1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Roads55, Aug 29, 2018.

  1. Ryan Kelly Green Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2017
    Messages:
    967
    Likes Received:
    395
    I miss EzFlyer. Someone tell him to come back asap.
     
  2. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2017
    Messages:
    9,739
    Likes Received:
    3,224
    Location:
    Wash
    Rip the GOAT.
     
  3. burge13 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2015
    Messages:
    1,601
    Likes Received:
    331
    Volkov is the more technical striker, I mean there would be guys here more technical than Lewis but it isn't like Volkov isn't hittable. On top of that, it isn't like Lewis can't stop fights at any time. If this wasn't at HW i'd agree entirely but have to be careful betting the big boys...
     
  4. Ham Socks Professional Fighter

    Joined:
    May 8, 2011
    Messages:
    6,996
    Likes Received:
    387
    Would fdngtd be the safest bet? I hate betting on HW fights.
     
  5. eataface Green Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2007
    Messages:
    968
    Likes Received:
    0
    There really should be a new moderator
     
  6. piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,904
    Likes Received:
    319
    Location:
    Sewers
    i actually think a volkov stick and move decision is the most likely outcome.
     
  7. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,206
    Likes Received:
    926
    I don’t think so. -190 doesn’t have much value imo. Beast is pretty hard to get out of there. Volkov isn’t a big finisher.
     
  8. burge13 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2015
    Messages:
    1,601
    Likes Received:
    331
    Pretty much agree with what everyone else said (Volkov winning by decision most likely). If it ends ITD I think Lewis is finishing so I'd take his +145 over -190 if you like FDNGTD...
     
  9. FightGameTheory White Belt

    Joined:
    May 10, 2018
    Messages:
    29
    Likes Received:
    0
    The majority of Beast’s losses are finish losses, including his last 3 losses. Even in fights he’s won he’s been hurt pretty badly. I could easily see Volkov putting an accumulation-beating on him and getting the finish himself. I think FDNGTD is valuable at -190, and I think the weird fight that was Ngannou Lewis caused a bit of an over-correction in opinion.
     
  10. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    874
    Likes Received:
    0
    Just here. Although don’t really post much. Will try get involved in any dk talk
     
  11. turbozed Red Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2006
    Messages:
    9,581
    Likes Received:
    18
    Location:
    Kakapoopoopeepeeshire
    Not so fast there young whippersnapper. A few of us older fellas still around.

    Agree with you completely about finding consistent informed opinions on mma betting. I actually appreciated Ham Socks' ultra-hot-take. He definitely went overboard with the Eddie Alvarez not UFC caliber comment, but the rest of it was at least a very different perspective with some backing. Whether or not you agree is not the point. I'd rather have someone give a different perspective that I'd consider for a bit and then discard, than to get blindsided by something I never considered at all. In the end, this forum is about making money and part of that is making each other consider things we've never thought about before.
     
  12. turbozed Red Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2006
    Messages:
    9,581
    Likes Received:
    18
    Location:
    Kakapoopoopeepeeshire
    To add onto that, recency bias is going to be a big factor here. In Khabib's last fight, you saw him 'struggle' to hit takedowns after the 2nd and he spent a lot of time on the feet. Many people imagine him doing the same against Conor and imagine how bad that would be for him. On the other hand, Conor's last MMA fight had him managing range against Eddie perfectly. No doubt some people imagine Conor's footwork and distance mangement can get him a KO without any tie ups or clinching at all. Yes that might happen in this fight but the whole history of MMA has demonstrated that no MMA fighter can consistently avoid high level grappling at the elite levels. Even next level strikers like Adesanya get in clinches at least a few times a round.

    I think the above bias is heavily influencing the line and we might be getting a small discount otherwise. Imagine what the line would be if Khabib just took Iaquinta down in the 3rd and pounded him out or if Conor had one slip up and ended up on his back against Eddie.
     
  13. Lightbringer Yellow Belt

    Joined:
    May 14, 2018
    Messages:
    223
    Likes Received:
    0
    Agreed. The recency bias is ridiculous. If Khabib fought him after Nate Diaz one, Khabib would be -500.

    Al Iaquinta actually has very well rounded wrestling. He limp legs well on low singles, whizzers well, generally goes not get backed up behind the black lines. He pummels well. And Khabib still had 6 takedowns in that fight. Conor does not have a getup game like Al does either and the only reeason Conor got up against Mendes was because Mendes went for a desperation guillotine because he knew he was tiring out. People act as if that was a bad performance by Khabib, but it just made me think Khabib was even better because it showed he had incredible five round cardio.
     
  14. turbozed Red Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2006
    Messages:
    9,581
    Likes Received:
    18
    Location:
    Kakapoopoopeepeeshire
    Agree and I'll even add on to say that we likely did not see any full effort attempts to takedown Iaquinta after the 2nd. Obviously it has to do with a good wrestling game by Iaquinta, but also had to do with the fact that Khabib felt very comfortable just jabbing Iaquinta's face off. He already had Al terriifed of getting taken down so much that Al was willing to just lose on the feet than get pummeled on the ground. Conor's obvious superiority in striking means Khabib will be more likely to chain wrestle and go for 2nd and 3rd effort attempts. We've seen half-hearted Khabib TDs get stuffed recently but no full-effort ones while both fighters were fresh (the stuffed TDs against Barboza and Johnson were also when Khabib had already broken them both for the most part earlier).
     
  15. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2017
    Messages:
    9,739
    Likes Received:
    3,224
    Location:
    Wash
    I know I know it sounds craaaaaazy but hear me out. Here's a little video made around the time Ferg pulled out and Holloway was announced as his replacement. In this video is a translated interview with Khabibs father and he says some interesting things about his gameplan with Tony that kinda reflected how he acted in the Iaquinta fight. Khabibs dad suggested if the couldn't secure takedowns in the latter stages of the fight he would stand up to "put on a show"

    Edit* The whole video is really interesting but the link below should begin at the interview portion.

     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2018
  16. All I'm saying is look into it.

    But in all seriousness, that's a good find.

    Do you think he'll wear on Conor for a few rounds and try to KO him standing? That would be the ultimate fuck you to Conor and the UFC.

    I know it's far fetched, but I could honestly seeing him just beating the fuck out of Conor for 2 rounds, but not enough so to finish him. He'll take him again in round 3 for a few minutes to gas him out even more, stand up, and attempt with all of his heart to KO him standing.

    Or maybe I'm drunk and need to go to sleep.
     
  17. So Paris sportsbook has prop bets for this event, very surprisingly.

    Pettis KO and sub are both +1000.

    If he wins, it's likely it'll be by KO or submission.

    He submitted Benson for the first time, and Gilbert as well -- but I don't think either have close to the level of BJJ as Tony.

    So KO seems to be the way to go. I'll take a small stab at it.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 5, 2018
  18. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2017
    Messages:
    9,739
    Likes Received:
    3,224
    Location:
    Wash
    Some responses in the quote. Just to clarify, I'm not betting this fight, I would rather watch the fire get out of control lol. Although, if you want my opinion I think the line is too short. Khabib should be at the very least -200.
     
  19. raketmannen Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2016
    Messages:
    3,515
    Likes Received:
    0
    Evinger ITD +850, Evinger submission +1600 on betsafe. I think both those lines are pretty ridiculous. Betting 50$ on each
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    40,347
    Likes Received:
    7,273
    Young whippersnapper? Man that might be the nicest thing anyone has called me in a long time! You made my week man LOL! But yeah I know there's some other old timers like me, guess I should have said I'm AMONG the old school guys.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.