UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

[Gugabe]

I hope Holloway - Khabib somehow gets canceled too. It makes no sense for divisions and seems like a bad move for Holloway on long run. Getting mauled for five rounds will dimish his image so bad. Who cares about him fighting Ortega or Conor after that, when everybody just remembers him being punched to the face on ground ad nauseam.

Get Ortega in there. Either we get another Ortega asspull, or we get to see Ortega's face removed. Win-win.

 

[Yotsuya]

Get Ortega in there. Either we get another Ortega asspull, or we get to see Ortega's face removed. Win-win.

That would actually make sense. Or maybe Khabib pulls out and we get Max vs. Ortega!

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Here's my writeup for Caceres/Lobov:

Artem Lobov vs Alex Caceres

Striking:

Like the Dunham/OAM matchup, this is going to be another southpaw vs southpaw matchup. Although in essence this just is a mirror of orthodox/orthodox, southpaws generally are less familiar with this matchup. Obviously, you can expect Lobov and Caceres to have prepared but, all things being equal, the unfamiliarity of the stance matchup might end up favoring Caceres here.

It's no secret what Lobov's biggest weakness is as it's now a solid mma meme. Lobov has absurdly short arms. In order to strike effectively, Lobov has had to walk forward and rely on his solid chin to get him into range. With his pressure, he's hoping to get his opponents to open up and land stronger counter shots in exchanges. Sometimes he will be successful leading but it takes very good timing, which he has developed. Unfortunately, his upright march forward to his opponents also leaves him very vulnerable to takedowns, and eating really hard shots at range.

Caceres is a long rangy fighter that seems like a horrible style matchup for Lobov. However, throughout his career, Caceres hasn't really used his length very well. He sometimes will jump well into his opponents range before throwing something, and has eaten some counters for making this mistake. Luckily for him he seems to have improved on this in his recent fights. Against Knight's relentless pressure, he was able to stay out of Knight's punching range for the most part and potshot at range. This led to Knight abandoning the striking and taking the fight to the mat. Against a reasonably skilled boxer in Rolando Dy, he spent a lot of the fight in a range where he could land but Dy could not. Unfortunately for Bruce Leroy, there really was no distance where he could touch Wang Guan and be safe from taking damage. Guan not only had similar length, but superior foot speed, hand speed, and timing. He was just outmatched.

Despite getting tooled in his last fight, there's a lot of reasons to like Caceres in the striking matchup. Aside from the obvious reach advantage, which is already a steep hill Lobov always has to climb, Caceres has some nice footwork as well. Lobov was successful backing up Fili and landing shots, but Fili's footwork was very predictable, consisting of circling to one side or the other (and more often than not into Lobovs power rear hand). Caceres has more lateral movement, and it's goofy and unpredictable. This is going to be an issue for Lobov who is already very reliant on his timing, and won't be used to fighting a southpaw, as now he's going to be fighting an erratic and spazzy one on top of that.

There's a good chance Lobov won't be able to figure out Caceres' timing until well into the fight, and drop the early rounds. Or, Lobov may get a bit reckless which might lead to an easy takedown. Which gets us into:

Grappling:

As mentioned earlier, Lobov needs to fight tall in order to overcome his reach advantage. Combined with pressuring style and he's an easy target for a takedown coming forward. This was evident in the Fili fight, and you also were left with the impression that Cub could've easily taken the fight there too, if he wasn't so invested in trying to knock Lobov out.

Luckily for Lobov, Caceres doesn't seem very interested in grappling these days. The last time we saw him successfully mix in TDs was against Cole Miller 4 fights ago. I don't expect Caceres to come in looking to grapple, but it's still an option if Lobov is coming forward and Caceres is having difficulty with the striking. With his high center of gravity, Lobov is particularly vulnerable to trips (check out that sweet O Guruma that Cub lands on him late in their fight), and Caceres can mix in these with striking to score easy points or to reset the action.

In the clinch, Caceres is tenacious and will probably be busier. We saw him land some absurdly high knees on Rolando Dy with very little space to work. Because Lobov throws so hard to cover distance and still retain power, he's content to rest up in the clinch and this will be a bad idea against Caceres.

Intangibles:

The chin advantage clearly goes to Lobov. I don't know how he survived that head kick at the end of Rd1 against Filhi but he got up within seconds and didn't look shaky at all. Not sure how much longer that chin holds up but Caceres certainly isn't the one-hitter-quitter power puncher that you'd expect to punish Lobov's lack of defense. Caceres would need to land a perfect knee or a switch kick to the dome for a fight stopper. Compare this to Caceres getting clean clocked with a left hook by Guan in his last fight. That was clearly as saved by the bell as it gets. Still, Caceres eventually recovered to go the distance in that fight, so he will fight for your money.

I have avoided betting on Caceres in the past because he just doesn't have the mentality of a winner. Sometimes it feels like he's fighting an exhibition fight and just wants to show off his skills, rather than win fights. Going off memory, Caceres has stepped in to fight on short notice as well, so maybe there's another contributing factor. Luckily, Lobov isn't a winner either, as his 50/50 record clearly shows. Here the two have had time to prepare for one another.

Overall, if Caceres can play a successful outfighting game against Lobov, he will have control over all the positions in the match (distance, clinch, matwork). For Lobov, he's going to have to get Alex's timing very soon and hope to land something big. While this is entirely possible, it's probably not as likely as a relatively competitive striking matchup where Caceres lands more and stays out of enough trouble to earn a decision. As Caceres can also score points with TDs and in the clinch, I think he probably should be a bigger favorite, and was very good value at even odds.

Very good breakup with great writing and spot on arguments. I just put a couple more units on caceres. Like you said hes not a fighter im excited to bet on but he should take a decision 70pct+ of the time. Thank you

 

[Karmello]

5D lines opened with Khabib supposedly as a -505 favorite vs +365 on Max. By the time I looked minutes later Khabib was at -400. Who the hell was betting Max in this situation on a few days notice, up in weight against a bigger man, with the worst stylistic matchup possible and coming off an ankle injury where he wasn't supposed to return until the summer? Holloway hasn't even left Hawaii yet for crying out loud! I kept maximum betting what they would allow me and as it stands I have a total of $1750 on Khabib now between -350, -365, -380 and -400. If I get burnt on this so be it, but I give Max very little hope in this one despite being on Tony originally.

Nice man get that money. I haven't seen Khabib better than -450 on any of my books

 

[Levels]

JJ is the #1 SW in the world, she had an off night, it happens, flukes happen. JJ is an ABW, whats an ABW you ask? ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER!!! Wanna see how a real pro sports bettor makes moves? then I suggest you go check out Gamblou.com, I'm talking about a black belt in Sports Betting, pro level black belt, making real plays, real money moves. Listen, at the end of the day, still coming out on top, still getting money and just continuing to improve and grow #ABW #PolishPrincess

 

[timmyclax22]

Won’t be popular but I’m on Max at +330 to win 1.5u and will add at a better price.

We’ve seen quite a few people step in on short notice and win. They come in relaxed with no pressure and excited while their opponent is the one whose been preparing for a specific opponent for a few weeks or months and has to all of a sudden deal with it.

Yes, I understand Khabib style is takedowns and gnp so it might not matter but I think Max is his toughest opponent to date and is all pressure.

 

[raketmannen]

Won’t be popular but I’m on Max at +330 to win 1.5u and will add at a better price.

We’ve seen quite a few people step in on short notice and win. They come in relaxed with no pressure and excited while their opponent is the one whose been preparing for a specific opponent for a few weeks or months and has to all of a sudden deal with it.

Yes, I understand Khabib style is takedowns and gnp so it might not matter but I think Max is his toughest opponent to date and is all pressure.

I will bet Max out of loyalty, he won me about 6k in both his fights against Aldo. I don't give him much of chance though, he's only been training for a couple of weeks and this will be the first real wrestler he's fought since his winstreak started. Will wait to bet him, more money will come in on Khabib

 

[vkram]

I think it depends on how fit Max is. If his injury isn’t bothering him and his cardio is fine then he can put up a very good fight. His volume might cause Khabib some problems.

 

[Gugabe]

I think it depends on how fit Max is. If his injury isn’t bothering him and his cardio is fine then he can put up a very good fight. His volume might cause Khabib some problems.

I just see it being an issue of him not being able to throw volume off his back. I'm hoping for a relatively quick submission, since I feel like Holloway's going to be very difficult to TKO.

 

[Oblivian]

Max's best attribute for fighting Khabib would be his movement. If that is compromised, he's going to have a very hard time.

 

[Ukram]

Ray borg

-soon to be dad
-learned needs to be levels more to compete at best level (MM fight and loss)
-picked up few more 'things' about moreno and allowed him to prepare more
-wants a bonus, has to do something crazy due to stacked card
-jacksons camp, worked with 135 pound champ (7-0) and other people from world at jacksons
-weigh cut never an issue, weighed in first last time round due to confidence
-can take fight where ever he wants, suggest he can box also but expects a grappling and ji jitsu
war on the ground, wants a sub win.
-wants the pettits fight after.


Brandon Moreno

-loss was hard, especially for mexico city since his people don't like him after his loss
-traveling back between home and states was difficult, feels he won the fight but coach
suggest he was tired and maybe did not win it.
-feels relaxed, lots of energy in body and mind.
-Is clear from usada recent issue, not a fan of them due to their strict diet/maintainence
due to buying Mexican food. Less meat in diet now due to usada scare.
-Says borg is a tough guy, works very hard and his grapplings good. His striking improved.
Suggest he was tired from last fight, too many fights taken but feels amazing now and smiling.



Calvin Kattar

-6-7 week camp this time round
-quick turn around from last fight, right back in camp and short drive to event
-excited about Renan, says he made a mental error against ortega going for td but says the
match up is well so cant wait.
-trained out of joes with guys like rob font and combatzone guys.
-weight cut process, training camp never really stopped due to quick turn around
-always in shape and eats healthy just in case, wants to be back this summer again


Ashlee Smith

-out in las vegas, working at ufc performance institute with her friend carla esparza
-went to college to wrestle
-wants to get the win since she loves interview/media aspects afterwards
-says mentally she was not too prepared in her last loss and made a mistake
-due to last loss went to flyweight, tore some tendons in her arm due to armbar so got
healed up and decided to keep weight low, was easily 135 so went 125.
-says 125 is an open division
-says bec has few more fights then her, suggest shes been competing since school & college
but the match up is good, says bec is a boxer, shes a wrestler but can still box.
-shocked bec took the fight, reckons she will be stronger then bec
-says carla fought bec, she is very important to her here so she can get the win.


Micheal Chiesa

-at ufc performance institute doing his camp and training
-high moral, lots of tough guys here (sam sicilia, jesse james austin laurett, syndicate guys)
-says mario ref biggest mistake ever last fight, did not tap or verbally quit. Suggest refs
need to checked out more. hope never sees him again.
-had few injuries so has had time off to heal from them.
-says pettis has not lost a step here, fought murderers row of fighters (best of best)
matches up well against pettis.
-worked with many ji jitsu guys, implies take downs and clinch game, implies back taking and rnc
but won't give full game away.


Mike Rodriguez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-LlA9IvoZM
-wanted to get into ufc earlier but damaged his knee and cartridge so had to do rehab (no surgery)
-says clarks good, says he is better in stand up aspect. Says clark has experience advantage.
-trained with greg rubello, fabian, other 205ers and his wrestling coach, frank wrestling guy and training in general at joe lauzons gym.
-says 205 is a great division, everything is up for grabs.


Olivier Aubin Mercier
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJLdAdBwMc4
-discusses his recent drama with Gilbert fight which fell thru, re-scheduled fight with dunham
-Likes the match up with dunham, has studied him for a while with his skill set.
-trains at tri-star with same guys, went for small vacation recently but back to training was all
done at altitude so his cardio improved.
-Trained a carlson renzo gracie school for his bjj training.
-suggest its going to go to the ground at times but will be a stand up war also. Will do some cage
work, but game plan is coming in last.


Evan Dunhan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUibxW9JanQ
-9 year ufc career (back fighting sean sherk)
-learned so much, not letting bad things weigh him down knowing when to pull back and stop.
staying in an healthy shape makes all the difference in this game.
-Never had a draw, feels he won against darish but does not see it as a loss.
-easy switch for him since it matches up better for him against OAM
-Says OAM is a ground guy, but hes no stranger here, knows oam well with his pressure and cage
game, trips and back taking ability, says will be prepared.
-Wants 2 more fights 2018
-Running his gym and handling 2 daughters, hasnt lost since opening his gym so improvements
have come. Discusses mental aspect, losses and wins and not letting negative aspects effect him.
-Not planning on retiring just yet, wants to hammer it out till nothing is left mentality.
-Says improved since fighting smarter, not just banging away like early days.



Joe lauzon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ9xYvTZk6Y
-at his gym (lauzons mma)
-finished his wrestling pratice, was fun training with other guys on the same card (mike rodriguez)
-doing several different things with running his own gym, classes are still covered without him but he does teach classes too.
-always trying to improve on, win or lose he learns from it.
-match up is good, since both take and throw a punch, says has ji jitsu advantage but he has
good wrestling also. Says it does not always go well on the ground but hes learning constantly.
-joe proctor and many others at his gym to spar and train with, had rob font, katter recently etc
-has 8-9 ufc guys each sat morning so its packed and he has best resources.
-is 168, can cut weight tomorrow so not an issue, does not eat junk food can still enjoy pasta, rice
and not really get fat.
-sees fight starts off on the feet, plans on getting a take down and getting done. Knows has to be
fresh since it may not quite be that easy.

 

[1.11]

Do you guys think that Max will have the power to hurt or get Khabib's respect in the fight?

 

[michi972]

Over 2,5 in Katar vs Moicano 1,50 what do you think?

 

[levitation]

I dislike betting significant favorites but I Just had to put down +13 units on Khabib @ -425, so close to my favorite number 420. I think the analysis from others here is pretty spot on to make it a no brainer bet:
- Max said on 3/20 he is slowly recovering from an ankle injury, training limited and was hoping for a July/August fight and now is fighting on 6 day notice.
- Max has high fight IQ, top tier striking, volume output and ability to take a shot, but he has had favorable matches against strikers. He hasn't fought someone like Darrin Elkins who is usually more active with TD attempts. Just looking at fightstats without watching the fights Max was taken down 4 times by Dennis Bermudez and Conor Mcgregor. This was 5 years ago but it circulates back to the point that he has been fighting strikers and now faces the scariest Wrestler/Grappler/Smesh fighter in 145/155.
I think the only thing Max has going for him is that his volume, specifically his jab could really start to wear away the cardio on Khabib which could show up in rounds 4 and 5. So not too different from the Ferguson strategy I guess.
Would love to hear the contrarian angle or how Max pulls off this upset and becomes the GOAT. Its gotta be Holloway somehow gets a decision W with volume output. What other angle is there? KO?

 

[edhan]

Would love to know the timeline of Max's injury and recovery outlook at the time of the injury. I recall it was an ankle or foot? He withdrew from 222 what, like 3 weeks out so sometime in February? 2 month recovery for a fracture maybe? I have no clue

 

[turbozed]

Over 2,5 in Katar vs Moicano 1,50 what do you think?

Probably a good bet. Kattar isn't a finisher despite his nickname and his last fight. Moicano can submit guys, but he's more likely going to fight an outside kickboxing game.

 

[EzFlyer]

Holloway +400? Can't pass that up. Amazing value. I have this near a Coinflip.

Wish it wasn't short notice obviously, but I think the price would be much closer if it wasntw

 

[Oblivian]

I dislike betting significant favorites but I Just had to put down +13 units on Khabib @ -425, so close to my favorite number 420. I think the analysis from others here is pretty spot on to make it a no brainer bet:
- Max said on 3/20 he is slowly recovering from an ankle injury, training limited and was hoping for a July/August fight and now is fighting on 6 day notice.
- Max has high fight IQ, top tier striking, volume output and ability to take a shot, but he has had favorable matches against strikers. He hasn't fought someone like Darrin Elkins who is usually more active with TD attempts. Just looking at fightstats without watching the fights Max was taken down 4 times by Dennis Bermudez and Conor Mcgregor. This was 5 years ago but it circulates back to the point that he has been fighting strikers and now faces the scariest Wrestler/Grappler/Smesh fighter in 145/155.
I think the only thing Max has going for him is that his volume, specifically his jab could really start to wear away the cardio on Khabib which could show up in rounds 4 and 5. So not too different from the Ferguson strategy I guess.
Would love to hear the contrarian angle or how Max pulls off this upset and becomes the GOAT. Its gotta be Holloway somehow gets a decision W with volume output. What other angle is there? KO?

I'd say a slim chance at a guillotine.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I'm not going to be huge on Max, but I think he's getting written off WAY too easily for a guy who has comfortably cleaned out the 145 division and is only entering his prime at age 26.

Obviously the ankle hurts, but there is no proof that it is a MAJOR obstacle. If it was a significant injury and he wasn't in fighting shape, he likely doesn't take the fight. It's hard to say the exact impact, but it could be relatively minor compared to what people think.

Other than that two main points that fuel Khabib's domination:

1) He is a lowkey good striker, and mixes his strikes into his takedowns especially well. So a fighter with shaky striking defense like Barboza had no chance because he just wasn't fast enough to react and stay on his feet, and he was doomed. Wheres RDA at least had a competitive round 1.

2) RDA got smushed in rounds 2 + 3, but that's because Khabib is just relentless with elite cardio and eventually opponents get worn down and fold. But Max also has elite cardio, and it may be even better than normal with a lighter weight cut at 155.

This is the first fighter who can comfortably out-strike Khabib and keep up with a relentless pace for 5 rounds. Yes there is a significant concern that he can't defend Khabib's takedowns as well as say Jeremy Stephens, but that concern goes both ways. Max takedown D has been rapidly improving and you have to be concerned that Khabib can't get the fight to the ground and keep it there as easily as he did vs Michael Johnson + Barboza who are frankly much lower tier fighters than Max.

Ultimately Khabib is obviously the fave, and should probably be fairly juiced. But I don't think Max should be given < 20% odds against anybody, and there's some scenario where this fight involves more striking on foot than people expect and Khabib bettors are sweating their balls off.

 

[mkess101]

Yep I favor Khabib too but odds are off. Max at +375 to +400 has to be bet.