UFC 242 Khabib vs Poirier

Masterbettor said:
That's what I expressed on twitter, I think him at +120 can't be a bad bet. No body agreed with me.
Click to expand...
I'm iffy about that one. Felder doesn't have the wrestling of Khabib or Lee to dominate Barboza nor does he have ruthless aggression like Gaethje or Ferguson to march him down. Barboza should be the better striker I would think so how does Felder win? Barboza already beaten him once before too.
 
Masterbettor said:
That's what I expressed on twitter, I think him at +120 can't be a bad bet. No body agreed with me.
Click to expand...

I've took Felder too, I think he has the more well rounded game and Barboza might just be washed... But some people do have the belief that style match ups don't change
 
What has actually changed since Felder and Barboza last fought that could effect the outcome significantly or is that likely too? Barboza is still way faster and frankly the better striker, while Felder still doesn't have movement and pressure game needed to get inside consistently on Barboza. Felder is also 35, 2 years older than Barboza and while Barboza might have had a few rough losses we saw what happened last time Barboza had a step down in competition with Hooker. Barboza's durability is arguably questionable but the only thing Felder is likely to land on him is his punches which barely ever hurt anyone tbh, his power is in his kicks and elbows. He landed a lot of clean shots on Vicks chin and couldn't put him down.

Also Barboza without a doubt has the more well rounded game, his grappling is much better than Felders it's not even close. Barboza's a legit BJJ brown belt and has shown fairly competent offensive wrestling while Felder has looked clueless on the ground at times with mediocre TDD defence. The only place Felder is arguably better is with his striking in the clinch, but Barboza's not just gonna hang around willingly accepting punishment in positions like lower level guys like Ray and Ricci did.

Not saying trust Barboza for a big bet but I more than happily went 2u at -110 and think he should at least be as wide a fav as he is now.
 
Jordan3399 said:
What has actually changed since Felder and Barboza last fought that could effect the outcome significantly or is that likely too? Barboza is still way faster and frankly the better striker, while Felder still doesn't have movement and pressure game needed to get inside consistently on Barboza. Felder is also 35, 2 years older than Barboza and while Barboza might have had a few rough losses we saw what happened last time Barboza had a step down in competition with Hooker. Barboza's durability is arguably questionable but the only thing Felder is likely to land on him is his punches which barely ever hurt anyone tbh, his power is in his kicks and elbows. He landed a lot of clean shots on Vicks chin and couldn't put him down.

Also Barboza without a doubt has the more well rounded game, his grappling is much better than Felders it's not even close. Barboza's a legit BJJ brown belt and has shown fairly competent offensive wrestling while Felder has looked clueless on the ground at times with mediocre TDD defence. The only place Felder is arguably better is with his striking in the clinch, but Barboza's not just gonna hang around willingly accepting punishment in positions like lower level guys like Ray and Ricci did.

Not saying trust Barboza for a big bet but I more than happily went 2u at -110 and think he should at least be as wide a fav as he is now.
Click to expand...
Speaking in generalities strikers have a much narrow range of being in there prime than others. And while they may be close in age Edson has taken far more damage in his career. I believe Felder is far more durable. Do you think Edson could last 3 rounds going toe to toe with Mike Perry like Felder did?
 
Masterbettor said:
Speaking in generalities strikers have a much narrow range of being in there prime than others. And while they may be close in age Edson has taken far more damage in his career. I believe Felder is far more durable. Do you think Edson could last 3 rounds going toe to toe with Mike Perry like Felder did?
Click to expand...
Barboza has a decent chance with Perry given how hittable and untechnical Perry is, not that it is relevant here really.

For sure Felder is more durable, its not even questionable, but he was in the first fight as well and couldn't exploit it nor do I think he can here. Barboza might have vulnerabilities with pressure but you can't just walk forward with a good chin and expect to do well. Felder found that out in the first fight when he pushed forward trying to force exchanges and Barboza just circled out and blasted him with kicks for 15 minutes.
 
Barboza/Felder 1 - God damn did Felder take the full power heel to the cock and balls from a spinning back kick in round one and didn't even take the full 5 minutes break.

Felder goes for that spinning back fist 5 or 6 times in the first round, its something he still has in his arsenal but it's not something he just throws over any more.

The rest of the fight plays out from kicking range and is essentially a muay thai bout.

My biggest take away from this fight is the experience gap, Felder is in just his third UFC fight, for Barboza it was his 13th. Felder should have never been in there with Barboza so soon, a massive jump in competition and fighting an elite striker in his prime.

For me what's changed since that fight is obviously the experience gap. Felder's had a lot more fights now, he's rounded out his game and fights a lot smarter, not just spinning over and over. Felder has a decent pressure game now, mixes in the clinch and grappling work much better too.

Since that fight Barboza has kind of been exposed as dangerous when he gets to play his game but predictable and limited when forced to fight out of his comfort zone. He's had some tough match ups and has fought the better competition, but hes also lost to that better competition, and is no doubt a gate keeper to the top 5.

Even though Felder is the older man he's got less fight miles on him, been in less wars, has evolved and added to his game much more.

Barzoza is coming off two prolonged one sided beat downs and getting knocked out, with a little stop gap in the middle to beat up Dan Hooker who had the worst possible gameplan to fight Barboza. Felder on the other hand has one recent loss, a close split decision which he managed to get with one arm, and is coming off of a big dominant win.

If Felder is stupid he stands and bangs and he loses. If Felder comes in prepared and uses all of his weapons and the correct gameplan he wins a clear decision.

Edit - Forgot to add how much Felder's hands have improved, left hook counter against Vick was very nice. He also slips very well now too. He could actually hurt Barboza at boxing range, and he did swell Barboza's eye up early in the first fight with a punch
 
Last edited:
After watching Liana Jojua's last fight, I don't understand how she can be the favorite here. Sarah Moras is getting underrated because of her record, but I think she has a huge ground game advantage and Jojua has bad TDD and balance in general (single leg TDD), and it's not like she was a striking machine either fighting really low level WMMA. I'm aware that Jojua hasn't fought in 1.5 years and might have improved but I don't agree that she should be favorite just because of possible improvements and a nicer looking record.
 
Invictis said:
I just can't get Dustin being mounted by Eddie out of my head. He never mounted anyone else in his entire UFC tenure. The only reason he lost the position is because of the dumb 12-6 elbow he threw.

Khabib's cardio isn't phenomenal, but we've seen Dustin slow down numerous times in the UFC. Against Max he admitted he got tired, and if I remember correctly he was pretty exhausted in rd3 vs Duffy.

Khabib's suffocating top control will almost certainly ensure that Dustin gasses far easier and harder than Khabib.

I just don't see Dustin being able to stuff his shots, despite his wrestling credentials. Unpopular opinion, but I think Al's TDD is a lot better than Poirier's. I feel like Kevin Lee would wipe the floor with Dustin.

With all of that being said, Khabib is unplayable at -375 right now. If he gets to -2xx I'll consider playing him.
Click to expand...

Yet the only reason eddie threw the elbow was because dustin was sitting up against the fence and eddie couldn't land anything significant (yes I know mark henry yelled for an elbow but still).

Dustin has a lot going for himself at this point in his career when facing Khabib: very strong will to win/confidence, great win streak over quality opponents, excellent gym/training partners, body type tailored for the weight class.... Dustin has proven he has heart for days and I can see his hands making Khabib hesitant.

Like you said Khabib -375 is unplayable I agree, im not even sure how much I favor Khabib… But I LOVE Poirier +300 +325
 
CDF and Shamil lines are nuts. They could legit win at >50% clip
 
ApplesVild said:
I've took Felder too, I think he has the more well rounded game and Barboza might just be washed... But some people do have the belief that style match ups don't change
Click to expand...
Masterbettor said:
That's what I expressed on twitter, I think him at +120 can't be a bad bet. No body agreed with me.
Click to expand...

I agree with your guys leans. Felder has got more momentum at the moment. In this rematch, I believe he will come out twice as aggressive, eat the damage, and get the finish via some vintage elbows.
 
There's bound to be some upsets here, and if it is I'm going with Jojo & Silva.

Have a few u on Blaydes, Islam & Muhammed so far. Just haven't picked my dog for betting yet.
 
Gugabe said:
CDF and Shamil lines are nuts. They could legit win at >50% clip
Click to expand...

You favour both outright? Shamils path is clear but what do you think the most likely PTV for CDF is?
 
Gugabe said:
Comes down to the takedown. Shamil better striking and has been pretty solid TDD wise
Click to expand...
You need more than decent TDD to stop Blaydes takedowns. He is consistantly ragdoling everyone at HW. Shamil is also very low output, Blaydes standup might not be amazing but he lands quite a lot when people are scared of the takedown. Also has an insane chin. Lil better odds on Blyades and I would of hammered it
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,091
Messages
55,467,181
Members
174,786
Latest member
plasterby

Share this page

Back
Top