UFC 201 - Lawler vs Woodley - Atlanta

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EzFlyer said:
She's practically never gonna finish rose imo ... so yeah I'd pump the breaks on the ml
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I agree. I missed the +310 decision opener and now it's down to +250. For that price difference I'm happy with the ML.
 
t6p said:
I agree. I missed the +310 decision opener and now it's down to +250. For that price difference I'm happy with the ML.
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yea, shit, i would've prolly taken that +310, too

props up, for those who didn't notice
 
Haven't watched tape yet but I'm not sure KK is better then Rose standing given how Rose doesn't need to worry about takedowns and the general edge in athletic ability and possibly speed.

I know Angela Hill might not be considered a great fighter or whatever but she won a 5 round fight over Souza in Invicta recently and Rose made her look silly with her speed and swarming ability. KK is probably a better technical striker but given output and ability to finish fights via scrambles I'm not sure she'll win a mostly stand up fight.

That said I havn't watched tape and I'm shit at judging stand up.

Also just for a random prediction: Rose won't get the next title shot but rather get a rematch against Esparza after this. She's a super talented young fighter who will probably be champ some day, and they don't want her to end up with a 8-4 record when she takes the title given that she has potential to be a half decent draw at some point. They will keep feeding her semi-name fighters and build her up for a bit, guessing they'll put Calderwood/Andrade winner up next, maybe throw Hamasaki a contract and a gimmie into a title shoot and whatever else they can dig up (Waterson/Daly winner? Aguilar on a win or two? Maybe Torres if she gets a few wins, that be weird but fuck if I know) and let Rose get to 8-2 or something before they throw her in there. She can keep beating up whatever borderline name/top10-fighter on the wrong side of 30 who manages to string a few wins together while she builds a fan base, gets a better highlight reel and picks up a couple of Performance of the nights. Imagine this young-ish star who has gotten revenge for every loss on her record, on a five-ish fight win streak with a bunch of cool finishes against the by then 15-0 champ who has beaten everyone else and held the title for ~3 years and 5-6 title fights. That stuff might actually sell decently, while Rose vs Joanna wouldn't be more then a weird co-main or something on a fightpass card right now.
 
Slohog said:
Haven't watched tape yet but I'm not sure KK is better then Rose standing given how Rose doesn't need to worry about takedowns and the general edge in athletic ability and possibly speed.

I know Angela Hill might not be considered a great fighter or whatever but she won a 5 round fight over Souza in Invicta recently and Rose made her look silly with her speed and swarming ability. KK is probably a better technical striker but given output and ability to finish fights via scrambles I'm not sure she'll win a mostly stand up fight.

That said I havn't watched tape and I'm shit at judging stand up.

Also just for a random prediction: Rose won't get the next title shot but rather get a rematch against Esparza after this. She's a super talented young fighter who will probably be champ some day, and they don't want her to end up with a 8-4 record when she takes the title given that she has potential to be a half decent draw at some point. They will keep feeding her semi-name fighters and build her up for a bit, guessing they'll put Calderwood/Andrade winner up next, maybe throw Hamasaki a contract and a gimmie into a title shoot and whatever else they can dig up (Waterson/Daly winner? Aguilar on a win or two? Maybe Torres if she gets a few wins, that be weird but fuck if I know) and let Rose get to 8-2 or something before they throw her in there. She can keep beating up whatever borderline name/top10-fighter on the wrong side of 30 who manages to string a few wins together while she builds a fan base, gets a better highlight reel and picks up a couple of Performance of the nights. Imagine this young-ish star who has gotten revenge for every loss on her record, on a five-ish fight win streak with a bunch of cool finishes against the by then 15-0 champ who has beaten everyone else and held the title for ~3 years and 5-6 title fights. That stuff might actually sell decently, while Rose vs Joanna wouldn't be more then a weird co-main or something on a fightpass card right now.
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I'd be down for Rose vs Carla II
 
Okay so Woodley ML is +185. Not sure why anyone would bet that. He's not winning a decision with his gas tank, he slows down too much after 10-15 minutes. He's not winning by sub.

His KO/TKO line is +405. Now THAT I can get on board with.
 
Fuckkk Borg is out vs Fredy Serrano, replaced by Ryan Benoit

I felt confident Serrano would open maybe as high as +180 and I was gonna place a large bet on him. Thought he was a bad matchup for Geane. Not sure what I'll do now but Benoit is an interesting fight for him
 
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Serrano was going to fight Borg, and I liked him there, he would have made that close as fuck.

Fuck sake.
 
Ballsaque said:
Serrano was going to fight Borg, and I liked him there, he would have made that close as fuck.

Fuck sake.
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Whoops, just realized before my edit that I put Geane Herrera instead of Borg. But yep agreed, Serrano would've been a tough matchup and we prob would've had dog odds on him
 
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I like Woodley KO at +400. I just cant erase of my mind those sick punches he landed on Condit CLEAN. Not his fault Carlos is a fucking robot.

I still favor Lawler and will probably play his KO line too. I mean... does anybody think this end by decision or sub?

I dont think Woodley can lay and pray at all and he has no chance in hell to survive 25 minutes there. Either he lands something beatuful like he did against Koscheck or he gets KTFOed at some point.
 
livebet lawler after round 1, irrespective of how the round goes.

woodley in the championship rounds is a disaster waiting to happen.
 
Unibet has Lawler-Woodley Fight ends in KO/TKO @1.79. I think it's great cause if Woodley doesn't finish this early late rounds Ruthless surely will destroy him.
 
Anyone on Rivera vs Perez?I was thinking about Rivera, but he is 1-4 in his last 5(should be 2-3.Last Perez fight, he fought one trick ponny and grappler.Don't know much about him though
 
I know who my parlay is pls have leniency on the line betting gods
 
Thoughts on Ian McCall fight?
They're so close in skills. McCall has good striking(Competitive with lineker), Good wrestling, Good BJJ, and decent cardio.
Though he had a long layoff, retirement talk, and constant nagging injuries.
Scoggins is a lot younger, longer, and more active.

Right now I'm on the fence. If Ian McCalls odds get better he's an easy bet. Though I do favor Scoggins especially after the Borg fight.
 
Tebowned said:
Thoughts on Ian McCall fight?
They're so close in skills. McCall has good striking(Competitive with lineker), Good wrestling, Good BJJ, and decent cardio.
Though he had a long layoff, retirement talk, and constant nagging injuries.
Scoggins is a lot younger, longer, and more active.

Right now I'm on the fence. If Ian McCalls odds get better he's an easy bet. Though I do favor Scoggins especially after the Borg fight.
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On the o2.5, but McCall definitely is getting overlooked a bit with the current lines. This should be very competitive. Scoggins exposed how uncomfortable and undeveloped Borg is when forced to strike, but McCall won't have those problems. He's very solid everywhere. Could be a good chance to livebet McCall in this one, or some value on him to win by dec
 
$125 max bet on Woodley R1 +850.

I see this main event very similar to the Nunes Tate fight where I wagered $200 on Nunes R1 +850.

I'm getting the same exact odds for almost the same exact situation. 80% of the time I think Woodley wins it is in round 1, 15% of the time in round 2, and 5% in round 3 and after. Exactly how I capped Nunes

It's even a very similar situation for their opponents, Tate and lawler. Both are known to take damage and take over the fight later on. Both of them have taken a lot of damage throughout their careers and went up against arguably the heaviest hitters in their divisions. Not to mention Woodley has been wanting this fight just like Nunes did vs Tate. He must know something from training that we might not

EDIT: Lets be real here. Lawler has taken a shit ton of damage recently and Woodley is arguably the hardest hitter in the division. You're getting +850 for basically his most likely route to victory

I am not guaranteeing it will hit or anything, but this line has serious value
 
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Jae Gibbz said:
$125 max bet on Woodley R1 +850.

I see this main event very similar to the Nunes Tate fight where I wagered $200 on Nunes R1 +850.

I'm getting the same exact odds for almost the same exact situation. 80% of the time I think Woodley wins it is in round 1, 15% of the time in round 2, and 5% in round 3 and after. Exactly how I capped Nunes

It's even a very similar situation for their opponents, Tate and lawler. Both are known to take damage and take over the fight later on. Both of them have taken a lot of damage throughout their careers and went up against arguably the heaviest hitters in their divisions. Not to mention Woodley has been wanting this fight just like Nunes did vs Tate. He must know something from training that we might not

EDIT: Lets be real here. Lawler has taken a shit ton of damage recently and Woodley is arguably the hardest hitter in the division. You're getting +850 for basically his most likely route to victory

I am not guaranteeing it will hit or anything, but this line has serious value
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Nunes is WAY better striker than Tate.Comparing these fights has no sense.I feard Woodley will KO Lawler, but I'm pretty confident Robbie will win it.Better chin, better overall striking and outstanding tdd.Woodley got jabbed by Macdonald and struggled with Gastelum.He had succes with Condit because of takedowns threat.Lawler of course will be aware of takedowns, but his tdd is the outstanding and Condit has 0 tdd
 
michi972 said:
Nunes is WAY better striker than Tate.Comparing these fights has no sense.I feard Woodley will KO Lawler, but I'm pretty confident Robbie will win it.Better chin, better overall striking and outstanding tdd.Woodley got jabbed by Macdonald and struggled with Gastelum.He had succes with Condit because of takedowns threat.Lawler of course will be aware of takedowns, but his tdd is the outstanding and Condit has 0 tdd
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These are good points but I agree with Jae that anyone wanting to play Woodley would be crazy not to take his round 1 prop at +850. I think Robbie is rightfully the favorite but Woodley certainly is dangerous early.
 
I am more wary of these -210 overs after the Sanchez debacle, but I really trust McCall and Scoggins not to get finished.
 
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