UFC 201 - Lawler vs Woodley - Atlanta

[MMAJay]

I think Lawler really displayed how good he's jab has become in that Macdonald fight. Once he get's that jab going, he will take over the fight. He doesn't mind loosing the first couple of rounds, because he rely so much on his pressure later on.

As of right now the o2.5 @ 1.690 looks pretty good too me. Of course there is a risk of Woodley winning early, but besides that I think Lawler will stop it later on. Woodley KNOWS he has to pace himself, and he has to decide to either go for it early on or actually try too pace himself for the later rounds.

I hope that Lawler will take it easy the first round and let Woodley have that one, and then go nuts on the Lawler LB afterwords.
I also have my eyes on Lawler R4 @ 12.250 and R5 @ 17.250. If the fight surprisingly goes that far, then Woodley will probably wilt under that late berserk pressure of Lawler.

If you were to hedge, what would you choose?

 

[Sham5916910]

Wow i actually agree with barry!

 

[oliverinsix]

Like Rivera at even odds. Think he should've been a slight favorite and that he's being underrated after coming off a string of losses. I thought he edged Pickett in his last outing but lost it with hometown judging. He also took that fight on short, albeit one month, notice.

He definitely has a clear power and speed advantage against Perez who seems to be even more hittable since adopting Alliance's erect light on the feet fight style of striking and moving (He moved to Alliance from Jackson's around July 2015). Perez was also caught and dropped in his last fight and I'm pretty sure Rivera will be able to connect clean a few times. Also like that Rivera maintains a much more active schedule while Perez is fighting at almost an average of once her year. As a young fighter though, he could have made some marked improvements and that was evident in his complete style change between his Lapilus and Caraway fight, but I don't think he has enough power to threaten Rivera or strong enough wrestling to dominate Rivera in the grappling. Haven't heard much discussion on this fight yet so I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts. After watching tape, I'm eyeing a moderate sized bet on Rivera. Really think Perez molding himself under Alliance's Cruz/Jury striking model will be detrimental to his success.

 

[iGnP]

One tip about the main event: Woodley does not like to be pressured. Rory pressured him relentlessly and so did Jake Shields. Lawler is a pressure fighter so take that into account before we talk about Woodley having value. Not all fights have value, you cannot force value in a dog pick. Capping is both a science and an art, most bettors don't cap well enough to find true value.

There's one fight on this card that I think has more value than bargain hunters shopping at value village. I won't tip my hand, but when I saw the opening line lets just say I hit it with a thousands smashes of Thor's Hammer.

- Barry

barry, is there value on Robbie or is this a stay away for you

 

[weedreference]

One tip about the main event: Woodley does not like to be pressured. Rory pressured him relentlessly and so did Jake Shields. Lawler is a pressure fighter so take that into account before we talk about Woodley having value. Not all fights have value, you cannot force value in a dog pick. Capping is both a science and an art, most bettors don't cap well enough to find true value.

There's one fight on this card that I think has more value than bargain hunters shopping at value village. I won't tip my hand, but when I saw the opening line lets just say I hit it with a thousands smashes of Thor's Hammer.

- Barry

Lawler is a counter-striker... he throws punches like a brawler, so that may have you mixed up. But almost all of his fights take place in the center of the cage, with his opponent's not wanting to push him back for fear of being countered.

Also, Woodley wants you to pressure him, so he can hit counter takedowns and counter-rights when you overcommit. Rory was successful against him by not overcommiting. I actually think being a counter-fighter is better for Robbie in this matchup than if he were a pressure fighter.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Lawler is a counter-striker... he throws punches like a brawler, so that may have you mixed up. But almost all of his fights take place in the center of the cage, with his opponent's not wanting to push him back for fear of being countered.

Also, Woodley wants you to pressure him, so he can hit counter takedowns and counter-rights when you overcommit. Rory was successful against him by not overcommiting. I actually think being a counter-fighter is better for Robbie in this matchup than if he were a pressure fighter.

Yeah, I think you are right. Woodley usually does the same thing, he backs up against the cage and then shoots a double leg when/if you overcommit and Rory never did.

 

[weedreference]

Like Rivera at even odds. Think he should've been a slight favorite and that he's being underrated after coming off a string of losses. I thought he edged Pickett in his last outing but lost it with hometown judging. He also took that fight on short, albeit one month, notice.

He definitely has a clear power and speed advantage against Perez who seems to be even more hittable since adopting Alliance's erect light on the feet fight style of striking and moving (He moved to Alliance from Jackson's around July 2015). Perez was also caught and dropped in his last fight and I'm pretty sure Rivera will be able to connect clean a few times. Also like that Rivera maintains a much more active schedule while Perez is fighting at almost an average of once her year. As a young fighter though, he could have made some marked improvements and that was evident in his complete style change between his Lapilus and Caraway fight, but I don't think he has enough power to threaten Rivera or strong enough wrestling to dominate Rivera in the grappling. Haven't heard much discussion on this fight yet so I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts. After watching tape, I'm eyeing a moderate sized bet on Rivera. Really think Perez molding himself under Alliance's Cruz/Jury striking model will be detrimental to his success.

Agreed... I'm liking Rivera here. I think his TDD will hold up, and he is a far more technical boxer than Perez.

 

[Sham5916910]

BV loads of odds for lawler woodley. I hit enhanced special woodey ko or dq r1 +1000 but limited me to £20. Instantly changed price to +700 when bet went through. Tried to bet lawler r4 +1400 but before putting it through changed it to +1000 lol. I then tried to hit woodley ko r1 (not enhanced special) @ +800 but before putting it through changed odds to +600 lol. Sorry chaps!

McCall dec on there @ +300

 

[plekz]

never gonna be a believer in ''thug'' rose. she's already shown she breaks under pressure, and for all that ''mean face'' she puts on, it's fairly easy to see right through that facade. she barely got by torres. would surprise me a ton to see her stand and throw with karolina, it's more gonna be like wrestle rose for 15 minutes and trying to get a rnc.

 

[Card]

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/7/1...ake-joseph-gigliotti-vs-trevor-smith-mma-news

Who is Hector Sandoval?

"Kid Alex" is the latest sub-155er to hit the UFC ranks out of Team Alpha Male. The 30-year-old flyweight is set to make his UFC debut this month against top contender Wilson Reis, following an injury to Demetrious Johnson. It's taken longer than anticipated for the #6 ranked 2012 BE Scouting Report prospect, but he comes to the UFC with a 12-2 record, his only losses coming to UFC vets Ulysses Gomez (in Sandoval's first pro bout) and Willie Gates (in the fight that propelled Gates into the UFC). Otherwise the former Tachi Palace Fights champ has a record comprised largely of middling wins. Even his best victories on paper, 6-1 Taylor McCorriston and 6-1-1 Benny Vinson have largely gone on to uninspiring results after fighting Sandoval. So, while he hasn't done a lot of can crushing, when he's faced his best opposition, Sandoval has lost. Outside of MMA, Sandoval was a standout high school wrestler.

What you should expect:

Sandoval strikes a bit like classic WEC featherweight-era Urijah Faber. Which is to say, he's probably a weight class too small for flyweight. Standing just 5' 2", Sandoval looks undersized even on the regional scene. However, like Faber, he makes up for that with a lot of blitzing, power-punches and blazing hand speed. He wings hook combinations to the head and body at every opportunity, and while he doesn't have quite the fluidity or trust of John Lineker, he's a high volume puncher with a real ability to hurt people.

The other side of this is his wrestling. While it seems technical enough to fit the bill, it may be overly reliant on power slams for takedowns. Because he's always the smaller man, Sandoval has had trouble in the past finding leverage to get the fight to the ground. And in a division where top control is amazingly hard to come by there's a chance it's not a skill he can depend on in the UFC. When he does get the fight to the mat, he's decent at being a grinding mauler from guard, but he doesn't show the typical Alpha Male takedown-to-sub-attempt-to-stand-up style and doesn't have much in the way of submission wins on his record.

What this means for his debut:

Sandoval may be able to hang with Reis standing, as both men have the same tendency for fast-handed power exchanges. However, Reis looked great there in his last fight (better than ever in fact) and if Sandoval can't dominate striking in this fight, he'll probably be forced to shoot sooner or later. When he does, I just don't see a ground game that is primed to hang with Wilson Reis. I expect Sandoval to put on a good performance and he has a real punchers chance, but I have to pick Reis by submission in this one.

 

[piglord]

the more i think about this fight, the more i think it's not going to be a typical lawler war, but more like lawler just totally outclassing woodley - a bit like the lawler ellenberger fight.

i think lawler's head movement and footwork are going to make it very hard for woodley to land clean in the first and he's going to get boxed up, with every round getting more brutal than the last. i think a r3 or 4 finish is likely.

 

[t6p]

To quote Nate Diaz, Woodley better hope he gets that knockout otherwise it's gonna be a fucked up night for him. A lot of this has already been said but if Woodley doesn't get an early KO how does he possibly win this fight? Robbie has so many advantages I feel like if anything he should be an even bigger favorite. Woodley's KO prop at +405 closer estimates his chances of winning than his moneyline at +175 IMO.

I think a lot of people, myself included, are weary after what happened to Rockhold and RDA, but on paper this is Robbie's fight to lose.

 

[Card]

Short notice:

Hector Alex Sandoval (0 days notice) - in for Demetrious Johnson, then Sean Santella vs. Wilson Reis

Ross Pearson (1 week notice) - in for Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Jorge Masvidal

Ryan Benoit (0 days notice) - in for Ray Borg vs. Fredy Serrano

 

[Card]

Doesn't look like it's a hometown fight for any fighter.

Travelling:
Kowalkiewicz - Poland
Krylov - Ukraine
Grabowski - Poland
Serrano - Colombia
Arzamendia - Paraguay
Brown - Austrailia

 

[EzFlyer]

Sorry if I offended anyone by comparing the Nunes-Tate fight with Woodley-Lawler... I thought they are pretty damn similar situations. Similar odds, similar challengers, similar expected outcomes. Of course they aren't carbon copy fights. I was just merely pointing out big value in Woodley R1 +850 compared to his ML of +175...

you definitely shouldn't apologize - as we discussed privately, i don't think it's a 1:1 comparison, but it is still a good thought and i might do the same

 

[EzFlyer]

Short notice:

Hector Alex Sandoval (0 days notice) - in for Demetrious Johnson, then Sean Santella vs. Wilson Reis

Ross Pearson (1 week notice) - in for Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Jorge Masvidal

Ryan Benoit (0 days notice) - in for Ray Borg vs. Fredy Serrano

what do you mean 0 days on sandoval? didn't they announce that a couple weeks ago? and borg got pulled last week

 

[EzFlyer]

Like Rivera at even odds. Think he should've been a slight favorite and that he's being underrated after coming off a string of losses. I thought he edged Pickett in his last outing but lost it with hometown judging. He also took that fight on short, albeit one month, notice.

He definitely has a clear power and speed advantage against Perez who seems to be even more hittable since adopting Alliance's erect light on the feet fight style of striking and moving (He moved to Alliance from Jackson's around July 2015). Perez was also caught and dropped in his last fight and I'm pretty sure Rivera will be able to connect clean a few times. Also like that Rivera maintains a much more active schedule while Perez is fighting at almost an average of once her year. As a young fighter though, he could have made some marked improvements and that was evident in his complete style change between his Lapilus and Caraway fight, but I don't think he has enough power to threaten Rivera or strong enough wrestling to dominate Rivera in the grappling. Haven't heard much discussion on this fight yet so I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts. After watching tape, I'm eyeing a moderate sized bet on Rivera. Really think Perez molding himself under Alliance's Cruz/Jury striking model will be detrimental to his success.

it's a pretty long string, though. he's 1-4 in his last 5 bouts (argue the pickett one if you wish), goyito is like 10 years younger, better endurance, more well-rounded.

i don't understand why you think perez training with cruz, etc will be detrimental. that sort of thing would help his defense, would it not? and that's a good thing against cisco.

 

[Card]

I don't include fight week. Because of medicals, travel, etc.

Sandoval was announced last week. Hence 0 days =)

 

[EzFlyer]

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-201-betting-odds/

 

[EzFlyer]

hitting O2.5 pearson-masvidal -185 for sure

*edit*

maxxed o2.5 -185 and -190 on it