UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

cocomilk said:
hall to win wont cash
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Hall 29-28 across the board cashes both bets.
Hall 29-28, 28-29, 29-28 cashes both bets
Hall 30-27, 29-28, 28-29 cashes both bets

A draw cashes the +3.5 Lewis bet but pushes the Hall bet. Hence, you end up winning 15. You get your stake returned on the Hall bet, but win 15 on the Lewis bet.

A hall finish or dominant decision cashes the hall bet but loses the Lewis bet.

Any Lewis win cashes the Lewis bet but loses the Hall bet.


I think you're just confused as to what the +3.5 bet does. 29-28 across the board for Hall by definition cashes +3.5 Lewis.
 
Condit went through a divorce

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/carlos-condit-new-girlfriend.3887225/

http://www.ufc.ca/news/Condit-Searching-For-Proof

Outside the cage, the 34-year-old father of two has gone through a divorce, and admits that some of those personal challenges had an impact on his preparation and performance in the Octagon.

“I had a bunch of stuff going on in my personal life that I think bled into my career,” said Condit. “I’ve got some of that settled, put some of that behind me and I have a freedom right now where I’m just doing this because I’m digging it and I’m loving it.”
 
Kyle Stephens said:
If Jon loses (@ 205) it's gonna be by decision IMO. Phil Mackenzie suggested on Heavy Hands that if Gustafsson just chooses to stand his ground and go to war it's maybe his best chance to win. I'm a little worried about that, because The Mauler implied that he will go after Jones this time. But even if this happen I see the same scenario that happened to DC the second time around. He will show obvious improvements than the 1st fight and will win a round but he'll put so much effort to do this that he'll be exhausted past the 2nd and after that it's Jones' territory.

My thinking is you generally beat GOAT's by decision. These are fighters without obvious holes, they fight 5 rounders all the time, very well prepared, superb athletes... you name it they have it. Cejudo barely squeaked out a decision win (I know it's flyweights, but still), Cody won the title from the GOAT Dom Cruz by decision, the only time GSP lost (after he established himself as a GOAT with multiple title defences) was by decision to Johny and I know it's officially a win but we all know he lost that, at the minimum this should be a draw. :)
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I think its the opposite. GSP's - KO, Silva - KO, Cain KO, Aldo KO, Fedor SUB. I think if when JJ loses, it will be a brutal KO by someone like Johny Walker or Dominick Reis
 
Need a little help guys. I'm building a few DK lineups for the GPP's (not playing any cash games since I haven't been watching tape, but I do want to take a stab at the tournaments). I don't want to try to dig back through the thread. Thoughts (and esp on chances of finishes) on:

Kelleher/Jackson
Lewis/Hall
Ewell/Wood
Andrade/Yan
Volk/Money

Even without tape I think I have at least a decent feel for the rest of the fights on the card. These 5 are the ones I could use some help with. Thanks in advance to whoever replies!
 
Card said:
Condit went through a divorce

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/carlos-condit-new-girlfriend.3887225/

http://www.ufc.ca/news/Condit-Searching-For-Proof

Outside the cage, the 34-year-old father of two has gone through a divorce, and admits that some of those personal challenges had an impact on his preparation and performance in the Octagon.

“I had a bunch of stuff going on in my personal life that I think bled into my career,” said Condit. “I’ve got some of that settled, put some of that behind me and I have a freedom right now where I’m just doing this because I’m digging it and I’m loving it.”
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Based on the last sentence, this could also be a positive. If he was in an unhappy marriage, that surely affected his motivation. Now he's dating some brazilian mma chick.
 
EndlessCritic said:
Hall 29-28 across the board cashes both bets.
Hall 29-28, 28-29, 29-28 cashes both bets
Hall 30-27, 29-28, 28-29 cashes both bets

A draw cashes the +3.5 Lewis bet but pushes the Hall bet. Hence, you end up winning 15. You get your stake returned on the Hall bet, but win 15 on the Lewis bet.

A hall finish or dominant decision cashes the hall bet but loses the Lewis bet.

Any Lewis win cashes the Lewis bet but loses the Hall bet.


I think you're just confused as to what the +3.5 bet does. 29-28 across the board for Hall by definition cashes +3.5 Lewis.
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a draw wont push the hall bet, it will be graded a loss. you will break even.
 
Card said:
Condit went through a divorce

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/carlos-condit-new-girlfriend.3887225/

http://www.ufc.ca/news/Condit-Searching-For-Proof

Outside the cage, the 34-year-old father of two has gone through a divorce, and admits that some of those personal challenges had an impact on his preparation and performance in the Octagon.

“I had a bunch of stuff going on in my personal life that I think bled into my career,” said Condit. “I’ve got some of that settled, put some of that behind me and I have a freedom right now where I’m just doing this because I’m digging it and I’m loving it.”
Click to expand...

onC said:
Based on the last sentence, this could also be a positive. If he was in an unhappy marriage, that surely affected his motivation. Now he's dating some brazilian mma chick.
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I agree this is not good for my Chiesa bet, depending how the card goes I may have to throw something on Condit KO or ITD.
 
Card said:
Condit went through a divorce

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/carlos-condit-new-girlfriend.3887225/

http://www.ufc.ca/news/Condit-Searching-For-Proof

Outside the cage, the 34-year-old father of two has gone through a divorce, and admits that some of those personal challenges had an impact on his preparation and performance in the Octagon.

“I had a bunch of stuff going on in my personal life that I think bled into my career,” said Condit. “I’ve got some of that settled, put some of that behind me and I have a freedom right now where I’m just doing this because I’m digging it and I’m loving it.”
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Hell yeah young unmarried Condit back for war and making his ex feel shitty by slaughtering Chiesa. Also gotta look good for the new chick by getting back in the win column. Major confidence increase.
 
cocomilk said:
a draw wont push the hall bet, it will be graded a loss. you will break even.
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A straight bet pushes on a draw on all books as far as I'm aware.

drawpush.jpg

There's my straight bet on Frevola from the same card. $5 stake returned.

Similarly, here's my betslip on Dariush/Dunham:
dariush.jpg
 
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Was waiting for the line on Uriah Hall by TKO/KO to improve, and it sure did. 1 unit on Hall by TKO/KO at +243 to bring my total bets on the card to an even 15 units.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Hell yeah young unmarried Condit back for war and making his ex feel shitty by slaughtering Chiesa. Also gotta look good for the new chick by getting back in the win column. Major confidence increase.
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I'm personally taking some Chisea ITD at +190. Maybe we'll get PDD Conduit... Post Divorce Decline. <Lmaoo>
 
mkess101 said:
Need a little help guys. I'm building a few DK lineups for the GPP's (not playing any cash games since I haven't been watching tape, but I do want to take a stab at the tournaments). I don't want to try to dig back through the thread. Thoughts (and esp on chances of finishes) on:

Kelleher/Jackson
Lewis/Hall
Ewell/Wood
Andrade/Yan
Volk/Money

Even without tape I think I have at least a decent feel for the rest of the fights on the card. These 5 are the ones I could use some help with. Thanks in advance to whoever replies!
Click to expand...
Boom/Jackson likely sees the cards imo. Boom should be chasing td's and Jackson is good enough to stall or pepper Boom at a distance to a decision. Jackson more likely to finish in that respect.

Not a lot to be found on Lewis (except for JW calling him a future champ, etc but they also said that about Phil Hawes lol)
Hall is a huge front runner imo. Hall finish early or Lewis finish late.

Ewell/Wood screams DNGTD. Both have defensive flaws on the feet. Southpaw Ewell might give Wood fits but Wood has more ways to win. Thinking the leg kicks and power right hand plus the ground game of Wood give him a big edge.

Andrade is a dead man walking.

Didnt tape money/Volk. Everybody and their momma is on chad. Dont see the confidence since his last fight after the suspension was 2 minutes long. A lot of question marks
 
mkess101 said:
Need a little help guys. I'm building a few DK lineups for the GPP's (not playing any cash games since I haven't been watching tape, but I do want to take a stab at the tournaments). I don't want to try to dig back through the thread. Thoughts (and esp on chances of finishes) on:

Kelleher/Jackson
Lewis/Hall
Ewell/Wood
Andrade/Yan
Volk/Money

Even without tape I think I have at least a decent feel for the rest of the fights on the card. These 5 are the ones I could use some help with. Thanks in advance to whoever replies!
Click to expand...
Good chance of Mendes and Hall KOing their respective opponents, Hall especially. Volk could catch Mendes too though his chins not been tested since his comeback.
Yan is a way better striker than Andrade and probably dominates, reasonable chance of a finish as Font hurt Andrade before.
Ewell and Wood could both finish from what others said but I've not looked into it much myself.
 
conscience said:
I think if when JJ loses, it will be a brutal KO by someone like Johny Walker or Dominick Reis
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Maybe, if he fights into his 40s.

But I should've say "GOATs in their prime". :)

Wasn't Silva almost 40 years old when he lost to Weidman? I don't know, please refresh my memory.

Cain was not a long time great, he defended the belt what 2 times? When I say GOAT I mean it. Greatest of all time, one of the best p4p. And he is generally a high pace fighter, which puts him right in the line of fire, he is not gonna take his time and see what the opponent got for him, he is right in your face from the oppening bell. He is not changing approaches between rounds, like Mighty Mouse or Bones. He is not careful, but ruthless, like GSP or Jones are. The careful part is not there for Cain. This is not the way to fight if you want to defend the title more than a couple of times.

With all my respect Aldo was kinda one trick pony. He is great, no fucking way he is not, but he is just a striker and his last few fights he is mostly just a boxer. You can't lose with dignity - with a decision - when you can't offer another layer of offence (or defence) when your striking is not up to par with the opponents you are facing. If Aldo can't outstrike you he can't beat you because he does not have anything else in his toolkit (or he just doesn't use it). Should be mentioned that he started to decline after Mendes fight. I think this was his last good performance. After that he started to show his age, was not fast like before, his footwork started to deteriorate...

And I don't wanna even start talking about Fedor.
 
LiquidNuke said:
I'm personally taking some Chisea ITD at +190. Maybe we'll get PDD Conduit... Post Divorce Decline. <Lmaoo>
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Possibly, his new girl is pretty hot tbf and a pro-MMA fighter so won't get in the way as much as his ex and kids so I'm hoping he's gonna have the 'I got a hot new gf' confidence boost plus the time to commit to his career again.
 
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