UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis (Nov 3, 2018)

[Dooze]

Don't know much about Arce, why is he such a huge favourite over Moraes?

Is Arce a beast relentless wrestler that will shun fighting on the feet here and just be getting Moraes down and working his way to a submission?

Moraes isn't the best in the world on the feet and slows as the fight goes on but unless Arce is going to be going in full grapple mode and can put this fight wherever he wants it I might have a punt on Moraes if this is a fight that might be on the feet for large portions.

From what I remember of Moraes he has power and is a legit striker, he just slows down and has faced mostly grapplers in his few UFC fights.

 

[theTKDguy]

I'm thinking an easy 3-team parlay of Adesanya, Cormier & Eubanks. 3 big favorites who should be able to win or at least have the skillset to win easily. $129 bet for a $100 win. Opinions???

Cormier is risky and pays peanuts. I'd go with lando, branch or arce instead of him

 

[theTKDguy]

Cormier wins via tko or sub? I'd say tko.

 

[FightGameTheory]

Cormier wins via tko or sub? I'd say tko.

Agreed. I don’t think he’ll mess with trying to take his back when he should be able to comfortably pound him while riding. Also, I think there’s a really good chance for a DC (T)KO while it’s standing.

 

[KBE6EKCTAH_CCP]

joined u guys and put 300 on rogerio de lima.

im betting on brunson and lewis. might add jacare to it but +160 seems really fair. i wanna believe he has a 50/50 shot but there's the age thing which makes u cautious.

Hespect.
How much are you staking on both these bets, in $ please?

 

[danareem]

'Returning the favor. Found some great value: Lewis vs DC starts round 2 at 1.71 odds. DC knows that Lewis' power is real and really doubt he is going to charge in Brunson style. Even if DC does land a takedown in round 1 I think Lewis' gastank can keep him alive for a round.

edit: not to mention DC has one r1 finish in his past 9 bouts. And that was vs Stipe.

Bet365 has DC round 2 +300, round 3 +800 - combined both for +177 odds

 

[LiquidNuke]

Just how far gone is Ben Saunders, folks? There's no way I'm paying -600 outright for Good, a man who at this point only fights once every other year... Even the ITD line on the seemingly increasingly fragile Saunders being stopped is -200 ish...

Is there any good way to bet this fight or what?

 

[Stunna77]

Why Jacare NSC? I know Weidman doesnt have the best power, but Jacare getting kinda old, can’t trust his chin that much anymore. And I don’t think Jacare can finish Weidman too easily. Maybe club and sub, but Jacare isnt nearly the same KO threat as Luke, Yoel, or Moose

Jacare won't get submitted, so there goes one avenue (Wiedman's best), Jacare has a very patient striking style where he doesn't open himself up a lot, and he still carries big power as his recent KO of Brunson showed. I just see little finishing opportunities for Weidman unless Jacare totally gasses, but even then a more potent puncher with better cardio in Gastelum arguably still lost the 3rd round. Weidman has been KO'd 3/4 and dropped badly in the only other fight against Gas. Jacare scoring a KO or club and sub would not surprise me in the least.

 

[Stunna77]

Just how far gone is Ben Saunders, folks? There's no way I'm paying -600 outright for Good, a man who at this point only fights once every other year... Even the ITD line on the seemingly increasingly fragile Saunders being stopped is -200 ish...

Is there any good way to bet this fight or what?

Personally smashed fight DNGTD when it opened at -175 and -195, then Good ITD around the same odds, then Good KO around the same odds, as well as Good rd 2 +400. If you are looking strictly for value I think Good rd 2, beleive it is still +350 might be the way to go. Saunders is game for rd1 and then always gets finished in rd2. In fact, all 7 of his stoppage loses have occured in rd2. Good's boxing is way too good and Saunders defense way to bad to not get lit up at some point.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Personally smashed fight DNGTD when it opened at -175 and -195, then Good ITD around the same odds, then Good KO around the same odds, as well as Good rd 2 +400. If you are looking strictly for value I think Good rd 2, beleive it is still +350 might be the way to go. Saunders is game for rd1 and then always gets finished in rd2. In fact, all 7 of his stoppage loses have occured in rd2. Good's boxing is way too good and Saunders defense way to bad to not get lit up at some point.

What do you think about Vanatta stopping Frevola?

We all saw Polo put him away in under a minute just a few months ago, and this is such a step down in class for Vanatta I'm having a hard time seeing how he doesn't shine... Frevola was also badly hurt twice in the first minute of his win on the Dana White Contender show, by body kicks.

Frevola is an all or nothing do or die pressure fighter who blew his wad after one short first round barrage against Flores... I think Vanatta is a couple levels above the very regional level Frevola and think he'll look great again here, perhaps more so due to the poor quality of Frevola than anything else.

 

[zeckdo]

Cormier wins via tko or sub? I'd say tko.

I think Cormier will get mounted crucifix and finish exactly like the Volkan fight.


Lyman Good shouldn't be -630, he should win, but most of his losses are to strong wrestlers, not saying Saunders is a good wrestler, but we all know his BJJ is legit. Saunders sub should be the same as his ML, only way I see him winning. his sub is +1335...
Something about Tiger Schulman guys... they're not that good.

-505 Cormier ITD is the steepest ITD line I've ever seen. I really don't think anyone should lay that juice on this line, his -700 ML isn't that much different, DC could come out content to wrestle for 5 rounds and not hurt his hand any worse than it is.

Izzy by decision +310 mannnn that's temping. Izzy is smart as fuck, he knows Brunson has power, he's not going to be ultra aggressive and chase a knockout. He will be content to jab and teep Brunson all night to a 30-27.

 

[Sauna]

Fading Knight again seems like a good move.

Roxanne might have better tactics and strategy for this one.

Big dc and Israel fan but the odds are mad and they have a good chance losing here so im fading both.

 

[KBE6EKCTAH_CCP]

I'm thinking an easy 3-team parlay of Adesanya, Cormier & Eubanks. 3 big favorites who should be able to win or at least have the skillset to win easily. $129 bet for a $100 win. Opinions???

I think the math on that is not good, TBF. Lewis and Brunson are per see "high variance" events.
I am a noob at betting but this feels to me like a sucker's play. No offense of course.

 

[Stunna77]

What do you think about Vanatta stopping Frevola?

We all saw Polo put him away in under a minute just a few months ago, and this is such a step down in class for Vanatta I'm having a hard time seeing how he doesn't shine... Frevola was also badly hurt twice in the first minute of his win on the Dana White Contender show, by body kicks.

Frevola is an all or nothing do or die pressure fighter who blew his wad after one short first round barrage against Flores... I think Vanatta is a couple levels above the very regional level Frevola and think he'll look great again here, perhaps more so due to the poor quality of Frevola than anything else.

Only action on that fight is Lando rd1 +225. Lando's M.O. is to come out hot and like you mentioned Frevola has a tendecy to try to do the same with shit defense. Can't trust Lando after rd1 though.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Only action on that fight is Lando rd1 +225. Lando's M.O. is to come out hot and like you mentioned Frevola has a tendecy to try to do the same with shit defense. Can't trust Lando after rd1 though.

Maybe the under 1.5 is a better option. Hmm.

 

[LiquidNuke]

What kind of size advantage is Montel Jackson going to enjoy over Kelleher?

 

[buckwheatloaf]

Hespect.
How much are you staking on both these bets, in $ please?

$500 on brunson and $300 lewis. dont expect to win either.

im a newb and i mostly like to bet $750-1250 on a lot of +150 dogs i feel good about since im on a good streak with woodley, thales leites, oleynik and anthony smith. jacare is perfect for me so i shud probably do it gosh.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

DC in rouds 4, 5 or decision at +550. I think there is a good chance that he gets BB out of there early but if he comes with a wrestling heavy gameplan and his hand is fucked up he will embrace the grind and I think it is possible.

Went small on that one.


Also...
Cannonier vs Branch under 2.5 at -115. Hit that too small.

Cannonier has big power in his hands and had Glover wobbled and panic wrestling. Branch is not a guy easy to put out (survived Rumble) but he is getting old.
On the other hand Branch is levels above Jared on the ground. I think that if he gets the fight there (he could b/c Cannonier has bad TDD) he can get the finish.

 

[kevinramsdell]

I think the math on that is not good, TBF. Lewis and Brunson are per see "high variance" events.
I am a noob at betting but this feels to me like a sucker's play. No offense of course.

I mean I get what people are saying. The risk of these guys to lose can potentially be high seeing as 1 punch can end a fight. But what does Derrick Lewis bring to the table besides one lucky punch? The guy gasses after throwing that stupid jumping high switch kick he does. DC will walk forward if he wants to, he will beat him up on the feet and if he wants to take Lewis down at ease. Wouldn't be surprised to see a crucifix stoppage in the 1st or 2nd round.

Brunson is a counter machine, guy swings widely with his chin in the air often in most fights, unless he sticks to a pure grappling game plan or catches a lucky shot Brunson will get eaten up for 3 rounds or stopped.

I'd be most concerned for Eubanks as she lacks MMA experience and is fighting a super vet in Roxanne who could win but I don't see her having the athleticism to do much against Eubanks. Hence why these 3 are huge favorites.

My question really was is it worth the $129 bet to collect $229. Usually when I put together 3 or 4 fight parlays where I mix in a dog or two I lose the bet so I wanted to see if maybe I could bet on 3 big favorites that by all rights should take home a win. But obviously in this sport anything can happen. At a +500 Lewis isn't anything special for me to bet on. I went hard on DC vs Stipe and took a lot of shit from people on these forums for it but it paid off.

 

[Stunna77]

Moraes/Arce is going to be fire the first two rounds, 3rd round is def Arce's to lose. That said, I think Moraes TKO +1185 is defo worth a stab. He throws heat and has vicious body shots.