For nunes backers:
Is her only path to victory a decision?
I think her main path is actually via submission, then decision and I think KO is very unlikely. Cyborg has that
big roid head, even if you rock her, she is gonna recover fast and pouring strikes at her is gonna drain your energy. Nunes is 100% going for the sub if she put her in a bad situation (doesn't need to be knock down).
I personally looked a lot of options for betting on this card and the only one that I still see as good bet is Nunes. It's not a fade on Cyborg, I am not going to bet
against her. I bet
on Nunes. I am on the Nunes train since she beat Tate (she was not on my radar till that win). Am I a fanboy - maybe. She is the most complete female MMA fighter today. Close second is Shevchenko. The big underdog odds help too. If she was the favourite I would't touch her. But would not bet on Cyborg either. That is how much I trust Nunes in this fight.
We've seen a couple of instances of
all time greats go up in weight (
calculated risks) to beat the champ - DC went to HW and beat Stipe and GSP beat Bisping. Of course not everytime works. If you don't stack the odds in your favour heavily to negate the weight disparity. GSP bulked up quite nicely and he knew Bisping practically is half blind and he is in the end of his career. GSP would not challenge if the champ was The Reaper, Romero or even blown up WW Gastelum. Any one of those 3 would've fuck him up bad. DC knew in his core he can beat this guy, he was undefeated @ HW and knew Stipe is not untouchable and had good plan. The 3rd (that will give as example here) lower weightclass challenger that went up to try to win 2nd title was Jedrzejczyk. But she didn't wanted that really. She knew she can't win, she was kinda forced to take this fight. She does not even want to stay at 125 (even though this weightclass is full of girls that she can obliterate).
What Nunes is doing here is a
calculated risk IMO. She knows she will give up size and strength, but she will be faster, more mobile and will have much more tricks in her toolbag and more experience v quality competition. What Cyborg did all these years is fighting in a vacuum pretty much. She was fighting @145 where the chicks that are natural 145-ers like her are utter garbage and the ones who are not (but are still bad) are 135ers and 125ers.
Going up in weight and challenging the champ there is very risky business. You can't just do it. But here there is a lot of things going for Amanda. One thing that is not mentioned is that Cyborg genuinely don't like Amanda. She thinks Amanda is a traitor to her country. This could very well go against her in the fight, she can forget about gameplan and staying safe and just give every opportunity to get hit hard or taken down.