I'm not suggesting he do it... I think Conor will use a lot more kicks to get the decision.lol come on dude that is a terrible terrible idea. Surely you're trolling...
I'm not suggesting he do it... I think Conor will use a lot more kicks to get the decision.lol come on dude that is a terrible terrible idea. Surely you're trolling...
Not sure if you saw the exchange between mkess and myself, but i'd agree round kicks to the leg won't work well. For the reasons you stated, plus the possibility its not a comfortable attack for Conor evidenced by his lack of use. BUT, the low line sidekick is a weapon to look out for. It was one of Conor's best landed strikes in the first encounter, and hes shown a propensity to use them in the past, most noticeably vs Holloway. At the very least I expect him to look for opportunities to land this more.Ok.. Im going into this Conor-Nate discussion (since my shitty bookies site has not released props for tomorrow).
Lets see the main arguments Im seeing here:
1) Conor can use legkicks to win points and edge rounds: I disagree. While Nate showed to be suceptible to legkicks from a southpaw in RDA, he adjusted much better against another southpaw in Michael Johnson, who clearly went into that fight to kick Nate lead leg out.
Nate checked a few and anyone who knows how much being leg-checked hurt (believe you me) realize that it was the reason MJ did not throw much in rounds 2 and 3. That makes me disagree with people that blamed MJ fight IQ as the main reason he lost that fight ("he got caught into Nate game" / "he should have sticked to the legkicks").
Can Conor land a few legkicks? Yes, but he is not a Thai boxer and I doubt it hurts nate.
Plus legkicks against an opponent with longer reach (specially if they are not hard enough to make him lose balance) make you really suceptible to being countered.
2) Conor can pick his shots and outwork Diaz: Emmm, no. You want to outwork a Diaz? Then you need to stay in his face and pressure him, threating him with TDs, etc. Other way you are not going to win that kind of fight. Specially if you have shorter reach.
Nate showed time and time again that his managment of distance is awesome against shorter guys. He is excellent at staying just 1 or 2 inch away from shots while landing his own. And when he gets punched he is good at rolling with them.
Conor showed he does not have the granite chin most of us thought he had so he cant hang around a volume striker with amazing cardio who is just going to throw punches non stop for 25 minutes. That kind of dogfight catches you at some point. Nate has good killer instinct, if Conor is hurt he is going to finish him.
3) Conor could not finish Diaz so Conor cant finish Diaz: That is a bold statement. Conor has the power, the timing and the speed to finish anyone. The fact that he did not finished Diaz in the first fight does not mean he cant do it in august 20th.
Nate is though as nails but nobody is impossible to KO. He is fighting a KO machine who while being a little smaller (lets not pretend that there are a huge overall size difference) so you cant rule that out.
4) Conor cardio sucks: While it sucked in his first fight (I honestly bought the "you saw me on salad, now watch me on steaks") and he basically checked out after 7/8 minutes I think he realizes that he needs to work on that and his cardio will be on point. Better than Nate? Shit no, but I dont expect him to gas out like a fat heavyweight again.
At these odds I like:
Nate ML +105 (I reckon it gotten better in another bookies)
Edge: Conor round 2 + 550
Nate Round 3 (+800) and round 4 (+1400) are good odds.
PS: Conor round 1 at +300 seems a little juicy and Nate is really though. Specially if he comes a little more cautious.
Im gonna tail you on that NOT Conor ITD line. Seems like the best play to me. I'm also on Diaz ML from earlier (2.5u).Not sure if you saw the exchange between mkess and myself, but i'd agree round kicks to the leg won't work well. For the reasons you stated, plus the possibility its not a comfortable attack for Conor evidenced by his lack of use. BUT, the low line sidekick is a weapon to look out for. It was one of Conor's best landed strikes in the first encounter, and hes shown a propensity to use them in the past, most noticeably vs Holloway. At the very least I expect him to look for opportunities to land this more.
Your second point is almost impossible to argue imo. Call me Joseph Zahabi, if i'm Conor's coach I'd be making him watch a guy like Eddie Wineland to emulate. Its feasible he has the speed to continuously move his feet at lateral angles, stay far away, and either look to counter or dart in with a combo when he sees an opportunity. But thats in theory, and imo he definitely doesn't have enough time to make style adjustments to win this over a 25 min fight
Your third point though....I think its safe to say there is a huge size differential. Mainly cause Conor stupidly wanted this at 170. Nate looks huge in pics, and is reportedly around 200 lbs. Also, not saying Conor can't finish, but reflective of odds I can't state enough how much I LOVE Not Conor itd. I think doctor stoppage is much more likely than a KO. I'd cap Not Conor itd around -350 easy. Smaller man, lesser striking vs notoriously (pun not intended) one of the toughest dude in MMA history.
I think most of us expect Conor to be better prepared for the pace. Know a few are on the over, i'm sure that factored into the decision.
Ok.. Im going into this Conor-Nate discussion (since my shitty bookies site has not released props for tomorrow).
Lets see the main arguments Im seeing here:
1) Conor can use legkicks to win points and edge rounds: I disagree. While Nate showed to be suceptible to legkicks from a southpaw in RDA, he adjusted much better against another southpaw in Michael Johnson, who clearly went into that fight to kick Nate lead leg out.
Nate checked a few and anyone who knows how much being leg-checked hurt (believe you me) realize that it was the reason MJ did not throw much in rounds 2 and 3. That makes me disagree with people that blamed MJ fight IQ as the main reason he lost that fight ("he got caught into Nate game" / "he should have sticked to the legkicks").
Can Conor land a few legkicks? Yes, but he is not a Thai boxer and I doubt it hurts nate.
Plus legkicks against an opponent with longer reach (specially if they are not hard enough to make him lose balance) make you really suceptible to being countered.
2) Conor can pick his shots and outwork Diaz: Emmm, no. You want to outwork a Diaz? Then you need to stay in his face and pressure him, threating him with TDs, etc. Other way you are not going to win that kind of fight. Specially if you have shorter reach.
Nate showed time and time again that his managment of distance is awesome against shorter guys. He is excellent at staying just 1 or 2 inch away from shots while landing his own. And when he gets punched he is good at rolling with them.
Conor showed he does not have the granite chin most of us thought he had so he cant hang around a volume striker with amazing cardio who is just going to throw punches non stop for 25 minutes. That kind of dogfight catches you at some point. Nate has good killer instinct, if Conor is hurt he is going to finish him.
3) Conor could not finish Diaz so Conor cant finish Diaz: That is a bold statement. Conor has the power, the timing and the speed to finish anyone. The fact that he did not finished Diaz in the first fight does not mean he cant do it in august 20th.
Nate is though as nails but nobody is impossible to KO. He is fighting a KO machine who while being a little smaller (lets not pretend that there are a huge overall size difference) so you cant rule that out.
4) Conor cardio sucks: While it sucked in his first fight (I honestly bought the "you saw me on salad, now watch me on steaks") and he basically checked out after 7/8 minutes I think he realizes that he needs to work on that and his cardio will be on point. Better than Nate? Shit no, but I dont expect him to gas out like a fat heavyweight again.
At these odds I like:
Nate ML +105 (I reckon it gotten better in another bookies)
Edge: Conor round 2 + 550
Nate Round 3 (+800) and round 4 (+1400) are good odds.
PS: Conor round 1 at +300 seems a little juicy and Nate is really though. Specially if he comes a little more cautious.
Dont forget what Nate said after the fight, that he wanted to take his time because he was not in top shape. Full camp Nate wont take his time at 202, more pressure from the first bell. This fight wont go to distance...
Dont forget what Nate said after the fight, that he wanted to take his time because he was not in top shape. Full camp Nate wont take his time at 202, more pressure from the first bell. This fight wont go to distance...
4) Conor cardio sucks: While it sucked in his first fight (I honestly bought the "you saw me on salad, now watch me on steaks") and he basically checked out after 7/8 minutes I think he realizes that he needs to work on that and his cardio will be on point. Better than Nate? Shit no, but I dont expect him to gas out like a fat heavyweight again.
Plekz, the leg kick point is bang on. I havent thought too much about this fight yet but that may have convinced me to take diaz with a r1 hedge.