UFC 228 - Till V Woodley

MacPherson911 said:
holy shit that like, what, -900? no confidence in Davis
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And rightfully so. Davis sucks lol. But I rather see Davis winning than Montano. So if anyone wants to throw "holm upset money" better throw it on Davis. At least men can knock each other out
 
I feel very confident that Sterling/Stamann is going to the cards.
 
I'm going to start a personal challenge this weekend.

I REALLY benefit from tangible goals.

I currently have 960$ in my 5D account.
I am going to turn this 1K into 50K in two years or less.

I only bet on MMA or the NFL.
 
I know a lot of you are gonna say "it's more fun if you bet" lol but I'm looking for some advice on something.

I use mma betting mostly to supplement my income. My base salary is livable but not very much, and it's nice to have an extra few hundred (at least) every month, and I always make sure I don't bet more than I can afford. Never ruined myself with losses, thankfully.

I profited about $1300 from the Lincoln card. Kept $1200, and left $100 in my book to mess around with. This week I've brought that $100 up to about $800 on random bets and throwing a few bucks into slots out of boredom. I'm also about to receive a $2000 bonus at work in a few days.

Should I just keep my money and watch 228 for fun? Or try to maximize my profits while risking a loss? There's a lot of events where I DIDN'T end up with $800 or more, and it would suck to lose it while I'm riding some good wins.
 
rev0lver said:
I know a lot of you are gonna say "it's more fun if you bet" lol but I'm looking for some advice on something.

I use mma betting mostly to supplement my income. My base salary is livable but not very much, and it's nice to have an extra few hundred (at least) every month, and I always make sure I don't bet more than I can afford. Never ruined myself with losses, thankfully.

I profited about $1300 from the Lincoln card. Kept $1200, and left $100 in my book to mess around with. This week I've brought that $100 up to about $800 on random bets and throwing a few bucks into slots out of boredom. I'm also about to receive a $2000 bonus at work in a few days.

Should I just keep my money and watch 228 for fun? Or try to maximize my profits while risking a loss? There's a lot of events where I DIDN'T end up with $800 or more, and it would suck to lose it while I'm riding some good wins.
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keep up on this forum and do a bit of your own research, including youtube videos and other online content, watch some film and you'll keep making money, you dont have to risk it all either, just do what you feel comfortable with
 
matthew55 said:
keep up on this forum and do a bit of your own research, including youtube videos and other online content, watch some film and you'll keep making money, you dont have to risk it all either, just do what you feel comfortable with
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Oh I do, I spend a lot of time studying fights and overall have a good pick rate. I can manage a positive return on most events. I'm just thinking if it's worth taking a risk at a point where I don't need to.
 
rev0lver said:
I know a lot of you are gonna say "it's more fun if you bet" lol but I'm looking for some advice on something.

I use mma betting mostly to supplement my income. My base salary is livable but not very much, and it's nice to have an extra few hundred (at least) every month, and I always make sure I don't bet more than I can afford. Never ruined myself with losses, thankfully.

I profited about $1300 from the Lincoln card. Kept $1200, and left $100 in my book to mess around with. This week I've brought that $100 up to about $800 on random bets and throwing a few bucks into slots out of boredom. I'm also about to receive a $2000 bonus at work in a few days.

Should I just keep my money and watch 228 for fun? Or try to maximize my profits while risking a loss? There's a lot of events where I DIDN'T end up with $800 or more, and it would suck to lose it while I'm riding some good wins.
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New event new opportunities, I never base my plays off how I did the week before
 
edole said:
Perry implied on Twitter that he has been doing a lot of sparring with Diego this camp, which makes a lot of sense, but has me worried for Diego.

I imagine their sparring sessions to be pretty lacking in technique and with an over emphasis on power shots.

Diego may have the worst chin in the UFC at the moment.
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ellenberger's might be worse
 
This event sucks betting wise because many fights can go either way.
Im only confident in Abdul,Valentina and Till. (Maybe Aldana but You talked me out abit of the bet )
I might take a stab at KK, she might get the job done and it will be a fuckin war.
Doing a birthday party next week so Im not going big on this event to not ruin my mood haha <45>
So overall I like for this event :
Darren Till- most value and big chance to win
Valentina - to much juice :( but she will win
Abdul will ko overrated Price
Aldana is bigger and this should be a competive fight
KK <3
<PandaHi75>
 
Is there any good example of a guy who trains at random place with no elite known training partners and has very good wrestling?

Who is Till training with? Some bums from Liverpool? He beat WB because of his deep muay thai backround and size. His wrestling can't be on a very good level. I'd be shcoked if he can stop Woodleys takedowns.
 
rev0lver said:
I know a lot of you are gonna say "it's more fun if you bet" lol but I'm looking for some advice on something.

I use mma betting mostly to supplement my income. My base salary is livable but not very much, and it's nice to have an extra few hundred (at least) every month, and I always make sure I don't bet more than I can afford. Never ruined myself with losses, thankfully.

I profited about $1300 from the Lincoln card. Kept $1200, and left $100 in my book to mess around with. This week I've brought that $100 up to about $800 on random bets and throwing a few bucks into slots out of boredom. I'm also about to receive a $2000 bonus at work in a few days.

Should I just keep my money and watch 228 for fun? Or try to maximize my profits while risking a loss? There's a lot of events where I DIDN'T end up with $800 or more, and it would suck to lose it while I'm riding some good wins.
Click to expand...

I'm going to give some advice, and keep in mind this is only the advice of one person:

If you have a question in your mind that you'll regret losing some of your $ if you do, then pass. If you for example can put $200 of that $800 in play and will still feel just fine if you were to literally lose every bet and the entire $200 (unlikely that would happen, but hypothetically if it did), then do that.

My other bit of advice is to do something that I know for a fact (based on the way people---including myself---post here) a lot of people here have a hard time doing from a discipline standpoint. And that is to not approach it like "Should I bet on this card or not and risk my money?" but to approach it purely from a "Do I see inherent value on specific fights on this card that I feel is too good to pass up?" Basically, in looking at the lines, how much value do you really see on this card? If you see 3-4 fights that have huge value in your eyes, then maybe make plays on them. If you don't see anything that jumps out as having big value, maybe just take a pass and watch for fun.

It's also easy for me to offer advice from a completely different financial situation. On that front, we are all in different boats. I'm most likely WAY older than you and if I have a horrible night the $ doesn't affect me at all. I'm still pissed because it means either I was really unlucky, I capped like shit, or most likely a combination of the two. But from a financial standpoint, nothing I do with my betting can really affect me. I could potentially have a different view if I was using the $ to pay for things in my life.
 
just found something funny, ohmbet offers lines on whether or not till makes weight. yes is -166 and personally i can't imagine him messing up this opportunity.

edit: he looks slimmer than usual here:

 
rev0lver said:
I know a lot of you are gonna say "it's more fun if you bet" lol but I'm looking for some advice on something.

I use mma betting mostly to supplement my income. My base salary is livable but not very much, and it's nice to have an extra few hundred (at least) every month, and I always make sure I don't bet more than I can afford. Never ruined myself with losses, thankfully.

I profited about $1300 from the Lincoln card. Kept $1200, and left $100 in my book to mess around with. This week I've brought that $100 up to about $800 on random bets and throwing a few bucks into slots out of boredom. I'm also about to receive a $2000 bonus at work in a few days.

Should I just keep my money and watch 228 for fun? Or try to maximize my profits while risking a loss? There's a lot of events where I DIDN'T end up with $800 or more, and it would suck to lose it while I'm riding some good wins.
Click to expand...

What @mkess101 said is good advice but I’ll throw in my two cents.

IMO you can’t look at gambling as a short term thing. Even the very best cappers are going to have losing events and even losing streaks. If you’re not willing to lose money in the short term, then you shouldn’t be betting.

That said, from what I’ve seen, you have good insight and I think you have what it takes to be a long term winner. My advice would be to establish a bankroll and unit size (typically 1% of your total bankroll), then be patient. Limit your risk on any singular outcome to 5u. Even though your initial winnings will be smaller than what you’re used to, you’ll eventually work your way up to bigger bets if you stay disciplined.
 
Danis_champ said:
Is there any good example of a guy who trains at random place with no elite known training partners and has very good wrestling?

Who is Till training with? Some bums from Liverpool? He beat WB because of his deep muay thai backround and size. His wrestling can't be on a very good level. I'd be shcoked if he can stop Woodleys takedowns.
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Conor Mcgregor. SBG is overrated
 
t6p said:
What @mkess101 said is good advice but I’ll throw in my two cents.

IMO you can’t look at gambling as a short term thing. Even the very best cappers are going to have losing events and even losing streaks. If you’re not willing to lose money in the short term, then you shouldn’t be betting.

That said, from what I’ve seen, you have good insight and I think you have what it takes to be a long term winner. My advice would be to establish a bankroll and unit size (typically 1% of your total bankroll), then be patient. Limit your risk on any singular outcome to 5u. Even though your initial winnings will be smaller than what you’re used to, you’ll eventually work your way up to bigger bets if you stay disciplined.
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Thank you (and to @mkess101 ). I do feel I can usually profit off an event. I keep a file tracking my pick rate for each one, and realized I could have a decent bankroll by now if I didn't waste so much time in the past with failed parlays (I'm off that now). I've had 10 for 12 and 11 for 12 nights where I took home nothing.

I definitely don't spend more than I can afford, and I've never let it affect rent, bills, etc. But life's life and it's nicer to take my boyfriend out to a nice dinner rather than to lose that money on a fluke ko. My finances are looking up for the next couple months, I'm looking at a couple more bonuses by October, so I'm gonna take half of this $800 for this event and see what I can build with it.
 
Danis_champ said:
And rightfully so. Davis sucks lol. But I rather see Davis winning than Montano. So if anyone wants to throw "holm upset money" better throw it on Davis. At least men can knock each other out
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Agreed but for anyone wanting to take a stab on Davis, he's MUCH more of a volume guy than a swing-for-the-ko kind of guy.
 
piglord said:
just found something funny, ohmbet offers lines on whether or not till makes weight. yes is -166 and personally i can't imagine him messing up this opportunity.

edit: he looks slimmer than usual here:

Click to expand...

smart to miss if you get the shot off a win anyways. really dumb to miss in the title shot. i think he makes weight 90% of the time here. a recent failure helps here. he cant pretend there is no problem to address
 
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