UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

MT6ix said:
I only access to ML and over/unders with my book but I do like ITD play at +100.

I'm hoping more money comes in on Nathaniel Wood and I can get Ewell at better plus odds (around +130 or ideally +140). I can't see how Wood doesn't have problems with Ewell's length and him being a southpaw and being so hittable.

Or when the release the over/under, hopefully it's set at 2.5 rounds since they are bantamweights and it's not too juiced and bet the under.
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I had a fairly big play on Eduardo ML in that fight so I may be biased, but Wood didn't look great aside from grabbing an opportunist sub when Eduardo went for an ill-advised takedown. If ITD's at +100, probably gonna be able to get +130 or so on the u2.5 which'll be great.
 
Hall vs Lewis is pretty much a pick'em which is kind of surprising. Even though I'm betting Lewis and I favor him to win, I thought Hall would get more respect from bettors.
 
Dianabol said:
Hall vs Lewis is pretty much a pick'em which is kind of surprising. Even though I'm betting Lewis and I favor him to win, I thought Hall would get more respect from bettors.
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He was +400 against Costa for a while for no real reason, I feel like he's getting faded these days.
 
I’ve got a 1 unit play (to win) on Urijah Hall. I usually hate betting fighters like him who have questionable fight IQ and a seemingly fragile state of mind at times but I think he’ll outgun Bevon Lewis here. I have no doubt that Lewis has potential and a bright future if he keeps surrounding himself with the right guys, but Hall is far more talented than he gets credit for and I think his experience will show here.
 
Omni1 said:
The KO loss vs Edgar is what has me concerned. Mendes has to avoid getting hit with a clean blow from Volk for 15 minutes. Not positive that he will be able to do that on the night. It was the deciding factor in not betting Mendes. I'm not betting Volk either though. This fight is a pass.
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Just because you get flash KO'd once in your career dosen't mean it's going to happen every time you get hit clean. You can probably go through Mendes fights and find 50 times he's been hit clean without getting KO'd and then say Volkanovski have to hit him clean 50 times to have the chance of 1 of them knocking him out instead, all depends on how you look on it
 
Gugabe said:
I'll be pretty damned surprised if Volk wins this any way aside from Mendes' chin randomly failing him or Mendes looking totally depleted athletically. Mendes should be tiers ahead in skill and athleticism essentially everywhere important. Volkanovski just had a competitive fight with Darren Elkins in the striking and wrestling that he won due to having a power edge. I'm expecting Barboza/Hooker 'wrestlebox edition'.

If Volkanovski beats a 'prime' Mendes, I'll take him against Holloway.

Already got a few units on Mendes between -150 and -170, looking to get big on Mendes/fight to end by KO if that's at + odds.
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I agree with most of that (aside from
the Holloway comment) and give Mendes an edge here too, I’m just having a tough time deciding how close to his prime he still is and how well I expect him to perform down the stretch if he doesn’t seal the deal early on. I’d say the Mendes that fought Aldo the second time would beat Volkanovski probably 80% of the time, but that fight was 4 years ago and he’s had some career interruptions since then.

Even if we give him a pass for the Edgar and Conor losses the only other fights we have to go off since Aldo are the quick KOs of Lamas and Jury. Both were highly impressive and ideal wins for him but they don’t give us much to go off of as far as current cardio and durability.

There’s no evidence that Mendes won’t come in looking every bit as sharp and durable as he did back when he hung tough against Aldo, but I wish he would’ve been put to the test a bit more against Jury, especially post USADA violation.

I’m sure I’ll end up on Mendes at some point, just trying to figure out how much weight to assign to the possibility that Mendes is a diminished fighter and that Volk’s pace could be enough to edge out the last half of the fight for a tight 29-28.
 
Took me some Bahadurzada at +140. Think Millender can couse some problems with his long limbs, especially his jab to keep Siyar at distance. In the pocket Siyar is really dangerous with good power in his fists. If he take it to the ground Millender seams to be a little bit to comfortable laying in guard stalling and waiting for the ref to stand them up while Siyar is pretty active laying in guard.
 
Was thinking about BJ Penn as a big underdog to surprise everybody, but watched his Siver fight and gave up immediately. Majority of old vets who manage to win fights long after they should've stopped fighting, if they don't have the muscle, size, reaction time etc. they at least have some decent cardio and they really are coming to fight and win, they are not there to participate. Diego Sanchez comes to mind as an example. I know that Penn fought Siver @ 145, I think his cardio should be better in the more natural for him 155 weightclass, but BJ was never known as a hard worker, can't trust him to have great cardio all of a sudden. Even @ +400 it's very hard for me to put anything on him. Pass.
 
Soccer Steve said:
This is cherrypicking. I would know, I do it too often. At this level, 'only one week notice' should fall on deaf ears. These guys are pros. If they aren't ready, they shouldn't accept the fight. He accepted, so he was fit and ready. For me, his cardio is suspect, and I think Volk can exploit that. Along the same lines, Volk can KO him. Chad may have been winning, sure, until he got ktfo. Then he got ktfo by Frankie. Then Chad pissed hot and was out 3 years. So many red flags. Give me the capable dog.

OK, had my say. I remember doing this with Emmet leading up to the Stephens fight. We all know how that turned out. I'll leave the forum alone with this one now.
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Dude, you can't be serious given the factors in this fight. Do you know how much Mendes made in disclosed pay for that fight? $500,000.00 in a loss. In the fight immediately prior, he made $96,000.00 in a win. In the fight after that, he made $82,000.00 in a loss. There was a huge incentive for him to take the fight even if he was not ready.
 
Oblivian said:
Dude, you can't be serious given the factors in this fight. Do you know how much Mendes made in disclosed pay for that fight? $500,000.00 in a loss. In the fight immediately prior, he made $96,000.00 in a win. In the fight after that, he made $82,000.00 in a loss. There was a huge incentive for him to take the fight even if he was not ready.
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Also consider Mendes' position. $500k disclosed to save a huge PPV for the UFC'd probably come with a hefty bonus, and a McGregor win was about the only conceivable way he could get another title shot after losing to Aldo twice. There's also a huge difference between 'keeps in shape' and 'fight conditioned'. Guys will bring themselves to a peak if they've got competent S&C (Clearly something TAM has), do opponent-specific training and having done recent fight-sparring helps a lot.

I do think that part of Mendes' gas-out was also down to nerves. Conor fights are an entire different level of spectacle/media attention to the rest of the UFC, which plays well with Conor's pressure centric game. I do firmly believe that a fighter with an identical skillset to Conor, but 'average' popularity'd actually be less successful due to guys just panicking in the face of Conor's presence.
 
Gugabe said:
Also consider Mendes' position. $500k disclosed to save a huge PPV for the UFC'd probably come with a hefty bonus, and a McGregor win was about the only conceivable way he could get another title shot after losing to Aldo twice. There's also a huge difference between 'keeps in shape' and 'fight conditioned'. Guys will bring themselves to a peak if they've got competent S&C (Clearly something TAM has), do opponent-specific training and having done recent fight-sparring helps a lot.

I do think that part of Mendes' gas-out was also down to nerves. Conor fights are an entire different level of spectacle/media attention to the rest of the UFC, which plays well with Conor's pressure centric game. I do firmly believe that a fighter with an identical skillset to Conor, but 'average' popularity'd actually be less successful due to guys just panicking in the face of Conor's presence.
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The main thing that I remember was that Mendes didn't seem to give a shit at all that he lost. He looked happy as hell with losing.
 
Anyone else on Arlovski? I don't really rate Walt Harris and Arlovski has looked decent recently aside from the Shamil fight. If he does his recent thing of keeping the striking technical and mixing in some takedowns I don't see why he shouldn't win rounds comfortably. Harris is going to always go for the KO and Arlovski hasn't been finished since he fought like an idiot vs Ngannou.

I favour Arlovski in the match up so at +137 I got 1.5U on him but not going to go higher with the risk he gets flatlined always being there. Feels like unless he goes on a several fight dominant win streak Arlovski is always going to be the underdog.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Anyone else on Arlovski? I don't really rate Walt Harris and Arlovski has looked decent recently aside from the Shamil fight. If he does his recent thing of keeping the striking technical and mixing in some takedowns I don't see why he shouldn't win rounds comfortably. Harris is going to always go for the KO and Arlovski hasn't been finished since he fought like an idiot vs Ngannou.

I favour Arlovski in the match up so at +137 I got 1.5U on him but not going to go higher with the risk he gets flatlined always being there. Feels like unless he goes on a several fight dominant win streak Arlovski is always going to be the underdog.
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I'm on Harris. I feel that Arlovski does best against stationary guys that he has the athleticism over. Guys who are athletic and can move he will always struggle with.
 
DevilsPt2 said:
I apologize, I'm not trying to make fun of you. Hall prob will win, I just dont like the term lock. I'm going to look into it and give my full opinion later.
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Agreed. There is no such thing as a lock. #busterdouglas #mattserra #etc
 
For nunes backers:

Is her only path to victory a decision?
 
ill800 said:
For nunes backers:

Is her only path to victory a decision?
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I could see her getting a submission or TKO. I don't think anyone can argue that Nunes is by for the most dangerous fighter Cyborg has ever faced.

If you actually look at Cyborg's resume, who is her best win? it's probably pillow fisted Holly Holm.

Holm is a gazelle, Nunes is a lion.
 
Nunes leg kicks are going to be a problem for Cyborg and I genuinely think nunes is faster. if nunes can hurt her then it could be easy for nunes here. Cyborg brings pressure but looks unimpressive to me. I really think girls come into the ring intimidated against her. She may just overpower nunes though. It's not like nunes hasn't been stopped and I think Cyborg is just tougher, bigger, stronger. Nunes has a chance but I also think she might get intimidated in there and fall apart, pretty much like the rest of Cyborgs opponents.
 
Chiesa is by far the best favorite to bet on this card, just a terrible style match up for Condit. And Condit is done, he's been done for a while.

Chiesa takes down pretty much everyone he fights, Condit has always had poor TDD.

Chiesa had the worst weight cut of his life last fight. He's a gigantic LW, it's always amazed me that guys like him and Vick could make 155. I'm confident the move up to 170 will only make him a better fighter.

Since 2012 Condit 3-7, he's only wins are Nick Diaz, Martin Kampmann, Thiago Alves.

Condit should got back to the coffee shop
 
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