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UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 11, 2016.

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  1. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Or Luke vs Bisping
     
  2. arrelione Red Belt

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    I've played TJ by UD as well but I am sweating over it.
     
  3. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Magny beat Gastelum, both standing and on the mat. Close fight sure, but most scored it for Magny. Magny did get starched by Larkin yes but after the Lombard fight how can anyone question his chin? I know styles can make fights, but...
     
  4. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

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    I have no action on Pyle/Garcia

    But if Garcia doesn't KO Pyle in the 1st round then he's either wrestling Pyle to a decision or he's gassed and Pyle finishes him late.

    I never trust Garcia in fights because of his gas tank and also he has a bad history of knee problems and it always never holds up. Plus maybe USADA.

    ---

    Saff/Kim

    Man is DHK is plodder. He's so damn heavy on his feet that a couple nicely timed leg kicks can fuck up his night. He also has no striking defense and I feel he can get headkicked here off the break from clinches. However, Saff has like 1 KO on his record and if DHK manages to get him to the floor he can ride out positions really well. And DHK is really good at zapping people's energy when riding out this positions.

    ---

    I'm taking Nunes by KO. She looks relaxed and happy while Ronda looks pissed at the world. At the weigh ins Ronda had her little bitch face on and she looked really emotional and tense. I think with that attitude that can really zap her energy and her gas tank kinda in the same sense that Cody is acting like a big brat when Dom insults him. Those emotions won't do them any favors and it kindve in theory makes them front runners in their respective fights to finish the fight early or bust. Nunes already has the better striking and Ronda stands super fucking square and Nunes should mix in a couple clean 1-2s. A few teeps here and there. If Ronda throws her and Nunes escapes an armbar attempt I think it'll go downhill from there for Ronda. I also believe it's possible that Nunes BJJ can come into play here as well.

    Now with all that said, it's WMMA :/
     
  5. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Im on the exact same
     
  6. Orion Brown Belt

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    My bad on the wording there. I don't think he goes out cold easily...when I say chin I'm more so referring to the fact that Magny seems to get rocked in most of his fights or have an "oh shit" moment. That scares me with a guy like Hendricks and the fact that a guys punch is usually the last thing to go.

    I also don't know how Magny would do with the Gastelum we saw at 200 and against Kennedy. Seems like a revitalized fighter. His boxing is on point lately.
     
  7. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Agree re garcia and stun gun. Took garcia ko r1 and pyle r3 and stun gun dec +275
     
  8. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    lol same picks you thief <cheer><cheer><cheer><cheer><cheer><cheer><cheer>

    hope weight missing cheater cowboy gets his shit kicked in
     
  9. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    If TJ fights as good as we expect him to, I don't see it being a "decision all day." More like TJ via decision a majority of the day, with a chance for him to put Lineker to bed early.
     
  10. Orion Brown Belt

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    People on Dong:

    Why should I take DHK over Saffiedine? DHK openly admits he changed his style to a more exciting one to try and avoid going to decision and his striking is just plain wild. Saffiedine's defensive style seems like a good counter to keep DHK at bay and ward off the majority of his smothering attempts.
     
  11. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    <TrumpWrong1>
     
  12. Don't be suckered into Ronda by the small line. there's a reason that line is small.... it opened at -320.
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I don't think there's a ton different with Gastelum. He's a good grappler, but clearly against other really good grapplers he can struggle. Kennedy (who's obviously naturally bigger granted) rode him like a horse in rd 1 and then gassed horribly. Magny was just plain and simple the better grappler and probably still is. And Kelvin's boxing is solid, but again he didn't run circles around Jhonny. The fight was way more competitive than people seem to remember (which naturally happens--the winner is usually remembered better and the loser worse than they actually were). But Kelvin struggled in rd 1 figuring out Magny's reach. Every time Magny would paw with his jab and then feint the straight behind it Kelvin would half step back and reset. He got basically no offense going on the feet because of it. And I think Jhonny is gonna have the same problem. There's guys who use the reach advantage better than Magny, but it's still there and he's shown he'll use it.

    And honestly it really wouldn't surprise me at all if Magny outgrapples Jhonny. Given all we've seen over the last couple days, if this turns into any type of war of attrition it will be tough to not HEAVILY favor Magny.
     
  14. t6p Brown Belt

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    With you on everything except switch Dong to the over. Let's do this.
     
  15. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    Yeah Dong and Honda are the only two I didn't bet on there, just picking them. I bet on the over instead of TJ too.
     
  16. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I have a feeling we are going to see a submission threat here if TJ gets his back. This is the first fight in a while where I think he knows there is some danger standing. I think he knows he can hang there, but if the opportunity presents itself, I see him jumping on the back like he used to do.
     
  17. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    Other one is Honda.
     
  18. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

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    I can't believe TJ decision hasn't budged even though his ML dropped what gives man? It's still at -odds. I don't fucks with that if there's no value. Lineker is a threat but the odds ain't showing no love. And end of day, TJ is hittable too man. Lines need some improvement before I make a preferable play on TJ. If nothing changes I might just throw some tiny action on Lineker by dec.

    I also hate that Dom decision is +130 and the fight goes dec is +100. On my own principles I will always go with the +100 which I fuckin hate that I have to.

    I may just put more stock into Dom -225 because Cody is still a young bull and you never know how those 4th and 5th rounds may make him act.
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Is 5d letting you go above...$0 on your bets now LOL?
     
  20. t6p Brown Belt

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    I've liked this matchup for Ronda since the fight was announced/before odds were set. But at this point I've said my piece on that fight. We'll see how it goes.
     
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