UFC 219 - Cyborg vs Holm - Vegas

[null]

Took a very small L last week after 3 back to back winning weeks

John Makdessi W
Misha Cirkunov L
Kate Jackson L

God bless Makdessi, shame on Cirkunov for quitting and I forgive Kate Jackson. I'm disappointed in the result but I'm not disappointed in the way i played, I went in there to win, I was prepared but i came up short, it happens. Not playing Emmet when i knew he was live was my biggest regret.

Favourites have had a strong year but underdogs are back in season and I'm seeing a lot of +money I like.

Mentally, I've never been sharper and i got plays for days, supremely confident.

 

[Gugabe]

Picture

Talking shit is 90% of the interaction in this board, though.

I don't see why Cyborg won't initiate grappling here big ground advantage.

Yeah. I like the Sub Prop @ +1200. Holm's not hugely chinny, IMO, and I could see a club-and-sub since Holm's sub-defense is dreadful.

 

[mrbaapt]

I don't see why Cyborg won't initiate grappling here big ground advantage.

The lady who fights super sloppy in 100% of her fights is supposed to try out the ground game?

 

[Sham5916910]

The lady who fights super sloppy in 100% of her fights is supposed to try out the ground game?

Worked pretty well against Lansberg. Just cos you haven't seen it much doesn't mean she doesn't have an exceptional ground game. She just hasn't needed to use it.

 

[chemmy]

I don't see why Cyborg won't initiate grappling here big ground advantage.

I'd be shocked if she didn't pursue the takedown here. That's not to say that she can't win standing, but it's clearly the path of least resistance.

 

[chemmy]

The lady who fights super sloppy in 100% of her fights is supposed to try out the ground game?

Try out the ground game? I'm pretty sure she's grappled once or twice before.

 

[EzFlyer]

Holm by decision is something I'm interested in. Cyborg will be power swinging at air for at least 15 mins, I'm suspecting she will gas badly in round 4.

Cyborg has never gassed, either .. she was throwing BOMBBBS with high pace in a couple fights that have gone deep.

Cyborg has shown that she can be measured vs Evinger.

Also true

 

[raketmannen]

Holm by decision is something I'm interested in. Cyborg will be power swinging at air for at least 15 mins, I'm suspecting she will gas badly in round 4.

Cyborg has shown zero tendencies to gas lately. Her coaches and people training around her says her cardio is unbelieveable, and she's closer to her prime than Holly who is 4 years older than Cyborg. Even Bethe landed clean on Holly




Would not like to see a Holly take another beating like this but that's a likely outcome imo

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Loving these main card dogs. Will be placing elite bets on Esparza and Barboza. Somebody's 0 has got to go, just the way it is.

Barboza

Khabib dodged the L that Tony was gonna give him back in February. All good though cause now I'm getting Barboza +230, 100% a live dog, very athletic, elite striking, high level TDD, Barboza is a hard man to get down, stats don't lie, last person to take him down was Michael Johnson over two years ago, getting a TD at the end of the 3rd round when Barboza was gassed and unsuspecting.

KO or decision, both are very possible, keep the fight standing and victory over Khabib is expected.

Khabib will be overvauled as long as he has an 0 on his record, but that 0 has to go and the L is due. Barboza is one of the worst match ups for Khabib in the LW division, thats just a fact and how can you not love Barboza at current odds or better. injuries, failed weight cut, inactivity thats what Khabib is about.

Esparza

Calvillo is getting overhyped, Calderwood fight was a lot close than people think but Calvillo edged out rounds with TD's. She's not taking Esparza down though. Esparza will most likely be taking her down several times, Esparza is the best technical wrestler in the division and she literally takes down everyone she fights.

Esparza has also improved her striking a lot since the JJ fight, she's capable of holding her own on the feet. She's a smaller 115er but she's very fast and keeps a fast pace.

I think this line is a joke, Calvillo is a solid competition but she doesn't deserve to be what she is over a former world champion. I favour Esparza to win, TD's will be there and people will underestimate her striking. Pearl Gonzalez took Calvillo down twice and that was less than six months ago.

Thats a former world champion

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I feel like Cyborg vs Holm is girl version of Luke Sanders vs Soukhamthath, but bigger mismatch.

Luke physically dominated everybody he fought with speed and power, but Souk had 4" reach advantage with pop for puncher's chance. Cyborg physically dominates everybody, except Holm is fighting a weight class up and only has a 2" reach advantage. And I'm not sure how hittable Cyborg's face is vs decent striker, but it's prob not more hittable than Luke's. And Holly is slow as fuck like Souk but is opportunistic with head kicks the same way Souk is opportunistic with knees.

I mostly mean this is in a good way because Luke was dominating until he got caught. I think Cyborg will be more dominant and have slightly lower odds of getting caught. Cyborg -500 or so feels about right.

 

[Oblivian]

I feel like Cyborg vs Holm is girl version of Luke Sanders vs Soukhamthath, but bigger mismatch.

Luke physically dominated everybody he fought with speed and power, but Souk had 4" reach advantage with pop for puncher's chance. Cyborg physically dominates everybody, except Holm is fighting a weight class up and only has a 2" reach advantage. And I'm not sure how hittable Cyborg's face is vs decent striker, but it's prob not more hittable than Luke's. And Holly is slow as fuck like Souk but is opportunistic with head kicks the same way Souk is opportunistic with knees.

I mostly mean this is in a good way because Luke was dominating until he got caught. I think Cyborg will be more dominant and have slightly lower odds of getting caught. Cyborg -500 or so feels about right.

It's insane to me that Luke Sanders is 1-2 in the UFC right now.

 

[t6p]

It's completely against my betting principles to back a sizable underdog only via a prop. If you're getting a good price on a moneyline like +260 in this case, it would really suck to back the winning underdog and lose money because they won via a method other than what you predicted. I always do a bigger bet on the moneyline in a case like this and a smaller bet on the prop.

This is such good advice. My biggest regret of the year was betting Rose by sub and not having anything on her ML, painful to think about. Another recent example is Benitez against Knight. A lot of us thought Benitez could only win inside the distance (me included) and got burned.

 

[Card]

Short Notice:
- John Lineker (in for Dominick Cruz) vs. Jimmie Rivera [1 month]
- Michal Oleksiejczuk (in for Gokhan Saki) vs. Khalil Rountree [3 weeks]

Ring Rust:
- Khabib Nurmagomedov 399 days (weight cut complications vs. Tony Ferguson)
- Carlos Condit 477 days (retirement because worries of suffering further head trauma, suffered a lot of concussions, constant headaches in the mornings)
- Matheus Nicolau Pereira 530 Days (USADA Violation vs. Yuta Sasaki)

Other:
- Louis Smolka used to get black out drunk leading up to fights up
- Michal Oleksiejczuk UFC debut (was supposed to fight Ion Cutelaba in Nov)
- Mark De La Rosa UFC debut (undefeated) vs. Tim Elliott

 

[Stunna77]

This is such good advice. My biggest regret of the year was betting Rose by sub and not having anything on her ML, painful to think about. Another recent example is Benitez against Knight. A lot of us thought Benitez could only win inside the distance (me included) and got burned.

I agree for the most part, but this match-up is one where I preferred Carla's dec at +415 to her ML of +260. I just don't see how she wins ITD. That said, now that her dec is +330, the difference isn't large enough to risk it.

 

[Stunna77]

Short Notice:
- John Lineker (in for Dominick Cruz) vs. Jimmie Rivera [1 month]
- Michal Oleksiejczuk (in for Gokhan Saki) vs. Khalil Rountree [3 weeks]

Ring Rust:
- Khabib Nurmagomedov 399 days (weight cut complications vs. Tony Ferguson)
- Carlos Condit 477 days (retirement because worries of suffering further head trauma, suffered a lot of concussions, constant headaches in the mornings)
- Matheus Nicolau Pereira 1020 days (USADA Violation vs. Yuta Sasaki)

Returning from TKO loss:
- Johny Hendricks (TKO by Boetsch) in June
- Corey Anderson (TKO by Manuwa) in March

Other:
- Louis Smolka used to get black out drunk leading up to fights up
- Michal Oleksiejczuk UFC debut (was supposed to fight Ion Cutelaba in Nov)
- Mark De La Rosa UFC debut (undefeated) vs. Tim Elliott

Did I miss Fatboy Hendricks annouce he is going up to 205 to fight Anderson or are you actually human Card?

 

[Card]

^ lol cut and paste error. This card is one of the few with no people coming from a TKO loss and most coming off wins.

 

[vkram]

Carla by decision is a possibility. Calvillo is an excellent grappler though and Markos had Esparza in some bad positions in their fight. On the feet I think Calvillo will have the advantage. Carla's route to victory is through lay and pray IMO, this was her strategy in her last 3 fights from what I remember. Whilst Calvillo has shown that she is competent on the feet and an obvious submission threat on the ground.

Perhaps Calvillo no scorecards, Calvillo sub or Carla decision are the appropriate plays here.

 

[quincy k]

Short Notice:
- John Lineker (in for Dominick Cruz) vs. Jimmie Rivera [1 month]
- Michal Oleksiejczuk (in for Gokhan Saki) vs. Khalil Rountree [3 weeks]

Ring Rust:
- Khabib Nurmagomedov 399 days (weight cut complications vs. Tony Ferguson)
- Carlos Condit 477 days (retirement because worries of suffering further head trauma, suffered a lot of concussions, constant headaches in the mornings)
- Matheus Nicolau Pereira 1020 days (USADA Violation vs. Yuta Sasaki)

Other:
- Louis Smolka used to get black out drunk leading up to fights up
- Michal Oleksiejczuk UFC debut (was supposed to fight Ion Cutelaba in Nov)
- Mark De La Rosa UFC debut (undefeated) vs. Tim Elliott

lineker was asking the ufc for this fight more than a month ago in the event that cruz pulled out

 

[Stunna77]

Agree with most Vkram, but I think Carla opts to try to strike more here, as her volume will make it close on the feet and will only look for td's late to try to steal close rounds. She used this strategy against Penne and Cyn is an even better grappler, so I see a similar gameplan here. I watched tape and was ready to play Cyn at around -150, but lines have dictated a carla play IMO. So far I am on the over and carla dec, will look at Cyn NSC, but expecting it to be rightfully juiced. Maybe cover a bit on Cyn Sub, but don't think odds will be too good on that either based on where the Over is set and that being the only way this ends ITD, imo.

 

[Card]

For anyone who can translate