UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

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Before we get too carried away about Herrig's grappling I think it's worth noting that she was outgrappled by PVZ three years ago. She's for sure improved since and she looked great on the ground against Curran and Kish, but those aren't exactly high level grapplers. I really don't think there's any comparison between what Claudia and Herrig bring to the table, both bjj and wrestling wise.

KK made a stupid mistake and left her neck exposed as she tried to stand up against Claudia. But, she looked fine on the ground in her prior fights, including against Rose, who's also a better grappler than Herrig imo.
 
t6p said:
Before we get too carried away about Herrig's grappling I think it's worth noting that she was outgrappled by PVZ three years ago. She's for sure improved since and she looked great on the ground against Curran and Kish, but those aren't exactly high level grapplers. I really don't think there's any comparison between what Claudia and Herrig bring to the table, both bjj and wrestling wise.

KK made a stupid mistake and left her neck exposed as she tried to stand up against Claudia. But, she looked fine on the ground in her prior fights, including against Rose, who's also a better grappler than Herrig imo.
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I think Herrig's bjj is comparable to Claudia's at this point, although I think she's light years behind her in wrestling. Kish isn't a bad grappler, and that fight showed how Herrig has improved over the last few years with her grappling.

Curran is terrible though. I don't think we can really take anything away from that fight.
 
mkess101 said:
I think Herrig's bjj is comparable to Claudia's at this point, although I think she's light years behind her in wrestling. Kish isn't a bad grappler, and that fight showed how Herrig has improved over the last few years with her grappling.

Curran is terrible though. I don't think we can really take anything away from that fight.
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It doesn't always tell the whole story but Claudia has been a black belt since 2011 and Herrig is still a purple belt. I feel if Claudia had Kish in the same positions that Herrig did the fight would have been finished.

But I do agree that Herrig is a different fighter than she was after losing to PVZ and taking that year+ off. KK backers are going to be holding their breath if the fight goes to the ground. And while I do think the sub is unlikely, I think Herrig nsc and sub are solid plays at current prices.
 
t6p said:
It doesn't always tell the whole story but Claudia has been a black belt since 2011 and Herrig is still a purple belt. I feel if Claudia had Kish in the same positions that Herrig did the fight would have been finished.

But I do agree that Herrig is a different fighter than she was after losing to PVZ and taking that year+ off. KK backers are going to be holding their breath if the fight goes to the ground. And while I do think the sub is unlikely, I think Herrig nsc and sub are solid plays at current prices.
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I don't get the NSC price mainly. Because KK rocked JJ late in their fight we are supposed to believe she's some big hitter? Her last 6 wins are decisions. And Herrig has never been stopped in 20 pro fights. It's almost like the books have the line flipped honestly.
 
t6p said:
It doesn't always tell the whole story but Claudia has been a black belt since 2011 and Herrig is still a purple belt. I feel if Claudia had Kish in the same positions that Herrig did the fight would have been finished.

But I do agree that Herrig is a different fighter than she was after losing to PVZ and taking that year+ off. KK backers are going to be holding their breath if the fight goes to the ground. And while I do think the sub is unlikely, I think Herrig nsc and sub are solid plays at current prices.
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The mma ground game of Claudia is very overrated imo.
 
mkess101 said:
I don't get the NSC price mainly. Because KK rocked JJ late in their fight we are supposed to believe she's some big hitter? Her last 6 wins are decisions. And Herrig has never been stopped in 20 pro fights. It's almost like the books have the line flipped honestly.
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Agreed. I would be very surprised to see KK get a stoppage here.
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah, I'm really pissed this o/u got set at 1.5. That surprised me. I thought maybe we'd get 2.5 but have to pay a little juice. Instead, it's 1.5 but at +140 for the under. I still might play it. I think very good chance this doesn't see round 2 one way or the other. Joe either snags a sub or his chin is totally gone and he gets pounded out. Haven't pulled the trigger yet though.
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2.5 rounds (+125 on the under) at Sportsbet in Australia. Might have to chance the under, I wasn't looking at this fight at all but if it's 1.5 everywhere else under 2.5 is at least a good line
 
burge13 said:
2.5 rounds (+125 on the under) at Sportsbet in Australia. Might have to chance the under, I wasn't looking at this fight at all but if it's 1.5 everywhere else under 2.5 is at least a good line
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Wow I would SMASH that under if it was avail to me.
 
Felice Herrig scorecards= no action at +175 vs pillow fisted KK who hasn't stopped anyone in the UFC. (Actually opened at +190). 2u on that, great line.
 
NaughtyBoy said:
Who the hell is Renato Carneiro and Calvin Kattar ? why those guys in the main card ?
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dude, these guys already had 4 and 2 fights in the UFC in some pretty high profile fights. It's not the UFC's fault you are a casual.
 
Larthus said:
Made an account here just to reply to this. I've been capping fights for awhile now, anyone who puts any weight on Ferguson is an absolute moron.

Khabib will retire as one of the greatest fighters of all-time, perhaps even undefeated. He will only lose to someone with solid takedown defense and striking. He completely nullified Barboza, Ferguson will have nothing to offer on the feet. He's a sambo world champ, dude is not getting caught in some 10th planet BS sub. Tony Ferguson has glaring weaknesses. He's going to get mauled for 25 minutes. Do not touch him, bet Khabib.
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thx for blessing us with your wisdom, MMA jesus!
 
DarkneT said:
Don't think I've ever been more confident in such a high profile fight

If I had a million dollars I'd put it all on the Russian kid
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This is exactly why you don't have a million dollars.
 
Shoulder said:
Tricky, I like Al here but he has so little cagetime lately.
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Yeah. Agreed. I think Al's probably the better striker and harder hitter, but it's hard to know where he's at. I don't quite trust Felder's strength of schedule since Ray, Burkmann and Ricci all feel undervalued as wins by their recent trajectory. Even Oliveira was just a matter of surviving till Oli epicly collapsed, and I don't quite think sub defense and grit's gonna win him a fight against Al.
 
Betfair has under 2.5 rounds +125 for Lauzon-Gruetz
 
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