UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

[eataface]

after re-watching Jones vs Gus I cant help but feel that there was something off with Jones that night. His whole demeanour seemed different to me, usually very confident, smiling and pumped up. but as Buffer was calling the intro he looked very nervous and the serious bags under his eyes leads me to believe he really was smashing Charlie leading up to that fight. Im gonna be told that im overthinking this but surely somebody else noticed this too. Gus closed the distance well on him, but even his movement seemed a little flat-footed. I think he's going to be well more prepared for this fight.
The big reason that the first fight was so close was because Jon couldn't take him down and so Gus pretty much matched him on the feet with his boxing skills. But I don't see this happening again, I feel like Jon is going to get those takedowns and finish him on the ground.

Well he didnt train for the fight at all and more than likely up for weeks on end smelling the columbian flour to make sure it was the right kind for his baking needs

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Because I don't like him. haha

Surely there are harder punchers at 145, no? Conor doesn't count anymore I suppose.

If Chad is going in this one looking to throw down then I'd be even more wary of paying his price. Edgar KO'd him with a whiff it looked like. Chad popped right back up, wobbly maybe, but every ref will stop the fight at that point. I think you might be right that Volk will need a finish, but I think he gets it, and if he does I would not be surprised if the fight is 19-19 at that point. This seems like a pretty even match, a gauge fight to see exactly what Volk is, and I like the dog money.

I feel you are putting too much weight on the Frankie fight.

The stood toe to toe with Aldo for 5 rounds. No shame in losing to Conor on 8 days notice. I think the Frankie fight was a fluke.

Mendes striking was among the best in FW a while ago. The guy has stupid speed and a lot of power. He is short but he covers a lot of ground with his entries.

I guess we have different opinions on where Chads career is at this point. I dont think he is far from his prime if anything. You might be fading him. We are 4 days away from finding it out.

 

[null]

Chiesa is by far the best favorite to bet on this card, just a terrible style match up for Condit. And Condit is done, he's been done for a while.

Chiesa takes down pretty much everyone he fights, Condit has always had poor TDD.

Chiesa had the worst weight cut of his life last fight. He's a gigantic LW, it's always amazed me that guys like him and Vick could make 155. I'm confident the move up to 170 will only make him a better fighter.

Since 2012 Condit 3-7, he's only wins are Nick Diaz, Martin Kampmann, Thiago Alves.

Condit should got back to the coffee shop

I thought Chiesa was going to outwrestle and beat Anthony Pettis but that didn't work out, so I would be afraid to bet him as a favorite even versus one foot out the door but still dangerous Carlos Condit.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

For nunes backers:
Is her only path to victory a decision?

I think her main path is actually via submission, then decision and I think KO is very unlikely. Cyborg has that big roid head, even if you rock her, she is gonna recover fast and pouring strikes at her is gonna drain your energy. Nunes is 100% going for the sub if she put her in a bad situation (doesn't need to be knock down).

I personally looked a lot of options for betting on this card and the only one that I still see as good bet is Nunes. It's not a fade on Cyborg, I am not going to bet against her. I bet on Nunes. I am on the Nunes train since she beat Tate (she was not on my radar till that win). Am I a fanboy - maybe. She is the most complete female MMA fighter today. Close second is Shevchenko. The big underdog odds help too. If she was the favourite I would't touch her. But would not bet on Cyborg either. That is how much I trust Nunes in this fight.

We've seen a couple of instances of all time greats go up in weight (calculated risks) to beat the champ - DC went to HW and beat Stipe and GSP beat Bisping. Of course not everytime works. If you don't stack the odds in your favour heavily to negate the weight disparity. GSP bulked up quite nicely and he knew Bisping practically is half blind and he is in the end of his career. GSP would not challenge if the champ was The Reaper, Romero or even blown up WW Gastelum. Any one of those 3 would've fuck him up bad. DC knew in his core he can beat this guy, he was undefeated @ HW and knew Stipe is not untouchable and had good plan. The 3rd (that will give as example here) lower weightclass challenger that went up to try to win 2nd title was Jedrzejczyk. But she didn't wanted that really. She knew she can't win, she was kinda forced to take this fight. She does not even want to stay at 125 (even though this weightclass is full of girls that she can obliterate).

What Nunes is doing here is a calculated risk IMO. She knows she will give up size and strength, but she will be faster, more mobile and will have much more tricks in her toolbag and more experience v quality competition. What Cyborg did all these years is fighting in a vacuum pretty much. She was fighting @145 where the chicks that are natural 145-ers like her are utter garbage and the ones who are not (but are still bad) are 135ers and 125ers.

Going up in weight and challenging the champ there is very risky business. You can't just do it. But here there is a lot of things going for Amanda. One thing that is not mentioned is that Cyborg genuinely don't like Amanda. She thinks Amanda is a traitor to her country. This could very well go against her in the fight, she can forget about gameplan and staying safe and just give every opportunity to get hit hard or taken down.

 

[null]

I guess we have different opinions on where Chads career is at this point. I dont think he is far from his prime if anything. You might be fading him. We are 4 days away from finding it out.

We're eleven days from finding out, UFC 232 is the weekend after this one.

 

[TrueAscension]

Guys, I am telling you. If you can get through Kyle's posts, there is so much good fade material in there.

 

[Dianabol]

Still got salt for Andre Ewell. Yeah I bet Barao against him, if there was ever another fight Barao was going to win in the UFC, I for sure thought it'd be against some jobber in Brazil. I don't praise Ewell's performance as much as I bash Barao's. It's not hard to beat a guy that doesn't fight you for 2 rounds.

I don't know who Barao can beat at this point. I'm not sure I could favor him vs more than a handful of guys on the UFC BW or FW roster. He's so shot, gasses in like 5 minutes, gets that thousand yard stare in his eyes and concedes defeat. Barao is 2-6 over his last 8.

Ewell is a big athletic BW. His striking is unorthodox, keeps his hands by his waist and relies a lot on his speed and movement. Throws a nice 1,2 and the throws it often, it's long and fast too.

Nathaniel Wood is also a striker but a much more conventional one. Fast hands, decent power, nice calf kicks. His defense is a little suspect and he seems to have one of those noses that just squirts blood. Broke his nose in a fight back in 2016 and then in his UFC debut you saw it leaking again pretty bad.

Both Ewell and Wood are primarily strikers, I'm not sure either will want to go for TD's. Expecting a kickboxing match. I'm going to pick Wood, I don't think Ewell looks half as good as he did vs Barao. It's easy to look good when you have a slow, gassed out opponent in front of you that offers no offence.

 

[zeckdo]

I have problems trusting my money on dumbass Mike Chiesa, but Condit's TDD has never improved, his sub defense isn't good, and he doesn't have the incredible striking he used to in order to keep the fight at distance. Chiesa is the pick, but not at -190. Maybe a sub prop line at + money? but that line is about to be -120 lol.

So far I'm on Siyar, Nunes/Cyborg GTD, Zingano ML, Volk ML, volk-mendes draw.

Scouting the Nunes ML every day to decide when I should lock in my action. This fight gives me Stipe/DC feels, lower weight champion moving up, not getting much respect, +2xx dog, I dunno man, not the biggest fan of Nunes, but I really like her chances to beat the Borg.

Hard to see Jones/Gus finishing one another, coming off the long layoffs, and having gone 5 hard rounds before, first 2 rounds will be slow for sure, but there is a chance of a finish 3,4,5. Still, GTD at +100 looks good, theoretically if the first 2 rounds are slow, I can live bet FDGTD at + money after rd 1 and 2.

 

[Rasdun]

I wasn't yet born when Douglas vs Tyson happened but I feel like some bettors must have had money on Douglas at 42/1.

I was only 13, but a huge boxing fan already. Remember coming out from Jr. High dance into parking lot, and someone said Douglas won - of course no one believed him ! lol
although I wouldn't put it in the same category bc it wasn't that surprising - won great money $ on bet of 1u on Holm at +1200 v. Rousey. I know not thread-related - but there is no such thing as a lock!

 

[Rasdun]

I'm afraid that BJ is going to end up looking foolish in this fight, he is so degraded. He's likely going to get clowned on the feet or submitted on the ground if it goes there. I am holding myself back from betting Ryan Hall again at -440.

You are probably right, but no way I pay the juice here.

 

[NorthernLights]

Hard to see Jones/Gus finishing one another, coming off the long layoffs, and having gone 5 hard rounds before

Remember the DC fight?

 

[MT6ix]

Still got salt for Andre Ewell. Yeah I bet Barao against him, if there was ever another fight Barao was going to win in the UFC, I for sure thought it'd be against some jobber in Brazil. I don't praise Ewell's performance as much as I bash Barao's. It's not hard to beat a guy that doesn't fight you for 2 rounds.

I don't know who Barao can beat at this point. I'm not sure I could favor him vs more than a handful of guys on the UFC BW or FW roster. He's so shot, gasses in like 5 minutes, gets that thousand yard stare in his eyes and concedes defeat. Barao is 2-6 over his last 8.

Ewell is a big athletic BW. His striking is unorthodox, keeps his hands by his waist and relies a lot on his speed and movement. Throws a nice 1,2 and the throws it often, it's long and fast too.

Nathaniel Wood is also a striker but a much more conventional one. Fast hands, decent power, nice calf kicks. His defense is a little suspect and he seems to have one of those noses that just squirts blood. Broke his nose in a fight back in 2016 and then in his UFC debut you saw it leaking again pretty bad.

Both Ewell and Wood are primarily strikers, I'm not sure either will want to go for TD's. Expecting a kickboxing match. I'm going to pick Wood, I don't think Ewell looks half as good as he did vs Barao. It's easy to look good when you have a slow, gassed out opponent in front of you that offers no offence.

I agree Barao has one good round in him and that's about it but I do think he won round 1 and 2 in the Ewell fight and I wasn't super impressed with Ewell in that fight.

Wood isn't going to look for takedowns in this fight with Ewell. They are going to stand and trade. Wood's two best weapons aren't going to be there. Wood's snapping fast left job is going to be negated because Ewell as a southpaw uses his right to paw (ala the Diaz brothers) to stop orthodox fighter's jabs and if Wood throws his calf kicks he is going to get countered with Ewell's straight left. Wood doesn't set up his calf kicks, a lot are naked.

7 inches is a big reach advantage for Ewell, guys with a lot shorter reaches from the orthodox stance pre UFC have cracked Wood but to Wood's credit he has a chin and has heart and find ways to win. Stylistically standing up, things are not in his favour. Ewell won't have to worry about takedowns.

I'm looking to bet Ewell but I'm looking for good dog odds, hopefully around +135- +140. I need money to come in on Wood.

 

[TheKingOwl]

I have problems trusting my money on dumbass Mike Chiesa, but Condit's TDD has never improved, his sub defense isn't good, and he doesn't have the incredible striking he used to in order to keep the fight at distance. Chiesa is the pick, but not at -190. Maybe a sub prop line at + money? but that line is about to be -120 lol.

Chiesa ITD +148 @5Dimes. Really like this odds.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm on Chiesa/Condit ITD.

 

[Dianabol]

One thing that is not mentioned is that Cyborg genuinely don't like Amanda. She thinks Amanda is a traitor to her country.

Why does Cyborg think this? because Nunes left Brazil to train and live in the America?

Cyborg did the same thing.

And so did Vitor, Wandereli, Glover and pretty much every other Brazilian that made good money in the UFC

 

[Jordan3399]

Really not seeing much reason to bet Nunes. Don't trust her cardio as her last 2 fights she was never actually made to work in and didn't have her cardio tested at all as she was never really working hard for most of each fight. If she goes looking for a KO she's gonna gas out (see the Muay Thai fight she had with Jorina Baars fight Cyborgs chin is insane), if she goes for a wrestle and sub then maybe she gets it but its not like Cyborg has bad BJJ and Nunes is some killer on the ground. Chances are she gasses out trying to muscle her way to a sub which she couldn't even manage vs the relatively tiny Shevchenko. That leaves her trying to win rounds point fight with Cyborg for 5 rounds which assumes she can win 3 rounds striking, won't gas late and basically assumes Cyborg isn't going to pressure and make her work hard which I highly doubt.

I don't think Cyborg is that great at all, but as an athlete she's far better than Nunes and its not like Nunes is that much better anywhere that you can be that confident in her. Seems Nunes best path to victory is a first or second round submission as the ground is the only area she perhaps has a clear advantage over Cyborg. Even looking at Nunes past sub victories, its after she hurts them on the feet and I'm really not convinced she has the power too after seeing the way Cyborg marched down the much more dangerous Baars so comfortably.

Only concern I can see is, as someone said leg kicks, if Nunes can spam them early and ruin Cyborgs mobility then maybe she can cruise to a decision. But again, Cyborg is tough as hell and I doubt she'll just stand there letting her leg get wrecked and will either march her down or throw hard right hand counters like she did vs Holm.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Why does Cyborg think this? because Nunes left Brazil to train and live in the America?

Cyborg did the same thing.

And so did Vitor, Wandereli, Glover and pretty much every other Brazilian that made good money in the UFC

Dat Brazllian pride I guess. Jessica Andrade was talking the same shit to Claudia and Aldo is saying the same about my boy Moicano as well.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Montel hit harder than John Lineker? Don't think so. Boom is pretty good wrestler too, not as good as Símon I don't think but theres a path there or Boom could get countered all 15 minutes. I think GTD should be like -250 not -175.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Really not seeing much reason to bet Nunes. Don't trust her cardio as her last 2 fights she was never actually made to work in and didn't have her cardio tested at all as she was never really working hard for most of each fight. If she goes looking for a KO she's gonna gas out (see the Muay Thai fight she had with Jorina Baars fight Cyborgs chin is insane), if she goes for a wrestle and sub then maybe she gets it but its not like Cyborg has bad BJJ and Nunes is some killer on the ground. Chances are she gasses out trying to muscle her way to a sub which she couldn't even manage vs the relatively tiny Shevchenko. That leaves her trying to win rounds point fight with Cyborg for 5 rounds which assumes she can win 3 rounds striking, won't gas late and basically assumes Cyborg isn't going to pressure and make her work hard which I highly doubt.

I don't think Cyborg is that great at all, but as an athlete she's far better than Nunes and its not like Nunes is that much better anywhere that you can be that confident in her. Seems Nunes best path to victory is a first or second round submission as the ground is the only area she perhaps has a clear advantage over Cyborg. Even looking at Nunes past sub victories, its after she hurts them on the feet and I'm really not convinced she has the power too after seeing the way Cyborg marched down the much more dangerous Baars so comfortably.

Only concern I can see is, as someone said leg kicks, if Nunes can spam them early and ruin Cyborgs mobility then maybe she can cruise to a decision. But again, Cyborg is tough as hell and I doubt she'll just stand there letting her leg get wrecked and will either march her down or throw hard right hand counters like she did vs Holm.

You are on crack if you think Cyborg is more athletic than Nunes. She is bigger and probably stronger, but no doubt Amanda is faster and more explosive

 

[Dianabol]

Really not seeing much reason to bet Nunes. Don't trust her cardio as her last 2 fights she was never actually made to work in and didn't have her cardio tested at all as she was never really working hard for most of each fight. If she goes looking for a KO she's gonna gas out (see the Muay Thai fight she had with Jorina Baars fight Cyborgs chin is insane), if she goes for a wrestle and sub then maybe she gets it but its not like Cyborg has bad BJJ and Nunes is some killer on the ground. Chances are she gasses out trying to muscle her way to a sub which she couldn't even manage vs the relatively tiny Shevchenko. That leaves her trying to win rounds point fight with Cyborg for 5 rounds which assumes she can win 3 rounds striking, won't gas late and basically assumes Cyborg isn't going to pressure and make her work hard which I highly doubt.

I don't think Cyborg is that great at all, but as an athlete she's far better than Nunes and its not like Nunes is that much better anywhere that you can be that confident in her. Seems Nunes best path to victory is a first or second round submission as the ground is the only area she perhaps has a clear advantage over Cyborg. Even looking at Nunes past sub victories, its after she hurts them on the feet and I'm really not convinced she has the power too after seeing the way Cyborg marched down the much more dangerous Baars so comfortably.

Only concern I can see is, as someone said leg kicks, if Nunes can spam them early and ruin Cyborgs mobility then maybe she can cruise to a decision. But again, Cyborg is tough as hell and I doubt she'll just stand there letting her leg get wrecked and will either march her down or throw hard right hand counters like she did vs Holm.

Should expect Nunes cardio will be better at 145 because she doesn't have to cut as much weight. She's also become a lot better at managing her energy. Night and day from what she was like in the Zingano fight.

People always think Nunes is going to gas but she hasn't even come close to doing so in her last 4 fights. This is kind of an over played angle. We can't just give her credit for improving her cardio can we