UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

[Soccer Steve]

This forum deserves defending.

There is some good shit on this. I love it when guys call me out on my crap ideas and/or boost me up when I say something useful. And it's so easy to just ignore the nonsense, or simply scoff at it and literally click a button to move past it. People are so fucking entitled nowadays. You'd think this was a subscription-based forum or something. It's FREE. No one is forcing you to read or write shit.

If you don't like it gtfo.

 

[arrelione]

Semi rant from an OG

I used to be a regular in this thread from day 1, contributing/discussing from the day the thread Went up until fight night. However with time that changed to just dropping in a couple hours Before the fights start to scroll through comments until I see a username I recognize to tail on the fights I don't have an idea on. Some of it has to do with not having as much time on my hands as I did 10 ish years ago but the main reason for me(and some other old schoolers I've talked to) is that you have to scroll through literally hundreds of comments containg pointless insults or even worse the attention seeking. Trying to make the thread about themselves by arguing with every poster about every fight that they don't agree with. The last mentioned ones usually appear after having a good couple of events and getting some internet-high fives and enjoying the attention, thankfully they usually don't last.

Don't get me wrong tho, discussions are needed. We have a lot of good discussions but when people are nitpicking others posts to do some "pro capper signaling" for the rest it's just pathetic. Just like when you enter the gym, check your ego Before you post.

My 2 cents and off topic the thread really has delivered the last couple of months. Good job!
Edit: Forgot how to spoiler shit so you'll just have to put up with it.

 

[Larthus]

Factually, I completely agree with you. And I had zero problems with your post then, even though I think Larthus is a good analyst.

I only point out the hypocrisy here because of your sudden problem with "aggressiveness" and "rudeness".

Just to clarify - I was just using data to convey my opinion that I thought the judges got it wrong & Moicano was in fact winning & winning handidly.

The whole ordeal was supplemental to my argument for betting on Max > Ortega and he took it as a personal attack. I have to go back and look but I’m pretty certain I didn’t attack him personally, maybe I did. Either way, I still think he took it extremely personally when I was just trying to have a debate.

Btw thanks for the compliment. I’m newer but I try to contribute as best as possible. If I’m wrong I’ll wear it on the chin. Biggest example is Hooker, man I got that completely wrong.

One last edit - disagreeing with the official scorecards should never be viewed as “flat earth level dumb” - how many times are fights closely contested and we disagree with the scorecard result?

 

[RichB5868]

The GOAT parlay of Jones/Cyborg is super enticing. When no man has beaten Jones and no woman has beaten Cyborg in the UFC...it feels like betting on two Tom Brady's of their sport even if these are their toughest matchups to date. You can always hedge with Gus/Nunes decisions as it is tough to imagine either of them getting stopped. Just thinking out loud here, need to watch more tape, but two GOATs in legacy fights...really tough to pick against them despite the value on the other side

 

[MT6ix]

Why cant Latifi win rounds by taking Anderson down? Why cant Latifi submit him with a Kimura? I put down 3u at -170 and 2u at -155. Apparently going against the circle but I feel good about it.



Texeira makes more sense. I guess Andersons jab could draw out a combination from Latifi which could then allow Anderson to use his movement and time a takedown. I dont know. I feel very comfortable with Latifi, I think he has every effective advantage in this fight.

The stats are just a generalization of the fighter but obviously can change drastically depending on the opposition. I think Anderson lands less than 4.55 strikes per minute against Latifi. His takedown stats say 5.48/15min, I think he gets less than that as well.

I think the stats are accurate. Latifi with his height and reach should be fighting at middleweight but because of his muscular build he is at light heavyweight.

So against the majority of fighters at light heavyweight, he is at a fair size reach disadvantage. In the standup, it takes time for him to figure out distance/range to get inside on longer fighters. He can't just throw a jab and land because of the reach disadvantage, that's why you see him explode in on times to close distance and land his overhand right but it takes time. That's why his strikes landed per minute is so low. It's accurate.

Interesting fight nonetheless.

 

[theTKDguy]

Just watched some tape on nathan wood, holy shit kid's good. Ewell is solid too tho, and his massive reach may cause some problems. I don't know who takes this one. This fight is must see tv.

 

[theTKDguy]

Not sure how anyone could say Siyar is more technical, his boxing technique is atrocious. No idea how he generates such power with those bunk ass "hooks" he throws. The main concern for me is Millender's tdd and get-ups as Siyar has shown some wrestling, albeit against Thatch. Most likely scenario is Millender pieces him up at range to a decision.

You're right, he isn't technical at all. I confused him with luque probably lol

 

[theTKDguy]

Bro he just changed his mind about putting muscle on to move to HW, instead he is cutting to 185.

For real though, his pecs and traps disappeared.

Condit looks fairly small too

 

[nstig8]

Michael Chiesa is benefiting from a great style match up against Condit but then I realize he fights out of Sik Jitsu. That camp is absolutely dreadful. Horrible game plans and horrible striking. GL to anyone betting Chiesa as chalk.

 

[Stunna77]

Just watched some tape on nathan wood, holy shit kid's good. Ewell is solid too tho, and his massive reach may cause some problems. I don't know who takes this one. This fight is must see tv.

Kid has good offense but he blocks punches with his face.

 

[DevilsPt2]

I think the stats are accurate. Latifi with his height and reach should be fighting at middleweight but because of his muscular build he is at light heavyweight.

So against the majority of fighters at light heavyweight, he is at a fair size reach disadvantage. In the standup, it takes time for him to figure out distance/range to get inside on longer fighters. He can't just throw a jab and land because of the reach disadvantage, that's why you see him explode in on times to close distance and land his overhand right but it takes time. That's why his strikes landed per minute is so low. It's accurate.

Interesting fight nonetheless.

Latifi prob wont over perform his striking stats, I agree with you there but I expect Anderson to under perform on his. I agree with your assessment on Latifis striking style as well. Woodley doesnt throw a lot either, you'd expect him to get easily out struck in every fight but fighters are scared to attack him too. Till apparently only landed 1 strike lol, Thompson only landed 1 in rd 1, 7 in rd 2 and 10 in rd 3 . In the second fight Thompson landed 6 in rd 1, 8 in rd 2 and 27 in rd 3.

Kid has good offense but he blocks punches with his face.

I'm impressed with Wood as well but he bleeds easy and like you say his defense isnt the tightest. I think Wood can stone cold KO Ewell though, his defense isnt great either, hands down, sometimes he thinks he cant be reached but he can and I think Wood will be landing the more significant strikes. I have no bet yet and may not even bet it but I'm leaning towards Wood.

 

[Stunna77]

Latifi prob wont over perform his striking stats, I agree with you there but I expect Anderson to under perform on his. I agree with your assessment on Latifis striking style as well. Woodley doesnt throw a lot either, you'd expect him to get easily out struck in every fight but fighters are scared to attack him too. Till apparently only landed 1 strike lol, Thompson only landed 1 in rd 1, 7 in rd 2 and 10 in rd 3 . In the second fight Thompson landed 6 in rd 1, 8 in rd 2 and 27 in rd 3.



I'm impressed with Wood as well but he bleeds easy and like you say his defense isnt the tightest. I think Wood can stone cold KO Ewell though, his defense isnt great either, hands down, sometimes he thinks he cant be reached but he can and I think Wood will be landing the more significant strikes. I have no bet yet and may not even bet it but I'm leaning towards Wood.

Only action I have is .66u DNGTD +145 and .2u Ewell ITD +290. I haven't finished tape, but Wood gets hurt often and is kill or be killed with his all offense, no defense approach. Ewell doesn't seem to have a ton of power, but is accurate, decently fast for a long guy, and flurries well when he has guys hurt from what I have seen.

 

[DevilsPt2]

It's possible, although I don't see him winning multiple rounds that way. Anderson won't be easy to take/hold down and I don't think Latifi has the gas tank to sustain that kind of attack, especially being that Anderson has excellent cardio. My feeling is that the wrestling is likely going to cancel out (at least until later in the fight) and things will mostly play out on the feet. A kimura seems oddly specific being that Latifi has none on his record, but that would be included in the Latifi itd that I mentioned as his most likely path.

Looking back through the thread, it seems the majority are actually on Latifi. It's just been a few of us that like Anderson's chances at this price if he can avoid the KO. I'd be on Latifi if the odds were flipped for what it's worth.

Anderson defensive wrestling is largely untested as well. The only fighters to have attempted a takedown on him are Justin Jones(who the fook I know), Blacowicz(1/1), Lawlor(1/1), Cummins(0/1) and Texeira(0/4). We also havent seen Latifi gas.

I said kimura because when people see Latifi ITD they're thinking right hand and guillotine, I think he has more ways to finish than that, one being the kimura.

 

[Vir_Ars]

Kid has good offense but he blocks punches with his face.

True, I watched tape too for this fight and I think that wood is good, but if Ewell come to strike and be agressieve, it is gonna be too much for Nathan, but and the other side, maybe Nathan have now a better defence? hard to now. I think that the DGTD is a good option.

 

[piglord]

Michael Chiesa is benefiting from a great style match up against Condit but then I realize he fights out of Sik Jitsu. That camp is absolutely dreadful. Horrible game plans and horrible striking. GL to anyone betting Chiesa as chalk.

i'm not sure if it's as bad of a match-up for condit as it looks on paper, will post thoughts soon.

 

[SBJJ]

i'm not sure if it's as bad of a match-up for condit as it looks on paper, will post thoughts soon.

I'm actually liking the Condit price

 

[MT6ix]

Only action I have is .66u DNGTD +145 and .2u Ewell ITD +290. I haven't finished tape, but Wood gets hurt often and is kill or be killed with his all offense, no defense approach. Ewell doesn't seem to have a ton of power, but is accurate, decently fast for a long guy, and flurries well when he has guys hurt from what I have seen.

I like the DNGTD at +145. I only have access to ML and o/u, hoping o/u is 2.5 rounds since it's bantamweight and under is even money at least or around there to hit it.

I thought watching his fight against Johnny Eduardo, he was getting hit a lot because Eduardo was good at slipping and countering but one just needs to watch Wood's fight against Josh Reed just over a year to see how hittable Wood is, Reed isn't exactly a technical striking savant either.

I mentioned it earlier, stylistically Ewell has all the advantages, 7 inch reach advantage, southpaw, size, fights long. Wood is really a flyweight, not a bantamweight but UFC dissolving the flyweight division, so he has no choice.

I watched interviews on both fighter. Ewell is super excited to fight a guy who isn't looking to take him down like Barao did and knows he has the physical advantages. Wood in an interview said he knows Ewell is a tall long southpaw and he said he is going to win somehow. His confidence reminds me of Darren Till. Young, cocky and brash Englishman.

 

[piglord]

I'm actually liking the Condit price

yeah i'm on him at +162

 

[Vir_Ars]

I like the DNGTD at +145. I only have access to ML and o/u, hoping o/u is 2.5 rounds since it's bantamweight and under is even money at least or around there to hit it.

I thought watching his fight against Johnny Eduardo, he was getting hit a lot because Eduardo was good at slipping and countering but one just needs to watch Wood's fight against Josh Reed just over a year to see how hittable Wood is, Reed isn't exactly a technical striking savant either.

I mentioned it earlier, stylistically Ewell has all the advantages, 7 inch reach advantage, southpaw, size, fights long. Wood is really a flyweight, not a bantamweight but UFC dissolving the flyweight division, so he has no choice.

I watched interviews on both fighter. Ewell is super excited to fight a guy who isn't looking to take him down like Barao did and knows he has the physical advantages. Wood in an interview said he knows Ewell is a tall long southpaw and he said he is going to win somehow. His confidence reminds me of Darren Till. Young, cocky and brash Englishman.

I have a Font - Pettis vibe in this fight, too much reach advantage for Ewell

 

[Soccer Steve]

Liking Lewis-UHall O1.5 at -150.

Any thoughts on BJ-RHall O/U out there? Gotta think that if Hall can just summon up an ounce of friggin courage he can put hands on BJ, drag him down, and choke him out. Never been subbed before, I know, but I think at this point he could be softened up with like a half dozen punches. All this talk yet I'm on BJ ML haha god