literally a week ago, @Rickson was saying about how Willis was a good bet and Makdessi wasn't that great only for both of them to win one sided decisions. Then after the next week when he makes one pick right based off BS analysis he comes back immediately to talk shit.

I lost 0.5u on Pearson and went up over 8u between those other 2 wins I was correct on. Of course you guys would love to just ignore that smh.

I didn’t say Willis was a good bet, you little lying shit. I said something about Willis being underestimated a week or something before the event without watching anything and I ended up not betting that fight at all. Makdessi isn’t that good and it’s true lol. I didn’t bet him neither. Talk about the fighters I said would win, not the ones where I faded the entire fight.

Pathetic attempt lol go bet Saenz or Boetsch now.

 

[Jordan3399]

I didn’t say Willis was a good bet, you little lying shit. I said something about Willis being underestimated a week or something before the event without watching anything and I ended up not betting that fight at all. Makdessi isn’t that good and it’s true lol.

Pathetic attempt lol go bet Saenz or Boetsch now.

haha how many insults are you going to try and throw while ignoring what I'm saying? It's just petty.

 

[Jordan3399]

I didn’t say Willis was a good bet, you little lying shit. I said something about Willis being underestimated a week or something before the event without watching anything and I ended up not betting that fight at all. Makdessi isn’t that good and it’s true lol. I didn’t bet him neither. Talk about the fighters I said would win, not the ones where I faded the entire fight.

Pathetic attempt lol go bet Saenz or Boetsch now.

'this fight is definitely not easy for Willis', ' easy money vs hunt', 'Wonderboy is easy money'. Dude are you serious? Your nonsense is written in black and white with you talking about how 4 fight parlays of juiced favourites is a great idea. That's just Degen af.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

'this fight is definitely not easy for Willis', ' easy money vs hunt', 'Wonderboy is easy money'. Dude are you serious? Your nonsense is written in black and white with you talking about how 4 fight parlays of juiced favourites is a great idea. That's just Degen af.

Did I bet it though? I didn’t, so go fuck yourself lol. My bets are tracked, I don’t talk about 100u swings and just post out numbers. Matter of fact, I don’t give a shit about who posted what as I‘m not in love with this forum as you are.

BTW Willis was easy money vs Hunt lol still love that + money. Wonderboy was easy if you hedged it with Pettis by KO because that was the only way he loses (was +450 something but you would say "Wonderboy was never finished !").

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I didn’t say Willis was a good bet, you little lying shit. I said something about Willis being underestimated a week or something before the event without watching anything and I ended up not betting that fight at all. Makdessi isn’t that good and it’s true lol. I didn’t bet him neither. Talk about the fighters I said would win, not the ones where I faded the entire fight.

Pathetic attempt lol go bet Saenz or Boetsch now.

Oh, that's Jordan's trademark. He continually lies about what you said, even after you correct him multiple times, and will lie about and self-justify his own arguments, no matter how ridiculous they are.

Everyone is wrong some of the time, but real men can admit this and give credit to those that called it correctly. Spoiled little brats like Jordan getting drunk and high on mommy and daddy's dime just continue spewing insults.

 

[Jordan3399]

@Rickson @PolarBearPaulVarelans

1) I wonder why you didn't bet Willis? It's like someone gave a really insightful breakdown on why it was a bad idea. I feel you should have a little more respect, frankly a thank you for what I said would be more appropriate.

2) Paul, its really sad watching you bandwagon onto any criticism anyone has of me. Especially when you just dropped that many units. Again.

Night x.

 

[Herzizou]

See the thing is, literally a week ago, @Rickson was saying about how Willis was a good bet and Makdessi wasn't that great only for Makdessi and Blaydes to win one sided decisions. Then after the next week when he makes one pick right based off BS analysis he comes back immediately to talk shit.

I lost 0.5u on Pearson and went up over 8u between those other 2 wins I was correct on. Of course you guys would love to just ignore that smh.

Nice point, but you gotta agree that even 0.5u on a Pearson was a sucker bet.. I don't care how juiced Green was, I didn't bet this fight, but there was no value at all on the english. He is absolutely shot at this point on his career.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

@Rickson @PolarBearPaulVarelans

1) I wonder why you didn't bet Willis? It's like someone gave a really insightful breakdown on why it was a bad idea. I feel you should have a little more respect, frankly a thank you for what I said would be more appropriate.

2) Paul, its really sad watching you bandwagon onto any criticism anyone has of me. Especially when you just dropped that many units. Again.

Night x.

You really think I read your essay of a breakdown smh. I knew Willis never had to stop a takedown, so I faded the fight after watching some of his fights again.

I can give you a Mousasi "go fuck yourself" lol

 

[Jordan3399]

Nice point, but you gotta agree that even 0.5u on a Pearson was a sucker bet.. I don't care how juiced Green was, I didn't bet this fight, but there was no value at all on the english. He is absolutely shot at this point on his career.

Value side was Pearson, striking was close and he got up immediately from Greens takedown. If he Green didn't unload like that against the cage, which is a rarity for him, we'd of had a continually competitive fight. Skillwise they weren't that far apart at all it was just gambling Pearson wasn't going to break and at +400 with a guy that typically doesn't test that then thats an absolutely fine bet and long term has made me plenty of money.

Guys like Rickson want to mention stuff like Saenz and Boetsch but I lost nothing on Saenz as a I hedged with Vera R1 and I've made a lot fading the public hyping the younger guy. Just a few recent ones include Aldo, Thiago Alves, Diego Sanchez, Cowboy, Teixeira who I all cashed big on while guys bet their opponents saying they were shot and it was foolish betting them. Guys like Paul did the same thing dumping 5u on Griffin against Alves while all the sharp guys were taking Alves at around +200 which had clear value if you actually taped and knew what you were talking about.

Its pretty easy to tell when someone's shot and when they're not and even when they are shot, skillwise they are normally levels above younger guys and have easy paths to victory still like Glover and Sanchez just easy outgrappling their opponents.

It's funny that on all those big wins I never go back to chat shit to people but when I lost 0.5u they immediately comeback to say stuff lol

 

[Jordan3399]

You really think I read your essay of a breakdown smh. I knew Willis never had to stop a takedown, so I faded the fight after watching some of his fights again.

I can give you a Mousasi "go fuck yourself" lol

Sure dude, so after all that nonsense you wrote about how Willis being the value side you just casually decided to retape it and then pass on the fight? Nothing to do with the breakdown I did that got upvoted by 15 or so people countering every single one of your original points? I totally believe you lmao

 

[Guffman]

Too many overly sensitive egos trying to prove they're the smartest guy in the room. I liked this sub-forum when I first found it, but turns out it's just toxic like the rest of the site.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I thought he had some pretty solid value for sure, shows how much I know, lol. Dez fucked his shit up, he should probably think about hanging em up soon, has had a very respectable career but he's getting a bit long in the tooth for the sport.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Oh, that's Jordan's trademark. He continually lies about what you said, even after you correct him multiple times, and will lie about and self-justify his own arguments, no matter how ridiculous they are.

Everyone is wrong some of the time, but real men can admit this and give credit to those that called it correctly. Spoiled little brats like Jordan getting drunk and high on mommy and daddy's dime just continue spewing insults.

Listen to yourself.

Talking about what real men should and shouldn't do while sounding every bit the 40+ year old egomaniac spewing rhetoric on a sherdog forum late at night. So are you the kind of man that young men like Jordan should aspire to be: an argumentative old windbag who's never wrong and who the whole world is against?

If you do think he is just a young guy (you have no proof by the way, maybe just him saying he is in university) then all you come across as is an old bully picking on a little kid. Grow up. And go away. What little you did bring to the forum has disappeared since you decided your analysis was too insightful to simply share with us loathsome people, us worms, brats, and scumbags.

In your eyes, if we're all against you, if we are just worms, brats, and scumbags, what exactly does it make you; who lords over them? King of the scumbags? Congratulations.

I know you can't help yourself but don't bother replying. I'm finally, finally going to ignore you. Been long overdue but you're an utter waste of time and I apologize to the good of the forum for taking up as much space as I've done already.


And @Rickson, right or wrong, Paul isn't the guy you wanna team up with.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

LOL, that was his first finish in 10 fights on a guy that had consistently shown a good chin. You can't argue that smh.

@PolarBearPaulVarelans LMAO at you liking that comment when you just lost almost 7u on Mazo

I think you are a little off in your reasoning here Jordan. I played with the numbers a bit after seeing this discussion, and just stat wise the implied probability of KO looked about right. That Green hasn't had many finishes historically was of course the reason the KO was @6.00 despite him being a huge favorite. The name of this betting game is to find reasons of believing that an event is more likely to happen than what people are expecting; Rickson gave some reasons as to why a Green KO is more likely than what his KO history would indicate, that is exactly the kind of argument that makes sense trying to find betting value. (I'm not saying that the KO happening means that Rickson was right, but in hindsight it seems very likely that there was real value there)

(calling Polar out for liking a comment is just ridiculously unconstructive btw)

 

[Jordan3399]

I think you are a little off in your reasoning here Jordan. I played with the numbers a bit after seeing this discussion, and just stat wise the implied probability of KO looked about right. That Green hasn't had many finishes historically was of course the reason the KO was @6.00 despite him being a huge favorite. The name of this betting game is to find reasons of believing that an event is more likely to happen than what people are expecting; Rickson gave some reasons as to why a Green KO is more likely than what his KO history would indicate, that is exactly the kind of argument that makes sense trying to find betting value. (I'm not saying that the KO happening means that Rickson was right, but in hindsight it seems very likely that there was real value there)

(calling Polar out for liking a comment is just ridiculously unconstructive btw)

I'm all for looking for value, but thats not what he was saying he said that Pearson was a wasted bet as a huge underdog and that 'He is going to sleep', and a sweeping declaration like that is just plain stupid in MMA and getting overly invested in props his a fast way to lose big. Even prefight I fought there was little value in the KO line, I capped Green around -230 and given how little he has cared about finishing before I capped his KO line at around what the books had it at. Then post fight as soon as Green finished he comes back to chat shit and throw insults. I think thats ridiculously petty and arrogant when last week I could of comfortably done the same over the Blaydes fight to him but never even considered it given how childish it is.

As for Paul I just called him out for doing it as he complained at me liking one of Steve's comments before and was highlighting how hypocritical it was. I completely agree with you on how unconstructive it is.