TUF 23 finale - JJ vs gadelha II - Las Vegas

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kenCs said:
Whats the price on the fight ends ITD, Tavares ITD , sub line, Choi ITD, Choi KO line and the fight goes the distance lines?
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No props yet, prob will be a few days til we get those. Fight goes distance is likely to be around +220 if o1.5 is +110
 
Joseph Budden said:
No props yet, prob will be a few days til we get those. Fight goes distance is likely to be around +220 if o1.5 is +110
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Hoping for some generous round 1 props aswell.
 
to me tavares looks very good on the ground but his takedowns don't look that great. happy to take choi at the current price.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Now that we have all the lines, safe to say 200 is the best event for betting yeah? At least I strongly feel so. Gonna be a nice way to cap off the 3 days
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This is by far the best of the 3 imo, and FN 90 is by far the worst.

I'm going to wait to say anything, but I'm shocked by a lot of the lines on this card.
 
No one biting Pearson? Always a good guy to bet as a big dog. In a 3 round fight I think he'll make it close in the striking, just have no idea how his TDD will hold up if it comes down to it.
 
how is matthews the favorite? i expected reverse odds on that one :)
 
wack3d said:
how is matthews the favorite? i expected reverse odds on that one :)
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Lee didn't look good in his last fight vs Escudero and got knocked out vs Santos the fight before, whilst Matthews just had his best performance of his career vs Case in his last fight.
 
Brooks -263 still at Betsafe. Judging by the Dunham fight i'd say he struggles to stay up right.

I was high on Lee but his last two fights have been disappointing. He doesn't seem to have the best chin...

I will rewatch Matthews last fight before making a decision as I wasn't very high on him but he impressed me last time out.

Choi I like but not knowing what his ground game is like makes me nervous betting him against Tavares.
 
vkram said:
Lee didn't look good in his last fight vs Escudero and got knocked out vs Santos the fight before, whilst Matthews just had his best performance of his career vs Case in his last fight.
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true i still dont think lee should be +160 50/50 fight imo or maybe even slight edge for lee if he comes in at his best.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Brooks -263 still at Betsafe. Judging by the Dunham fight i'd say he struggles to stay up right.

I was high on Lee but his last two fights have been disappointing. He doesn't seem to have the best chin...

I will rewatch Matthews last fight before making a decision as I wasn't very high on him but he impressed me last time out.

Choi I like but not knowing what his ground game is like makes me nervous betting him against Tavares.
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i like the brooks line for some parlays bad matchup for pearson.. hope we get a good line on his dec too
 
Will also rewatch the guy fighting glass jaw Cezar's UFC debut. Loving fading that chin...
 
wack3d said:
i like the brooks line for some parlays bad matchup for pearson.. hope we get a good line on his dec too
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I agree that it's a bad style matchup for Pearson, but I can't get behind that price. Pearson isn't exactly a scrub.
 
I'm just lb this card maybe some small prebets. Lee Matthew has lb written all over it. Brooks I haven't seen fight so I'm going against my better nature by betting him so I'm not going to. I like choi but don’t know enough about his tdd or ground game to confidently play him. I love fading cezar but smith has a lot of KO losses too.
 
Regarding Choi, I mentioned in my b/d earlier about his foot work and ability to avoid take downs, something jb mentioned earlier, but he does love to counter strike and is mainly a stand up fighter.
Its not to say he has no grappling, he trains wrestling and conditioning in his training camp often and even started jiu jitsu at a school 8 years ago when one became available close to him.

I like tavares but think his best chance of a win here is when he is fresh and in r1 with a sub otherwise reckon Choi will have the much faster and more accurate hands and will buckle tavares, this is certainly chois biggest fight to date but still ultimately favour choi, may take a flyer on choi r2/r3 finish even.
 
Agree about lee/jake, feels a coin toss still both great young fighters and prospects in the sport. I don't think we can count out kevin just yet even if jake is looking great and has that momentum on him. I think a stronger chance of the fight not going the distance though due to jake's aggressive style. If I had to put money on it jake itd for now but its a live bet dream fight really.
 
I think Matthews was on his way to losing a split decision (according to the scorecards) to Case before he got the finish late in the third.
 
vkram said:
I think Matthews was on his way to losing a split decision (according to the scorecards) to Case before he got the finish late in the third.
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agreed. another few small points that makes me lean towards lee is that he has a bit more ufc experience and he faced better opposition imo the only opponents still in the ufc that matthews faced is vick and case.. also its matthews first fight ever outside australia that could have some influence on such a young fighter.
 
Some of will brooks bellator HL and footage (last few fights)





Was not aware but he popped his knee in his last fight back in nov 2015 but still won the fight.
Good wrestling and decent ability to get reversals or back to his feet, nice kickboxing and boxing also,
all depends which pearson turns up here since brooks could out work him to a decision here just to secure his first ufc win.
 
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