TUF 23 finale - JJ vs gadelha II - Las Vegas

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SalvadorAllende said:
I like Pearson at +300.

It is Brooks first fight in the UFC and he could very well underperform. Also I dont think that he is THAT good. Chandler (twice) is a good win but he tends to block punches with his face. He may be the favorite but -400 is just off IMO. Ross is a seasoned veteran who has been fighting really good guys for a long time.

Also like Maynard at -133. Yes he has been losing a lot lately and is pretty shot but he is getting a serious step down in competition here.
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Agree with everything.

I'm huge on Maynard. Bruno is one of the worst strikers in the UFC and I highly doubt he'll be able to get it to the ground. Maynard's losses aren't bad at all. Diaz, one of the best boxers in MMA, Yakovlev, someone I rate very highly and expect big things from, and Pearson, who is always a solid striker (not to mention Gray was looking very good in that fight).
 
Maynard fought Edgar a couple times and has 14 matches on UFC level. Now he fights a guy with 0-1 in the UFC. Watching the last 4 fights got me very doubtful. The beating he took is bad. Like really bad. Even worse is that he looked kinda okay against Grant, but seems to gotten slower since then. The only improvement I've seen is some sideways movement. Otherwise it's all the same: hands low, leap in to throw some non-technical haymakers, and back out. For some reason takedowns haven't been his thing (against Diaz understandably).
Would bet Bruno but Nova Uniao issue. Guess I'm passing..
 
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EzFlyer said:
nope. i'm thinking about it, too.

just remember that zafir's first fight was on SUPER short notice
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check out his other fights on youtube. it doesn't get any better lol.
 
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/7/3...-finale-mma-ufc-news-weight-cut-jake-matthews

This dude is delusional. Says hes gonna start shit with Will Brooks, says hes gonna call out Al Iaquinta, thinks his new style is better, makes it sound like going from a wrestler to a striker was some sort of evolution even though he got ktfo by a guy whos hands are mediocre at best. Says he wouldn't have taken this fight if it wasn't in Vegas. Only solid point he makes is the time difference between Australia and LV.
 
I think Kevin Lee has the Phil Davis problem where he is a wrestler with too much muscles that they slow down his hand speed. Lee thinks his hands are better than they actually are and he goes in a fight looking to strike more than grapple. What's worse is his chin is not solid and he has no ko power lol. He's talented and can win this fight with a good game plan but if he just going to strike with Mathews, he'll get his chin cracked at some point with how his hands are always low. I would love to see him come in to grapple with Mathews tho. I think he's a better wrestler than Mathews.
 
Just to add to what conmemay said lee is absolutely the better wrestler. Matthews' tds suck!
 
"I've already posted this, but I think the lines on Gadelha are all off. I think this could/should be a coin flip by fight time. Their 1st fight was razor close (I thought Gadelha won it). And although JJ has been impressive in her fights since that fight, they were all great stylistic opportunities. Carla and Penne are both small for the weight class, are grapplers who couldn't take her down, and have below average standup. Valerie is big for the weight class, but almost too big, which has been shown by her move up to 125. She only had a couple good rounds in her. Plus JJ is/was the better striker anyway.

Gadelha has only had one fight since the one with JJ, but it was an absolute destruction of Aguilar who was highly regarded in the weight class.

With all that said, nothing has really changed for me since their first fight. They have both looked amazing. I personally view this as a coin flip. Maybe very slight lean JJ cus she's champ and wins the trash talk/mental game.

Okay. Now that I say this a coin flip, Gadelha is sitting at +190. Furthermore, the fight going to a DEC is like -250, but Gadehla DEC is +350. Since JJ hasn't lost yet, I think she'll lose by DEC if she does lose.

I love the Gadelha DEC +350. I wouldn't be surprised if the odds were even by fight time and Gadehla DEC was like +180. So I think this is a very close fight that is going to a decision. This is when I bring up that this is Poland vs Brazil. This fight is being held during the three event weekend. There are 4 Brazilians fighting for a title that weekend (RDA, Gadehla, Aldo, Nunes). I have a very strong feeling the crowd will most likely be more pro brazilian than pro Poland/JJ.

Now on top of everything I just said, Gadehla Split DEC is sitting at +1000... Enough said. I really like Gadehla ML, DEC, split DEC at current odds.

JJ NSC -148 is nice, too


This fight is only 5 weeks away, btw. Not too long"


_____________________________________________________

^^^ post of mine from a month ago


I know the fight is still like five days away, but damn, I predicted the line movement pretty spot on.

Current lines

Gadelha ML +105
Gadelha DEC +177
Gadelha Split DEC +557
JJ NSC -225



I can't really see Gadelha turning to the favorite, though or staying there if so. If someone is looking to play JJ, this might be a good time to do it. Possibly wait for reduced juice
 
I think Gadelha's gas tank is still a problem. She lost the 3rd round in her last fight and 2nd round was close so it was no destruction. She'll probably win the 1st round against JJ but the last 3 rounds will favor JJ heavily. She will probably have a harder time taking down JJ this time around with JJ's confidence at an all time high.
 
lee decision +295

jingliang ITD +115

like these
 
u know after the dunham fight pearson stated he trained his defencive wrestling relentlessly to ensure "that never happens again". i think he's gonna be prepared for brooks' style so maybe worth a flyer on pearson at those long ass odds. definitely can't play brooks as such a heavy fav.
 
EzFlyer said:
lee decision +295

jingliang ITD +115

like these
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Tailed. Will be betting Matthews most likely with this as a hedge.
Got jingliang at -110. Need to research it but took the prop small. I expect both those lines to get worse.
 
that Lee dec line is definitely a nice hedge option to Mathews money line
 
VandelayIndstry said:
Tailed. Will be betting Matthews most likely with this as a hedge.
Got jingliang at -110. Need to research it but took the prop small. I expect both those lines to get worse.
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I hope you super slammed Jingliang at -110. He is near -360.
 
if jingliang ML opened at -110 i would have thrown about 3k on it.
 
I just have a sneaky suspicion that Gadelha is gonna take Joanna down and snatch a sub. What are the sub lines here?
 
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