UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

[Wiktoruspro]

Yeah. Agreed. I think Al's probably the better striker and harder hitter, but it's hard to know where he's at. I don't quite trust Felder's strength of schedule since Ray, Burkmann and Ricci all feel undervalued as wins by their recent trajectory. Even Oliveira was just a matter of surviving till Oli epicly collapsed, and I don't quite think sub defense and grit's gonna win him a fight against Al.

I might go with Felder here, he looked like a beast in his last fights and Al fought 2 times in 3 years...

 

[northsofia]

For sure the value is on Felder here, but i have the feeling that Al will surprise us and he will look like he has never been out of the game. Also think that his line will get better till fight time, but i will be glad to hear what do you guys think about this?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

For sure the value is on Felder here, but i have the feeling that Al will surprise us and he will look like he has never been out of the game. Also think that his line will get better till fight time, but i will be glad to hear what do you guys think about this?

Hard fight to call, AL for sure has better boxing but Felder is better in the clinch and his kicks are nasty.

 

[Gugabe]

Betfair has under 2.5 rounds +125 for Lauzon-Gruetz

Betfair and Sportsbet.com.au have the same parent company. I've applied a few times for a job there.

 

[mkess101]

Sportsbook.com has Lauzon/Gruetz Under 2½ at -130, fyi. I hit it to win 1u.

Did they get past their issues from a year or 2 ago? I remember reading they weren't paying people or something?

 

[t6p]

I mentioned some of the reasons why I like Iaquinta here earlier in the thread, but I think the best value is on his decision line at +3xx. Al is probably the biggest KO threat Felder has faced, but Felder is about as durable as they come and I think Al will play it fairly cautious here. I went a full unit at +350.

 

[mkess101]

I mentioned some of the reasons why I like Iaquinta here earlier in the thread, but I think the best value is on his decision line at +3xx. Al is probably the biggest KO threat Felder has faced, but Felder is about as durable as they come and I think Al will play it fairly cautious here. I went a full unit at +350.

100% agree that if you like Raging Al that his Dec line has more value than his ML. Felder incredibly durable.

 

[mkess101]

Felder has literally never once faced a one hitter quitter like Al. Dk why anyone would hit his dec line. More confused by those who are playing goes distance are barely + odds when these dudes are likely to scrap.

I would say Barboza has the stopping power (or close) that Al has when you factor in kicks.

 

[MT6ix]

Hard fight to call, AL for sure has better boxing but Felder is better in the clinch and his kicks are nasty.

I haven't watched any tape yet but Iaquinta is tough as nails.

Two things I'm going to look for in watching tape, when Felder throws leg kicks, does Iaquinta step in and land the overhand right like Holloway did to Aldo and how does Iaquinta defend in the clinch, Felder has some nasty elbows in the clinch/against the cage from what I remember.

Interesting fight and betting line.

 

[Shoulder]

Reminder for everyone who wanna play Ferguson.

Don’t.

Livebet him after round 2.

I will be super surprised if he wins r1. I’ll be pretty surprised if he wins r2. After that, if he makes Khabib work, it’s Tony Time.

 

[mkess101]

Flying knee on Dariush and spin kick on Etim are his only head shot KOs. Al has touched plenty of chins with his fists and put guys out. Just seems like a weird discussion when there is really nothing solid to conclude Felder has durability to eat a big punch from a hitter as heavy as Al

Barb landed 2 clean head kicks on Felder and he ate them easily. I don't remember Felder ever even being rocked, let alone close to finished. His only TKO loss was from a cut.

Similar to Jan/Jimi scenario imo. Jimi was easily the hardest hitter Jan has faced but Jan still ate his best shots (in 2 fights now). Until I see Felder crumpled, he gets the benefit of the doubt in my mind.

 

[piglord]

al ml -125
al dec +350

pretty outrageous difference despite most likely way he wins.

 

[mkess101]

Also with Al:

Diego and Joe were damaged goods by the time Al KO'd them. Diego more than Joe probably but still. Pearson is a nice KO.

Not saying Al doesn't have pop (I think he does), but let's not act like he's the LW version of Rumble. He has 7 stoppage wins out of his 12 career victories. Most over regional guys.

 

[Sham5916910]

Yup and Ross isn't very durable either. I like the over at current price.

 

[piglord]

Joanna dec, gruetzemacher/lauzon u2.5, ferguson sub or dec, iaquinta dec £51 returns £9230

gotta dream big.

 

[mkess101]

Barb has zero head kicks KOs. Jan fought guys like Gus, Cannonier, and Manuwa previously. Biggest puncher Felder has faced is Trinaldo who has one punch KO to his name vs Laprise. If its a small bet, sure, stab at it. But literally no evidential reason to believe Felder is durable enough to eat a punch from one of LWs biggest punchers.

It was a spinning kick, but I'm pretty sure that when Barb just about put Etim in a coma that's still a head kick.

Al blasting the ghosts of Diego and Joe is great (and a somewhat shopworn Pearson as well) but those are his only UFC KO's. Why are we acting like anything he hits is destroyed when he has 5 Dec wins of his 12 career victories?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Reminder for everyone who wanna play Ferguson.

Don’t.

Livebet him after round 2.

I will be super surprised if he wins r1. I’ll be pretty surprised if he wins r2. After that, if he makes Khabib work, it’s Tony Time.

Love this plan but I myself have some tiny stabs (as well as others I think) at Tferg itd, round 3,4,5. Just don't wanna miss out on some action in case 5d has issues with dynamic lines or something.

 

[mkess101]

Cause he clearly hits much harder than any puncher Felder has ever fought. You said Felder ate head kicks. Not spinning kicks. Hard to compare a flush spin kick across Etim's face to a head kick, which Barb has never KOd anyone with.

I get what you are saying, but seems like nitpicking about Barb.

And I'm still not sold on Al as some devastating wrecking machine power puncher. I think he has pop, but I'm not ready to annoint him Ngannou jr.

 

[t6p]

Cause he clearly hits much harder than any puncher Felder has ever fought. You said Felder ate head kicks. Not spinning kicks. Hard to compare a flush spin kick across Etim's face to a head kick, which Barb has never KOd anyone with.

I agree with you that Al is the hardest hitter that Felder has faced, but at the same time Felder is likely more durable than anyone who Al has put away. Al has the boxing and speed advantage here. I think he'll be looking to stay on the outside more and possibly mix in some takedowns. It seems like he'd be playing into Felder's hands by turning this into a firefight.

I think Al is capable of putting anyone in the division away, but I see decision as the more likely scenario in this fight and the price is much better.

 

[mkess101]

Are you ready to anoint him a harder puncher than anyone Felder has faced? Cause that's as far as you have to go to not make any sort of substantial play on Al dec or a goes the distance play lol. And hell, what makes all this goes distance talk even more of a risk is the same applies vice versa. On top of the infrequency of Al fights which are red flag number one, he also has not faced anyone with the type of power of Felder. No one has ever even tried to clinch Al and throw elbows when he gets in that pocket, which is basically a guarantee with Felder.

I'd say yeah he's most likely the hardest puncher Felder has faced. And I wouldn't make a "substantial" play on the prop no. In fact I like Felder at dog odds.

My point was that so far we've never seen Felder even rocked (albeit against lesser strikers save Barb). I think +335 Dec has more value than -125 ML for Al. That was my only point. Obviously you'd risk less on the prop than if you get his ML.